swamplover56 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Putting together a bunch for banter if I can stay up. 32k (aka the regualar nam) has 20-30 through all of nnj and NYC with lollipops 30" plus in Bergen county. Waiting on 3km (para nam maps) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveTinNY Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Upton AFD at 5:00am: Based on competing factors and current uncertainty...still thinking 12 to 18 inches of snowfall is a solid most likely solution for much of the region...with locally up to 2 ft possible in heaviest and longest duration banding. Lower amounts possible across NW hills if eastern edge of guidance envelope verifies...while a shift towards western members would introduce mixing potential for far E/LI/Se CT and lower amounts. Expect some more clarity on this in the next 24 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 2 hours ago, The 4 Seasons said: Well folks this could be a march to remember, for the record books. What is NYC all time snowstorms for march anyone know? Well looking at all the pictures of the 10 foot drifts from March 1888 it was mismeasured at 21" other nearby areas like Brooklyn, Queens and Long Island reported between 26"-38" and the well known 44" at New Haven. So it should be that but instead it's March 1896 at 31" which was the snowiest month of all time for NYC until the recent bout of big storms. Looking for something more recent- February and March 1967 both had 30" of snow at Upton, NY on Long Island as well as the latest reading of 0 or below right around March 20th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 2 hours ago, SACRUS said: aside from 1888 NYC March snowstorms 3/3-3/4 1960 : 14.5" 3/20 - 3/21 1958: 11.8" 3/18 1956: 11.6" 3/13 1993: 10.6 3/21 - 3/22 1967: 9.8" 3/5 1981: 8.6" 3/1-3/2 2009: 8.3" Tony, wasn't there an 18 inch March snowstorm from back in the 1940s somewhere? I think that one had the 24 hr record for March snowfall if I'm not mistaken. Also, should include the two big April snowstorms in this list 1915 and 1982. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 hour ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: 21.1 inches 1888 second place in March is 18.1 inches on March 7-8 1941. Would love to see them both go down. Watch the Conservancy F it up somehow. They always do and trust me they will again. Yeah thats the 18" storm I was talking about from 1941. BTW and you would definitely get this. CPcouldn'tmeasuresnow even back in March 1888- if you look at the pics, you see it's a lot more 21" lol. Some of the other observers around the city recorded 26-35 inches and 38 on the north shore of LI and 44" in southern CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 hour ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: Your missing quite a few. There have been 9 storms 10 inches or more in March in NYC plus 2 in April. TWC was being moronic again- last week Jim Cantore (who should know better) said there had NEVER been a 10 inch snowstorm at NYC after March 10th which is why he was doubting this one would happen there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 6 z nam is 2-3 feet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 andd then you got the 6z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, Paragon said: lol what did it do? keeps the heavier precip over baltimore area. they see 10-18". otherwise everyone else here sees a 4-8" storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, Snowlover11 said: keeps the heavier precip over baltimore area. they see 10-18". otherwise everyone else here sees a 4-8" storm. GFS is in dire need of an upgrade. its a lower resolution model. It can more or less handle the run of the mill snowstorm, but when it comes to the big dogs its out of its league. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 5 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said: keeps the heavier precip over baltimore area. they see 10-18". otherwise everyone else here sees a 4-8" storm. Well that seems to be the last holdout right now as everything else is at least 1.5" LE area wide (which is kinda amazing 48 hours out). Got a few runs for it join the party. Then again in a few runs everything else could swing back to the GFS. This is why I didn't become a meteorologist lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 The euro and gfs basically switched spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, Snow88 said: It has done this many times with huge storms The upgrades don't really help the GFS because the base state of the model is still bad. I think in 2-3 years time the GFS is replaced entirely with another model. That may be when we see some movement towards the UKMET and ECMWF on the verification Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 7 minutes ago, Snow88 said: You know I have liked an area wide 15 to 20 for 4 days now . The question is where to stick my 25 . Where the exact banding sets up always needs be seen really close up . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 mt holy new max snow map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 9 minutes ago, PB GFI said: You know I have liked an area wide 15 to 20 for 4 days now . The question is where to stick my 25 . Where the exact banding sets up always needs be seen really close up . What are the major differences between this storm and the one last January, which was historic across most of the densely populated area? 1) more coverage of heavy snow? 2) more progressive, so will not last as long? thefore.... 3) lower precip totals (no 3" LE)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Can anyone post the gfs I'm on my mobile. It seems completely ubsurd this close in and compared to everything else, I need to figure out what went wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 20 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The upgrades don't really help the GFS because the base state of the model is still bad. I think in 2-3 years time the GFS is replaced entirely with another model. That may be when we see some movement towards the UKMET and ECMWF on the verification weren't they supposed to be going 4DVAR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 No surprise that the Euro moved to this solution at 0z when the energy came ashore over the PAC NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said: That's the problem with this hobby we have. We want to see the most extreme solution a model has to offer; like a lot of them are currently showing. But when you have an outlier showing otherwise, you believe its wrong but it still plants the seed of doubt in your mind. Believe me I'm going to be on pins and needles once the 12z model runs commence. ...my 'pins and needles' will be watching the rain/snow line as the storm evolves..still not clear where that sets up..always on the edge here on ELI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 4 minutes ago, Paragon said: What are the major differences between this storm and the one last January, which was historic across most of the densely populated area? 1) more coverage of heavy snow? 2) more progressive, so will not last as long? thefore.... 3) lower precip totals (no 3" LE)? Jan was colder so ratios were higher . This is a true 10 to 1 for the city and most others . The 15 inch line will go all the way to State College with this one . Both will end up being 24 hour storms , theres frontogenesis with this , theres a CCB and the ULL has to swing through . So its not a quick mover . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 4 minutes ago, bluewave said: No surprise that the Euro moved to this solution at 0z when the energy came ashore over the PAC NW. Chris , check out day 7 now . I posted the day 10 Euro snow map away . Definitely a keep sake . I like 2 inches of liquid here / I think this will be a great March storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, PB GFI said: Jan was colder so ratios were higher . This is a true 10 to 1 for the city and most others . The 15 inch line will go all the way to State College with this one . Both will end up being 24 hour storms , theres frontogenesis with this , theres a CCB and the ULL has to swing through . So its not a quick mover . So a March storm therefore the snow will be wetter. Your thoughts on greater impact- this storm because of wider coverage and higher winds? Maybe some sweet spot that has an extremely high LE can get 30" with this one too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 8 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Can anyone post the gfs I'm on my mobile. It seems completely ubsurd this close in and compared to everything else, I need to figure out what went wrong Chases convection. Go pull up its Jan 6z run a day prior to that storm . It printed out .15 ( 36 hours out ) . Airports got 8 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, PB GFI said: Chris , check out day 7 now . I posted the day 10 Euro snow map away . Definitely a keep sake . I like 2 inches of liquid here / I think this will be a great March storm Next Saturday- another qpf bomb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said: NAM this season once in its range has been deadly accurate. That's pretty ominous with what the model is depicting now. Also remember it scored the coup with the big blizzard last year too, so it's been on a roll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, Paragon said: So a March storm therefore the snow will be wetter. Your thoughts on greater impact- this storm because of wider coverage and higher winds? Maybe some sweet spot that has an extremely high LE can get 30" with this one too? The entire coast including the city will go to a Blizzard Warning . I will never forecast 30 inches even if I saw it . Not impossible , just aggressive. In terms of coverage its greater for this board. I think there are heavier snows back into the Appalachians and no sharp cut off here . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 4 minutes ago, Paragon said: Next Saturday- another qpf bomb? Out in fantasy land , yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, PB GFI said: Out in fantasy land , yes. Personally I think that by tonight's 0z runs whatever is going to happen with Tuesday's storm will be all set, and we should start discussing the next two ;-) I already see next Saturday's storms on the major media outlets' forecasts lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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