ILoveWinter Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 hour ago, Paragon said: Well looking at all the pictures of the 10 foot drifts from March 1888 it was mismeasured at 21" other nearby areas like Brooklyn, Queens and Long Island reported between 26"-38" and the well known 44" at New Haven. So it should be that but instead it's March 1896 at 31" which was the snowiest month of all time for NYC until the recent bout of big storms. Looking for something more recent- February and March 1967 both had 30" of snow at Upton, NY on Long Island as well as the latest reading of 0 or below right around March 20th. Measuring issues in Manhattan...even in 1888! Always found that hilarious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 9 minutes ago, PB GFI said: Chris , check out day 7 now . I posted the day 10 Euro snow map away . Definitely a keep sake . I like 2 inches of liquid here / I think this will be a great March storm Paul, the snowfall rates on Tuesday would be amazing if we get a 6 hr panel like this to verify. I think 1.6 of liquid is the highest that the Euro has gone in a 6 hr period when it was snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, Paragon said: Personally I think that by tonight's 0z runs whatever is going to happen with Tuesday's storm will be all set, and we should start discussing the next two ;-) I already see next Saturday's storms on the major media outlet's forecasts lol. There was good sampling yesterday for 0z it's why you saw the QPF spike and track come into focus . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, ILoveWinter said: Measuring issues in Manhattan...even in 1888! Always found that hilarious. Yes but it was a bit more understandable back then, the city was a wreck and over 400 people died in that storm. But when you look at the pictures, it looks like the Swiss Alps lol. On another note, Unc was right in comparing this to the 1959-60 winter. With a possible upcoming El Nino for next winter, the chances for next winter being like 1960-61...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: Paul, the snowfall rates on Tuesday would be amazing if we get a 6 hr panel like this to verify. I think 1.6 of liquid is the highest that the Euro has gone in a 6 hr period when it was snow. Obscene, but beautiful. 2.4 totals for you and I at 0z. The 0z line never gets N of Toms River . Last nights GEM/UKIE/EURO runs were just epic. Now we need to hold . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, PB GFI said: There was good sampling yesterday for 0z it's why you saw the QPF spike and track come into focus . Yes and I think it was why the models started converging. Good forecasting by you to see this as the best period of the year. We have some chances at getting back to back 40" seasons in two of our mildest winters ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 6 minutes ago, PB GFI said: The entire coast including the city will go to a Blizzard Warning . I will never forecast 30 inches even if I saw it . Not impossible , just aggressive. In terms of coverage its greater for this board. I think there are heavier snows back into the Appalachians and no sharp cut off here . Barring a total collapse at 12z, we will see isolated jackpots of 30 inches or greater. Back in the blizzard of '96 I received 30 inches, while Elizabeth N.J. jackpot with 36! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, NutleyBlizzard said: Barring a total collapse at 12z, we will see isolated jackpots of 30 inches or greater. Back in the blizzard of '96 I received 30 inches, while Elizabeth N.J. jackpot with 36! Trust me , I hope that happens . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Man I'm tired... rgem resembles Nam/euro ish both surface and aloft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 19 minutes ago, PB GFI said: Obscene, but beautiful. 2.4 totals for you and I at 0z. The 0z line never gets N of Toms River . Last nights GEM/UKIE/EURO runs were just epic. Now we need to hold . We can get some wild snowfall rates if the phase goes off just right like it did in February 2013. It would be great if we could see the February 2013 50dbz snowfall rates closer to our area instead of to our NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 PB,Bluewave..thoughts on rain/snow line?...reading/watching mixed opinions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 19 minutes ago, PB GFI said: There was good sampling yesterday for 0z it's why you saw the QPF spike and track come into focus . Yep, both the extra data generated from the NHC dropsonde runs and the PacNW key system finally being over land and sampled much better. Much more accurate and data-rich initial conditions make for better model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, tim said: PB,Bluewave..thoughts on rain/snow line?...reading/watching mixed opinions. The 0z Euro halts the 0 line at Toms River then collapses back South. I think today we will get a better handle on the midlevels and poss areas of convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 There are 3 NAMs. 12km and 3km were great for the city, while 4km has a half a foot only, in and out. GFS is similar to the 4km. Just putting it out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 9 minutes ago, Morris said: There are 3 NAMs. 12km and 3km were great for the city, while 4km has a half a foot only, in and out. GFS is similar to the 4km. Just putting it out there. The 4k is so super high resolution it really loses credibility outside of 24 hours watch it continue to show a better solution as we get closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 7 minutes ago, Morris said: There are 3 NAMs. 12km and 3km were great for the city, while 4km has a half a foot only, in and out. GFS is similar to the 4km. Just putting it out there. Yeah. I think it's important to pay some attention to the models with outlier solutions. I'd really like to have these models fold to the EURO, UKIE, and GEM today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 18 minutes ago, Morris said: There are 3 NAMs. 12km and 3km were great for the city, while 4km has a half a foot only, in and out. GFS is similar to the 4km. Just putting it out there. Wouldn't worry about 4K or 3k this far out, Nam/para Nam only... gfs is about 75+ miles east of the 4K Nam, the precip depiction at the surface is just weak this far out 4k also, still gets nearly a foot to Albany and still snowing... GFS 75 miles north of NYC only sees 3-5" tops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 4 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Wouldn't worry about 4K or 3k this far out, Nam/para Nam only... gfs is about 75+ miles east of the 4K Nam, the precip depiction at the surface is just weak this far out 4k also, still gets nearly a foot to Albany and still snowing... GFS 75 miles north of NYC only sees 3-5" tops Isn't the 3km NAM the PARA-NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Wouldn't worry about 4K or 3k this far out, Nam/para Nam only... gfs is about 75+ miles east of the 4K Nam, the precip depiction at the surface is just weak this far out The 12z suite especially will be important to see whether the GFS is completely worthless or is the first to sniff out what is really going on here. The model may stink, but it was the first to figure out what was about to go wrong in Jan 2015. And that worries me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, Morris said: Isn't the 3km NAM the PARA-NAM? The 3k is an NCEP WRF model and I guess kinda a para... but the actual NCEP Nam parallel is 12k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 That 06 GFS put some jitters back into me after waking up and seeing the Euro. I hope it is just a hiccup like the 12Z Euro yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 4 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: That 06 GFS put some jitters back into me adter waking up and seeing the Euro. I hope it is just a hiccup like the 12Z Euro yesterday. Eps had a major shift west as well 12z 00z majority members stil west Eps control eps mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 That EPS west is very confidence building. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 We can test the new hi-res 3km Nam's abilities with this upcoming storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: We can test the new hi-res 3km Nam's abilities with this upcoming storm. Those are some serious 1 hour rates if I am reading that correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Per met in NE, 12z RAOBs in Canada finding higher heights than GFS and Euro had modeled. Possible speed implications. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 The pattern still seems to be more similar to that of March 18-19, 1956 and January 26-27, 2015, mainly that the trough is comfortably farther west than in the 2015 case. Right now, I have greater confidence in the 0z ECMWF, 0z UKMET, and 0z EPS. For purposes of reference, here’s a list of New York City’s 12” or greater snowstorms in March (1800-2016): March 14-15, 1834: 12”-15” March 16-17, 1843: 18” (nearly 2 feet in parts of the City) March 16-17, 1867: 12” March 20-22, 1868: More than 12” March 12-14, 1888: 21.0” (parts of the City received nearly 30”) March 15-16, 1896: 12.0” (also a 10.0” snowfall on March 2) March 1-2, 1914: 14.5” March 7-8, 1941: 18.1” March 3-4, 1960: 14.5” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 5 minutes ago, Hoth said: Per met in NE, 12z RAOBs in Canada finding higher heights than GFS and Euro had modeled. Possible speed implications. Sorry for my ignorance, but do higher heights translate to slower cyclone progression? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 10 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: Those are some serious 1 hour rates if I am reading that correctly. The 0z run was showing 3-5" per hr snowfall rates at the peak of the storm where the best banding sets up. It will be interesting to see what it looks like once we get to within its best 24 hr range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: The pattern still seems to be more similar to that of March 18-19, 1956 and January 26-27, 2015, mainly that the trough is comfortably farther west than in the 2015 case. Right now, I have greater confidence in the 0z ECMWF, 0z UKMET, and 0z EPS. For purposes of reference, here’s a list of New York City’s 12” or greater snowstorms in March (1800-2016): March 14-15, 1834: 12”-15” March 16-17, 1843: 18” (nearly 2 feet in parts of the City) March 16-17, 1867: 12” March 20-22, 1868: More than 12” March 12-14, 1888: 21.0” (parts of the City received nearly 30”) March 15-16, 1896: 12.0” (also a 10.0” snowfall on March 2) March 1-2, 1914: 14.5” March 7-8, 1941: 18.1” March 3-4, 1960: 14.5” Thanks, Don as always great info. close contenders 3/20 - 3/21 1958: 11.8" 3/18 1956: 11.6" 3/13 1993: 10.6 3/21 - 3/22 1967: 9.8" 3/5 1981: 8.6" 3/1-3/2 2009: 8.3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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