Doorman Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 mash up -overlay- of WPC Day 3+4 sfc prog b-line thru the benchmark loop http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 GFS phased, going to be a very intense storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 I think this run actually takes a small step toward the northern s/w catching up again. Seems like the best vorticity advection may have focused farther south though? Probably no major changes either way... just fun to watch and try to learn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 994mb inland over SE MD. Pouring snow Monmouth North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 11, 2017 Author Share Posted March 11, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 985 inland over CNJ. Rain East of the GSP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 11, 2017 Author Share Posted March 11, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just now, NEG NAO said: Yikes. That'll be an intense front end, but it would be to slop/rain and dry slot near the city and coast unless its jerked east from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 GFS is slower and further west, can't make this stuff up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Biblical run just NW of 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 983mb over the forks. 95% of NNJ stays all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 11, 2017 Author Share Posted March 11, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 It's still 8-12" before the changeover East of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Honestly if the GFS is onto something and this turns to a snow to rain that washes it away or turns it to slush, I'd be happier with today's few inches than that. I'd be happy for the inland crew but in mid-March I'm done with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, NEG NAO said: Not really because the GFS is known for over amping systems - only way this can be supported is if the Euro shows it also We'll know shortly if the ukie supports it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: 983mb over the forks. 95% of NNJ stays all snow. For it to go from CNJ (inland ) to the forks that would mean it stays east of KNYC, wouldnt that keep the city mostly ( if not all snow) ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, NortheastPAWx said: The bad trend continues. Even the City gets a foot, unlike with the 12z and 18z runs. The Interior has more, but it's a great storm for much of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, NortheastPAWx said: For you and the HV, it's great. For NYC area, it's ugly. It's close to a foot of snow for NYC. Hardly ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 11, 2017 Author Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: We'll know shortly if the ukie supports it Bias on the GFS over phases systems too early the EURO does better with these types of sytems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, nyblizz44 said: For it to go from CNJ (inland ) to the forks that would mean it stays east of KNYC, wouldnt that keep the city mostly ( if not all snow) ? The city kind of dry slots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, nyblizz44 said: For it to go from CNJ (inland ) to the forks that would mean it stays east of KNYC, wouldnt that keep the city mostly ( if not all snow) ? The city won't stay snow with a low over nj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 CMC brushes the coast lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Honestly if the GFS is onto something and this turns to a snow to rain that washes it away or turns it to slush, I'd be happier with today's few inches than that. I'd be happy for the inland crew but in mid-March I'm done with that. How can you wash away a foot of snow with a 2 hour period of rain? You still get a huge front end dump and then the potential backlash like XMAS 2002 or VDAY 2014. Stop with the negative Nancy stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 11, 2017 Author Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just now, NJwx85 said: The city kind of dry slots. Agreed with that type of track it would be hours of heavy snow then a dry slot filled with freezing rain showers scattered and surface temps stay near or below freezing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: CMC brushes the coast lol That's what you're going to get if you don't have at least a partial phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, nzucker said: How can you wash away a foot of snow with a 2 hour period of rain? You still get a huge front end dump and then the potential backlash like XMAS 2002 or VDAY 2014. Stop with the negative Nancy stuff. Like Super Storm 93 was supposed to do but didnt. Look bttom line, if we get a foot in NYC that would be a historic blizzard for march that we havent had in more than 50 years! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, nzucker said: How can you wash away a foot of snow with a 2 hour period of rain? You still get a huge front end dump and then the potential backlash like XMAS 2002 or VDAY 2014. Stop with the negative Nancy stuff. Yeah this sounds more and more like what happened in March 1993. Even on the south shore we had close to a foot of snow and the rain/sleet could not wash that away. Either way, why does it matter if it does get washed away after the storm- it's Mid March, it wouldn't be sticking around for long either way LOL I understand JM though. He's upset because he missed out on our 30 incher last year. I'm extremely happy to get anything, even all rain, it doesn't matter, because I feel like I already got to experience the most extreme storm this area could ever see anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Ukie moved east. Looks like BM track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Still gonna change many more times. At least we have not seen OTS tracks from nearly all models, so we are on target for what will likely be an impactful storm with details TBD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Ukie looks very nice based off the French site ( Turn you head to see it ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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