NJwx85 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: The biggest difference this run is the enhanced digging of the SS. It allows for more STJ energy to get out on front of the main trough. This is what we want. A stronger more dynamic system will overcome some warmer air aloft, regardless of the track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 I don't know, I'm not feeling too enthused by these NAM runs. Regular NAM wants to slot the city, and the para wants to turn it to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: I'm not out that far... it looked to jump east around 48 significantly more so than previous? Does LP slip back west? I wouldn't call it a big jump East, just a NE heading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Vastly more dynamic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 We miss the good CCB on the NAM. Ulster was right, storm tracks to the forks and E NE gets bombed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Vastly more dynamic Also the pecip rates over all of PA are much higher this run... I really like that look!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Liking the broader and more uniform precip shield despite slightly further east Vastly more dynamic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Many went from 12-24" on 6z to 6-12" on 12z. However, the 6z seemed immensely overdone. Will be interesting to see the other NAMs pick up the banding as we get closer to start time Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 I'll take the Euro/UKMET over the GFS/NAM every time. This is why non weenies usually don't even entertain the NAM outside of 24 hours if at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Para looks great for everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Nam is clearly trending towards the Euro and GGEM, I wouldn't be surprised if the 18z run showed a massive increase in amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, WintersGrasp said: Many went from 12-24" on 6z to 6-12" on 12z. However, the 6z seemed immensely overdone Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro The 6z matched most guidance from oz last night what's your reasoning it was over done. Anyway with these mesos you will see a lot of jumping around of the best dynamics run to run that is more of a now cast thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, WintersGrasp said: Many went from 12-24" on 6z to 6-12" on 12z. However, the 6z seemed immensely overdone. Will be interesting to see the other NAMs pick up the banding as we get closer to start time Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro Looks like last nights gfs. Solid hit but nothing heavy and a fast mover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: Nam is clearly trending towards the Euro and GGEM, I wouldn't be surprised if the 18z run showed a massive increase in amounts. How so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: Nam is clearly trending towards the Euro and GGEM, I wouldn't be surprised if the 18z run showed a massive increase in amounts. The track was perfect I just don't understand why we didn't get more precip out of it. It was a stronger system than the 6z... mets care to elaborate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Para has over 1.75qpf for nyc. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Dont obsess with QPF guys!!! Please please please..... Best snowfall rates fall when the storms in the process of strengthening, NOT when it reaches it full potential... our LP drops from 995 to 982 as it pulls NE Right through our backyard, with screaming dynamics and a closed ULL... the firehose will be on, don't worry about what the surface maps are spitting at you... mid levels are excellent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 What looks to be estimate for total qpf on the 12z NAM and PARA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 4 minutes ago, snow1 said: How so? More expansive system, a similar track, and it's stronger than 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 The second frame of this GIF tells you all you need to know as to why the system was going to be east. It was apparent maybe 2 or 3 frames before that. The axis of the trough is much less negatively tilted as opposed to 6z so it doesn't turn the corner as quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Personally, I think that the NAM runs were good. All four NAM runs increased the strength of their LPs due to a deeper trough and a better phasing of the STJ energy. 32km went from 1002 to 995 at hr 45, 12km from 1002 to 995, 4km from 994 to 986, and 3km from 994 to 988. All of these changes result in a more dynamic system, so don't stress QPF. Also, I would lean on the higher resolution versions of the NAM, as they will see banding features and other dynamic features better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: More expansive system, a similar track, and it's stronger than 6z. It's over in like 10 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
larrye Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 29 minutes ago, WintersGrasp said: The 6z 12k NAM simply could not get any better for NE NJ (2 feet+ lol)..I'm just hoping it shows something remotely similar to that. The same goes for the big 12z runs coming up for euro, UK, and even GFS...besides the GFS, the 00z runs were perfect. Hold serve!! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro It's the NAM. Chances are very high that the QPF is overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, allgame830 said: What looks to be estimate for total qpf on the 12z NAM and PARA? The nam is .75-1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, Stormlover74 said: The nam is .75-1" Way more on the para and hi res nams Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Yeah, it really is all about the banding. We'll see wild swings on the NAM models. Funny how the 12km NAM and the 4km/3km NAMs have been switching it up. One shows a ton of snow, the other two don't, then the two show a ton of snow and the other one doesn't. All things considered, the NWS really did make a good call putting out the 12-18" watch well ahead of time. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, Snow88 said: Way more on the para and hi res nams Do you trust the hi res stuff? How reliable are they? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, Stormlover74 said: The nam is .75-1" Ok thanks... see I see a big problem with that output since the dynamics were much much beget this run, plus a stronger LP by several MB, also the mid levels were much better and also better interaction!! I would put more stock in the PARA seems more accurate with those above improvements! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 5 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Para has over 1.75qpf for nyc. Wow. Yeah the 3k para evolution that John (Earthlight) just posted on his twitter page is beautiful, wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, larrye said: It's the NAM. Chances are very high that the QPF is overdone. Except Euro/Ukmet/Cmc showing more. Overall I liked this run as well. Upper levels were better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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