JetsPens87 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, nyblizz44 said: looks like the improved upper levels of the NAM and the GFS have been translated by the CMC and the UKie. Now all we have to do is wait 2 hours and see if the Euro is going to play ball I like this post. I was just thinking the same thing to be honest. Looking at H5 the differences are slight between the GFS and CMC and I am talking even up to about 60 hours. I'll start with the CMC Vs. The former being slightly stronger with the lead shortwave and slightly sharper with the "latch" around the Ohio river valley and entering VA. The GFS on the other hand is ever so slightly sloppier and it can't get a clean latch because the trailing ULL energy takes slightly longer to latch on. This just goes to show how delicate this situation is and a matter of mere hours can make a huge difference, I'd expect we haven't even begun to see the end of some of the solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 If dr. No sticks with Dr no, then we just have an outlier situation really. The other guidance is fairly clustered on or in the benchmark. So if you say ' wait for the euro,' why? To see its not an outlier? Not sure what that means thats different than you can say right now. night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 A different view of the Canadian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, Rjay said: A different view of the Canadian We will snow after this as the ULL swings through on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 45 minutes ago, SACRUS said: 3/12 00Z Suite QPF range NYC area / Snow SREF: 1.20 - 1.45 / 10 - 18 inches NAM : 1.30 - 1.55 / mix/rain (4- 8 inches) P NAM: 1.35 - 1.56 / 10 - 18 inches GFS: 0.80 - 1.10 / 8 - 12 inches RGEM: 1.20 : 8 - 14 inches GGEM: 2.05 - 2.30 / 20 - 27 inches UKMET: Sacrus is back!! Love these posts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 The German model looks really nice as well. I've watched enough Hogan's Heroes to know where this is going, though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 So the Canadian is 12-16" in 6 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 6 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said: I like this post. I was just thinking the same thing to be honest. Looking at H5 the differences are slight between the GFS and CMC and I am talking even up to about 60 hours. I'll start with the CMC Vs. The former being slightly stronger with the lead shortwave and slightly sharper with the "latch" around the Ohio river valley and entering VA. The GFS on the other hand is ever so slightly sloppier and it can't get a clean latch because the trailing ULL energy takes slightly longer to latch on. This just goes to show how delicate this situation is and a matter of mere hours can make a huge difference, I'd expect we haven't even begun to see the end of some of the solutions. Honored. In many ways writing is about externalizing an internal image and that's how I see the latch effect: like 2 Olympic ice skaters looking to make the perfect catch in the air and then having to make the perfect Landing. Complex but when perfection unleashed it's no different than an OBJ 1 hander in back if the end zone ( I realize that is the first time in the history of the form that ice skating in pro football have been mentioned in the same post with a perfect phase) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 3/12 00Z Suite QPF range NYC area / Snow SREF: 1.20 - 1.45 / 10 - 18 inches NAM : 1.30 - 1.55 / mix/rain (4- 8 inches) P NAM: 1.35 - 1.56 / 10 - 18 inches GFS: 0.80 - 1.10 / 8 - 12 inches RGEM: 1.20 : 8 - 14 inches GGEM: 2.05 - 2.30 / 20 - 27 inches UKMET: 1.88 / 15 - 22 inches NAVGEM (NOGAPS): 1.45- 1.65 / 12 - 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 More from the Ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Holy sh*t. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 UKIE is 48mm/ 1.88" QPF Prob 15-22 inches snow pending on rations from start to finish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: Holy sh*t. Is that 3 inches (75mm) touching the south shore of Long Island? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, sferic said: Is that 3 inches (75mm) touching the south shore of Long Island? That's about 50-60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, sferic said: Is that 3 inches (75mm) touching the south shore of Long Island? 2 minutes ago, sferic said: Is that 3 inches (75mm) touching the south shore of Long Island? Thats the 50-75 shade so likely 50-60MM 2+ inches QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, sferic said: Is that 3 inches (75mm) touching the south shore of Long Island? No, I think it's 50mm (2 feet). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, Rjay said: More from the Ukie Man, that's pretty incredible. Widespread 1.5" QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Can't make this crap up, Gefs look like they go pretty Far East now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Can't make this crap up, Gefs look like they go pretty Far East now Everything came west except the GEFS lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, Snow88 said: Everything came west except the GEFS lol Significantly east... I hate these models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Can't make this crap up, Gefs look like they go pretty Far East now Yea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 6 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Can't make this crap up, Gefs look like they go pretty Far East now I think that precip cut back because the GEFS shifted the super west members back towards the BM. Precip along the coast remained almost constant, while precip for far NW regions decreased (most likely because of the decrease of coast huggers). Also, it looks like there are slight timing differences between the members in the 00z. 00z 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
e46and2 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 the lean on the gefs makes it look like two distinct camps, around half the members phase in time with a track that crushes the area and the other half have a late or very sloppy phase and it scoots east and weaker out to sea...it creates a mean that shifts east but i see two distinct scenarios on the gefs. i'd say it's a 40% win run for the gefs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: I think that precip cut back because the GEFS shifted the super west members back towards the BM. Precip along the coast remained almost constant, while precip for far NW regions decreased (most likely because of the decrease of coast huggers). Also, it looks like there are slight timing differences between the members in the 00z. 00z 18z Agree GEFS gives NYC around 12 inches with more just to the west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 GGEM is 54MM/ 2.12" QPF at NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, e46and2 said: the lean on the gefs makes it look like two distinct camps, around half the members phase in time with a track that crushes the area and the other half have a late or very sloppy phase and it scoots east and weaker out to sea...it creates a mean that shifts east but i see two distinct scenarios on the gefs. i'd say it's a 40% win run for the gefs. Yea it's not really a matter of the GEFS shifting east or west, it's a matter of timing. On the 18z they all were clustered for the most part around a certain latitude at that time, on the 00z there are half that would get the phase in time and half that are extremely progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 10 minutes until a very important EURO run. If feels like a lot hinges on this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, KeithB said: 10 minutes until a very important EURO run. If feels like a lot hinges on this one I went to Starbucks right before it closed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 8 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said: Yea it's not really a matter of the GEFS shifting east or west, it's a matter of timing. On the 18z they all were clustered for the most part around a certain latitude at that time, on the 00z there are half that would get the phase in time and half that are extremely progressive. But why is it one extreme or the other why doesn't the Ensemble show partial phase camp ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 nice.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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