NortheastPAWx Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Nyc metro gets crushed..positive trends so far Not really. Less than 1" QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 GFS tracks off Delmarva, and ACY, to just west of BM to S of cape cod... I fully expect further runs to expand the heavier precip shield west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: GFS looks much better at 500 but the convection the east drags the LP, unlike the nam, allowing allowing it to slide further north before moving east It looks like things were a little flatter off the east coast. I'm sure one could make an argument about convection being poorly modeled and pumping up heights more come verification time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 GFS almost closed off at hour 60 Very close but great run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, Juliancolton said: It looks like things were a little flatter off the east coast. I'm sure one could make an argument about convection being poorly modeled and pumping up heights more come verification time... Julian you wanna weigh in on your thoughts between the pull east from convection on GFS/euro compared to long range RGEM/Nam... I know it's a silly question comparing them, but i find it valid in this scanario where we're seeing so much fluctuation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: GFS almost closed off at hour 60 Very close but great run We have so much time too guys... it's not coming for over 50 hours lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 If memory serves me correct, in these kinds of storms, the "jumping to the convection" issue tends to sort itself as we approach 0 hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, UlsterCountySnowZ said: We have so much time too guys... it's not coming for over 50 hours lol Well, that's the thing - we've got 8 more model cycles before go time and peeps were ready to hit the ledge after a few shaky OP runs. Pace yourselves, folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, ILoveWinter said: If memory serves me correct, in these kinds of storms, the "jumping to the convection" issue tends to sort itself as we approach 0 hour. Nam/RGEM always sniff it out first but usually inside 24hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 A great event is on its way , I hope you guys enjoy it . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: What? You mean the Nam is trending towards the GFS and Euro Imo Nams not trending towards anything but itself... it's by far the most dynamic/western track... GFS and euro aren't even close to a nam storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, danstorm said: Well, that's the thing - we've got 8 more model cycles before go time and peeps were ready to hit the ledge after a few shaky OP runs. Pace yourselves, folks Wise advice but remember two things : 1.) for non pros, passion is the driver even when sprinkled with intellect. 2.) also, many on here are on the younger side, which has a lot of positives but by the same token remember when you were in your mid 20s or younger: patience is not a trait that comes with anything but exprience and age! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, PB GFI said: A great event is on its way , I hope you guys enjoy it . I hope so, but I can't share you degree of confidence at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said: If memory serves me correct, in these kinds of storms, the "jumping to the convection" issue tends to sort itself as we approach 0 hour. There are times when it is legit, but usually there is a reason for it such a disorganized southern vort where a spurious piece of energy sometimes causes it to occur. A strong consolidated vort at the upper levels it won't usually happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 15 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: That looks very impressive. What's the link to the extended RGEM? Don, I can't find it anywhere on meteocentre. Can someone give us a hand? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 GGEM crushes EVERYONE. NJ, NYC, LHV, LI, you name it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Canadian is a monster !!! 2 feet for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 0z GGEM is a monster hit Delete if this doesn't belong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Ggem crusher, gives a nod towards the nam the ggem is like the child caught in a custody battle between parents (Nam+Euro) back and forth.. with the RGEM as its little brother who lives with mom(Nam) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Latest Canadian run gives me reasons to live LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 In monster events like these we tend to see amounts increase the closer we get to the storm unless there's a major shift in the track or precip types of course. I hope tonight's Euro delivers. Looks like time of start will be closer to midnight as models have sped things up a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 6 minutes ago, NYCGreg said: I hope so, but I can't share you degree of confidence at this point. A Blizzard on its way. You guys have to stop swinging to every run. Identify the kind of system this is and realize its not a run of the mill system Look at the GEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ej257 snow lover Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: In monster events like these we tend to see amounts increase the closer we get to the storm unless there's a major shift in the track or precip types of course. I hope tonight's Euro delivers. 100% truth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Ggem crusher, gives a nod towards the nam the ggem is like the child caught in a custody battle between parents (Nam+Euro) back and forth.. with the RGEM as its little brother who lives with mom(Nam) Who's the gfs in that scenario? The drunk uncle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowBlitzkrieg Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 QPF on the GGEM is out of control, widespread 2.0, as high as 2.6 in CNJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 0z CMC is 20+ for the NYC area and surrounding areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Ggem crusher, gives a nod towards the nam the ggem is like the child caught in a custody battle between parents (Nam+Euro) back and forth.. with the RGEM as its little brother who lives with mom(Nam) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Nice to see a piece of guidance not chase convection. Too bad it's the Canadian. Beautiful run though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 CMC is basically the Euro before it crapped out this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 The Canadian is beautiful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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