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March 13 - 15 Major Winter Storm Potential


NEG NAO

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3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Don't worry about stuff like that at this stage. Tonight should be a key run as well as tomorrow for final trends. 

The PLUME must have some NAM like members mixed in, cutting the total, while the GFS Cobb is just the GFS.

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Just now, CIK62 said:

The PLUME must have some NAM like members mixed in, cutting the total, while the GFS Cobb is just the GFS.

The NAM is very often too amped with systems like these at this stage, which throws the SREF off. But it's definitely still worth watching global models for shifts west tonight or tomorrow (I think the track ends up west of the GFS/Euro this afternoon). I don't think it ends up like the NAM but nothing can be ruled out. 

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1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

4k Nam and 3k Nam is a lot colder than the regular Nam

I second that emotion in a BIG way. It would be great if someone who is certain could brifely explain the differences between the 3 NAMS. I presumed they were different levels of meso? But if they are coming up with entirely different temp profiles obviously this greatly outcomes from 2-4 + rain to 8-12 + mix to 18 ++ potentially

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1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

The NAM is trying in its own way to emphasize the low offshore but the sloppiness that it brings the system up seems to keep the hugging the coast reflection for too long. The surface low on the NAM at hr60 looks to be near Camden, NJ. The Para NAM looks like it has a better idea. 

I posted earlier, that the para Nam at 500 was consistent with the GFS/ukie... yet was able to allow for expansion of western shield.. para Nam does look like best bet.. if you wanna look at the nam... the RGEM/srefs being so close to the nam at hr 48 raises a flag that the western pull back may be coming on other Global's tonight or tomorrow with better sampling 

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1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

I posted earlier, that the para Nam at 500 was consistent with the GFS/ukie... yet was able to allow for expansion of western shield.. para Nam does look like best bet.. if you wanna look at the nam... the RGEM/srefs being so close to the nam at hr 48 raises a flag that the western pull back may be coming on other Global's tonight or tomorrow with better sampling 

My idea is a wrapped up low (not a sloppy NAM-like mess) going through between Block Island and Nantucket. I'm not buying an escape SE of the benchmark with an energetic system like this. Storms have ended up on the NW end of guidance at this range, don't see much reason to think differently now. But such a track likely isn't bad for NYC, since the cold air will be wrapped in well. 

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Just now, husky0101 said:

Is it only me or is the precip pushed out of our region sooner and sooner with each model run?

We see this constantly... models always show these long duration 24-36hr events 4-6 days out.. and speed it up as we draw near.. precip always starts and ends quicker than modeled 

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1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

We see this constantly... models always show these long duration 24-36hr events 4-6 days out.. and speed it up as we draw near.. precip always starts and ends quicker than modeled 

Except last January when we had the blizzard which was  27 hours long

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