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March 13 - 15 Major Winter Storm Potential


NEG NAO

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1 minute ago, JetsPens87 said:

Not sure what is going on with 00z runs. My friend just sent me a tweet that almost made it sound like we weren't going to be getting the new extra dropsonde data into the 00z suite. But I am not sure if we are delayed because we are waiting for that data or delayed for other reasons and not getting that data.

nam out to hr 42

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17 minutes ago, Paragon said:

based on the graphs just posted the nao has been between neutral and +1 the entire time it never went below neutral and it never went higher than +1, that is strange since I strongly recall a few days ago people being extremely excited about the nao going negative, hmmmm

There are different ways of measuring the NAO, and not all high latitude blocks near Greenland register as a -NAO.

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1 minute ago, nzucker said:

There are different ways of measuring the NAO, and not all high latitude blocks near Greenland register as a -NAO.

and just to make things more complicated we have the west based blocks vs the east based blocks, though this was supposed to be west based

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Just now, Paragon said:

and just to make things more complicated we have the west based blocks vs the east based blocks, though this was supposed to be west based

That's why this didn't register as a -NAO: it was too far west. The classic way of measuring the NAO is calculating the difference in pressure between Iceland and the Azores Islands.

High pressure over Hudson Bay/Baffin Island is often too far west to count in the traditional measurement.

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4 minutes ago, nzucker said:

That's why this didn't register as a -NAO: it was too far west. The classic way of measuring the NAO is calculating the difference in pressure between Iceland and the Azores Islands.

High pressure over Hudson Bay/Baffin Island is often too far west to count in the traditional measurement.

So can we develop a way of just measuring west based blocks?  Better yet, can we predict them to any degree? I would guess not since everyone who has tried to find a way to predict the NAO (west or east or both) has failed lol.  Either way I'd like to see graphs that just measured and predicted west based blocks and leave out the east based ones and see if we can tie it into the AO somehow (which I assume is not east or west based.)  That would be FAR more useful since east based NAO are next to useless for us.

This kind of reminds me of the different ways to measure ENSO, Darwin and Tahiti and all that stuff and the arguments I've seen over the SOI lol.

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2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

Nams a beauty... first run with southern stream sampling too

Good. I'm glad this thing isn't going to the right.  It may not have the new data, but it's still a new run with updated surface conditions.

 

edit: it has the new data YAY!

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NWS has NYC under Blizzard Watch so they expect the worst here.     12"-18" and gusts to 50mph, but oddly no mention of drifting.   Other areas are under Winter Storm Watch and to the south they may have  precip. type problems.

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Just now, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

GFS is well east with LP, but as expected with the other models not showing it, the western precip is far more defined and expansive 

Thus far all the comments seem to be focused on the interior, how about the coast ( from the city on east?)

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1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

8-12 inches for NYC on the 12k Nam with more to the north and west

How are the upper levels looking? is it understanding the nature of the beast better with the ingestion of the info? It appears based on the PBP that it is adjusting east which is bringing colder air to bear and I expect further adjustement.

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1 minute ago, nyblizz44 said:

How are the upper levels looking? is it understanding the nature of the beast better with the ingestion of the info? It appears based on the PBP that it is adjusting east which is bringing colder air to bear and I expect further adjustement.

Much better this run

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