donsutherland1 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said: March 2001 honestly may one of the closest as already posted. On the 84 hour CIPS list in the NE US sector there are a few notable dates show, but given these are just sectors it does not usually grasp the entire pattern associated with the storm. The notable dates at 84 hours are 02/14/07 02/05/95 and 03/13/1993 The upper air pattern in March 2001 was quite different from what is currently forecast this time around. I'm not sure how the CIPS analogs are picked out, but there are often inconsistencies between the CIPS analogs and the forecast upper air pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 The online hype has begun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The online hype has begun I have to settle for significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The online hype has begun Is there even a such thing anymore as a "crippling" snowstorm.. i mean really, let shrink about crippling means.. sandy was crippling.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Is there even a such thing as anymore as a "crippling" snowstorm.. i mean really, let shrink about crippling means.. sandy was crippling.... What is beyond crippling? Snowmageddon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 The NAM is way west for those who want to look for pure entertainment. It would actually be similar to Christmas 02 if you took it literally, there would probably be an onslaught of snow to the coast somewhere near 96-102 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Not to be taken serious but Nams LP is practically identical to GFS hr 84... same spot.. maybe 25 miles west of GFS Idc what anyone says but when the GFS ukie and Nam have the nearly identical tracks, with the euro as an outlier, I take notice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The NAM is way west for those who want to look for pure entertainment. It would actually be similar to Christmas 02 if you took it literally, there would probably be an onslaught of snow to the coast somewhere near 96-102 Nam goes straight east from 81 to 84 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Not to be taken serious but Nams LP is practically identical to GFS hr 84... same spot.. maybe 25 miles west of GFS Didn't you say you were really looking forward to the NAM tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just now, White Gorilla said: Didn't you say you were really looking forward to the NAM tonight? Yea but I'm not taking it as forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 11, 2017 Author Share Posted March 11, 2017 on this solution anyone North and West of the Raritan River in NJ would be mostly snow throughout and past 84 the storm is starting to move off the coast so rain will change to snow further south and east if you extended this out past 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just now, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Yea but I'm not taking it as forecast Yeah but I get it when you see it in combination with other guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Nam goes straight east from 81 to 84 hours Don't wanna debate the 84 hour Nam, but it goes NE to Delmarva not straight east lol... Nam would track nowhere near the benchmark like the euro.. it would have to literally start pushing straight east OTS at hour 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaPo Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 15 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The online hype has begun JFC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 One takeaway is that the NAM continues the nearly unanimous model trend of less northern stream involvement, to the point of almost ruling out a full phase at this point I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 5 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Not to be taken serious but Nams LP is practically identical to GFS hr 84... same spot.. maybe 25 miles west of GFS Idc what anyone says but when the GFS ukie and Nam have the nearly identical tracks, with the euro as an outlier, I take notice There's definitely time for shifts back and forth. Personally I'm leaning towards a track closer to the coast than the Euro but wrapped up, so that the cold air makes it close to the center. The only reason the GFS looks so warm is because of the weird stuff it's doing to the low to string it out. The low can make it to the twin forks and NYC might still be all or mostly snow. We've been seeing more amped than expected tracks up to this point at this range, no reason to think this won't follow the same pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, Juliancolton said: One takeaway is that the NAM continues the nearly unanimous model trend of less northern stream involvement, to the point of almost ruling out a full phase at this point I would think. The further West that Northern stream trough gets the greater the chances of a 12z GGEM solution. You want the phase, a clean one at that to maximize the full intensity potential. Most people wouldn't mix with the type of blocking forecast, at least not for the first 12 hours. Even if the storm tucks in, those dynamics will rapidly cool the mid levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: There's definitely time for shifts back and forth. Personally I'm leaning towards a track closer to the coast than the Euro but wrapped up, so that the cold air makes it close to the center. The only reason the GFS looks so warm is because of the weird stuff it's doing to the low to string it out. The low can make it to the twin forks and NYC might still be all or mostly snow. We've been seeing more amped than expected tracks up to this point at this range, no reason to think this won't follow the same pattern. Agreed.. I doubt coast rains, I also doubt this is a 40/70 storm like euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jets Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Ask me how does that low in Ohio valley strengthen on the nam?. Shouldn't it be bringing energy to the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 4 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: One takeaway is that the NAM continues the nearly unanimous model trend of less northern stream involvement, to the point of almost ruling out a full phase at this point I would think. I think you really need the phase for a coast hugger track. The flow is still progressive and kicking the trough east, so although the trough is going negative, it's overall shifting east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: I think you really need the phase for a coast hugger track. The flow is still progressive and kicking the trough east, so although the trough is going negative, it's overall shifting east. under that scenario-the NAM's solution doesnt make alot of sense-(of course we're talking about the 84 hr nam which is mostly useless on a good day) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: under that scenario-the NAM's solution doesnt make alot of sense-(of course we're talking about the 84 hr nam which is mostly useless on a good day) I haven't looked at the run so I can't say either. It's really not useful until another day or so. The globals and ensembles are much better at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: under that scenario-the NAM's solution doesnt make alot of sense-(of course we're talking about the 84 hr nam which is mostly useless on a good day) The NAM is not very good at this range on anything very dynamic and complicated. Clippers or weak type lows it can sometimes do well, but rarely on something as convoluted and deep as this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 This is the type of event where the NAM will be far too amped up and wet until 24 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 GFS has initialized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: This is the type of event where the NAM will be far too amped up and wet until 24 hours out. Heard this about 3 times this season lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 The PAR NAM is very GFS esque. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Heard this about 3 times this season lol... This is the first event of this type since Jan 16'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The PAR NAM is very GFS esque. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Check out how the PV vorticity lobe retreats farther north with each run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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