Dan76 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 6 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: Sorry for my ignorance, but do higher heights translate to slower cyclone progression? 23 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: So 12z raobs up in Canada are all showing higher heights than models forecast (06z GFS and 00z Euro). EPS sensitivity would suggest that means the Euro could have another slower and westward tick left in it at 12z. More likely slower than westward. Looks like the GEFS would favor a slower tick too for the 12z GFS. Not so much left or right shift though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 5 minutes ago, Dan76 said: So 12z raobs up in Canada are all showing higher heights than models forecast (06z GFS and 00z Euro). EPS sensitivity would suggest that means the Euro could have another slower and westward tick left in it at 12z. More likely slower than westward. Looks like the GEFS would favor a slower tick too for the 12z GFS. Not so much left or right shift though. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 9z SREF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Is the para gfs broken? I noticed it hasnt run since Wednesday on tropical tidbits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 I think it should be mentioned that if parts of the area are getting 12-18" wet snow, then throw in strong gusty winds. That's a recipe for the power going out. I'd try to prepare for that today if anyone needs to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, EasternLI said: I think it should be mentioned that if parts of the area are getting 12-18" wet snow, then throw in strong gusty winds. That's a recipe for the power going out. I'd try to prepare for that today if anyone needs to. I mentioned that somewhere else too. The other thing that's going to magnify that impact is things started budding the other day so the branches will carry more weight (for a short time) before they break off. When you're outside during the storm be hyperaware of heavy flying objects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, EasternLI said: I think it should be mentioned that if parts of the area are getting 12-18" wet snow, then throw in strong gusty winds. That's a recipe for the power going out. I'd try to prepare for that today if anyone needs to. I was going to post the same thing, not sure how wet the snow is going to be since temps are probably going to be in the mid 20's during the storm but nevertheless along with the winds some power outages will be possible if not likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 19 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: Thanks 49 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: So 12z raobs up in Canada are all showing higher heights than models forecast (06z GFS and 00z Euro). EPS sensitivity would suggest that means the Euro could have another slower and westward tick left in it at 12z. More likely slower than westward. Looks like the GEFS would favor a slower tick too for the 12z GFS. Not so much left or right shift though. Thanks for posting. This was my positive "caution" yesterday when the 12z euro came way east. I've noticed guidance in general trending that PNA ridge more amplified just about every run. This should also translate into a more robust northern Stream shortwave. Seems they are still playing catchup--some more than others. My expectation is this should materialize in a better/earlier N Stream phase and the guidance already picking up on this like the GEM, euro and Ukie are closer to verifying at this juncture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 What did the 6z GEFS show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Before it's asked 100 times lol Runs are now as follows Nam- 0400, 1000, 1600, 2200 GFS- 0530, 1130, 1730, 1130 GGEM- 1200, 2400 RGEM- 0520, 1120, 1720, 2320 EURO- 0200, 1400 figure out rest lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 46 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: The pattern still seems to be more similar to that of March 18-19, 1956 and January 26-27, 2015, mainly that the trough is comfortably farther west than in the 2015 case. Right now, I have greater confidence in the 0z ECMWF, 0z UKMET, and 0z EPS. For purposes of reference, here’s a list of New York City’s 12” or greater snowstorms in March (1800-2016): March 14-15, 1834: 12”-15” March 16-17, 1843: 18” (nearly 2 feet in parts of the City) March 16-17, 1867: 12” March 20-22, 1868: More than 12” March 12-14, 1888: 21.0” (parts of the City received nearly 30”) March 15-16, 1896: 12.0” (also a 10.0” snowfall on March 2) March 1-2, 1914: 14.5” March 7-8, 1941: 18.1” March 3-4, 1960: 14.5” All the more impressive when you consider that those March events followed much colder winters. DJF average temps 1888....28.7 1896....33.2 1914....31.9 1941....33.0 1960....36.2 2017....39.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 6 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: I was going to post the same thing, not sure how wet the snow is going to be since temps are probably going to be in the mid 20's during the storm but nevertheless along with the winds some power outages will be possible if not likely. Yeah I mean obviously it won't be an issue everywhere, but with the track that is being modeled and potential mixing issues in play out east, I think somewhere in our forum gets a wet snow dump out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 PNA ridge is higher and SS energy is digging SW slightly more through 24. Slightly more separation between the NS and SS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: PNA ridge is higher and SS energy is digging SW slightly more through 24. This would be the NAM folks for those forgetting there was a time change at 2am today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 At 30, PNA ridge is still sharper, SS energy is farther SW and interacting more with the STJ, and NS energy is farther N. 12z 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Nams slightly slower, as alluded to before, higher hights and better ridging seem to slow this down a tad allowing for a better phase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: At 30, PNA ridge is still sharper, SS energy is farther SW and interacting more with the STJ, and NS energy is farther N. 12z 06z Nice catch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Nams slightly slower, as alluded to before, higher hights and better ridging seem to slow this down a tad allowing for a better phase A nice first step to potentially getting NAMed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 The 6z 12k NAM simply could not get any better for NE NJ (2 feet+ lol)..I'm just hoping it shows something remotely similar to that. The same goes for the big 12z runs coming up for euro, UK, and even GFS...besides the GFS, the 00z runs were perfect. Hold serve!!Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, WintersGrasp said: The 6z 12k NAM simply could not get any better for NE NJ (2 feet+ lol)..I'm just hoping it shows something remotely similar to that. The same goes for the big 12z runs coming up for euro, UK, and even GFS...besides the GFS, the 00z runs were perfect. Hold serve!! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro Structurally the 0 Z GFS was nice & step in right direction but QPF has been consistently off and took a step back 6 Z so that should be the most intriguing 12 z run today IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poleshiftnow Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 6z cmc showing a monster http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Western ridge biggest difference maker, 20-40 mph shift west incoming imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 As expected it's slightly NW through 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, UlsterCountySnowZ said: I'm thinking coasts just fine, Nams a deeper storm already, much stronger I just want to see what kind rates per hour NAM is looking at because it tends to excel at that kind of detail earlier than the other mesos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, UlsterCountySnowZ said: I'm thinking coasts just fine, Nams a deeper storm already, much stronger By 5 millibars at this timeframe. Nam is looking great. Thinking we're about to get NAM'ed... billy go on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: I'm thinking coasts just fine, Nams a deeper storm already, much stronger if its 48 hours out its in the heart of the storm. whats it looking like Billy? Hellacious rates from TTN to HPN and points in between? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 The biggest difference this run is the enhanced digging of the SS. It allows for more STJ energy to get out on front of the main trough. The energy is slower as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 12z NAM is at least 10-12 hours of moderate to heavy snow for the immediate coast before any threat of mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keno19 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Yea looks like the NAM is jumping on board for an all snow event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, NJwx85 said: 12z NAM is at least 10-12 hours of moderate to heavy snow for the immediate coast before any threat of mixing. I'm not out that far... it looked to jump east around 48 significantly more so than previous? Does LP slip back west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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