EastonSN+ Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Did the 18z GEFS come out yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 24 minutes ago, Snow88 said: People need to relax. This might be a hiccup with the models. They tend to do that close to an event. Lets see what happens with the 0z runs. The precipitation shield seems to be less expansive on the GFS than what typically sees for such storms. I have my doubts about the precipitation shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said: The precipitation shield seems to be less expansive on the GFS than what typically sees for such storms. I have my doubts about the precipitation shield. I commented on this earlier, but precip shields seem to have gotten less expansive in recent years, I wonder why? Maybe with all that warm SST offshore storms tend to wind up more and the heaviest precip gets pulled closer to the center? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 13 minutes ago, WintersGrasp said: How was the 12z UK for NNJ/NYC? I took a quick look and it seemed similar to the Euro track, but tough to tell with the hours during meat of the system not shown Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro It was similar to the Euro track. Tony is on stuck on repeat right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 6 minutes ago, Paragon said: I commented on this earlier, but precip shields seem to have gotten less expansive in recent years, I wonder why? Maybe with all that warm SST offshore storms tend to wind up more and the heaviest precip gets pulled closer to the center? There have been fewer winter storms with Gulf moisture. This one should have a lot of moisture and the dynamics to result in high precipitation amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said: There have been fewer winter storms with Gulf moisture. This one should have a lot of moisture and the dynamics to result in high precipitation amounts. Which leaves me wondering why vast precip shield, yet right gradient for heavier echoes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 correct me if im wrong but havent we seen this before where the precip field modeled is lacking moisture on the western side with a magnitude of this type of storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just now, Snowlover11 said: correct me if im wrong but havent we seen this before where the precip field modeled is lacking moisture on the western side with a magnitude of this type of storm? Juno comes to mind. The EURO and GFS kept chasing the heaviest convection out to the east which caused a much weaker western flank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 GEFS individual members seem more clustered on the western side of the mean rather than the east. Similar to euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, tdp146 said: GEFS individual members seem more clustered on the eastern side of the mean rather than the west. Similar to euro. I think you mean the other way around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, tdp146 said: GEFS individual members seem more clustered on the eastern side of the mean rather than the west. Similar to euro. You mean more clustered on the western side rather than the east side.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, danstorm said: I think you mean the other way around Yea and I think he means similar to the eps lol... Gefs are wayyy way of op.. lots of time for wobble wobble left, that's why nobody should be on the bridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Having the gefs and EPS clustered west of the op runs should be a tell tail sign that future runs should tick tick back West... plenty of time here guys no need to worry! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Yea and I think he means similar to the eps lol... Gefs are wayyy way of op.. lots of time for wobble wobble left, that's why nobody should be on the bridge Exactly. Still plenty of time for models to come back west tonight or tomorrow. I think it comes onshore somewhere between Block Island and Nantucket. I doubt something dynamic like this escapes SE of the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Kind of odd that both GFS and EURO Op members moved east while individual members for both were clustered and more or less remained west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tibet Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 7 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said: Kind of odd that both GFS and EURO Op members moved east while individual members for both were clustered and more or less remained west. Just said the same thing in the Philly sub, is there a particular factor that would cause both ops to be eastern outliers like this well their members stay west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, Tibet said: Just said the same thing in the Philly sub, is there a paticular factor that would cause both ops to be eastern outliers like this well their members sstay west? Yes I was actually going to ask whether it is possible that both op members share some variables that led them to the easterly solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just now, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Yea and I think he means similar to the eps lol... Gefs are wayyy way of op.. lots of time for wobble wobble left, that's why nobody should be on the bridge Overreactions to individual model runs are so endemic to our forum culture that not doing so would seem strange, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Gefs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 JMA looks sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Greetings all It's been awhile since I came out of the woodwork to write thoughts on a storm although I read daily. But I have so many thoughts on this one that I felt the need to jump in and maybe bring some food for thought to the table. I have noticed a few things that I need to point out. First, this is a very potent late season system with a ton of energy and ample cold air supply. However, there are a few major hiccups that in my opinion will hold it back from being the true monster that could have developed (and was being earlier advertised by some models). First, I must strongly urge caution in looking at the surface low and wishing for it to move one way or the other. The true tale of what is going on lies in the middle levels. Let me point out an image that should urge caution. The lack of precip on the NW side on the gfs in my opinion is a result of what is occurring at the mid levels. That second interior mid level low closing off over WPA provides for an area of subsidence in between itself and the developing coastal. All looks well until.... That mid level low over Pitt essentially shuts off the firehose flowing in off the Atlantic. To me this is a direct result of the trend in the models that has been consistent for the past 36 hours in a later sloppier phase and a much quicker moving system. While the surface reflection may be "chasing" convection offshore, I think the more worrisome factor is what I am seeing at the mid levels. Now with that said, I do believe that there will be an area in that precip shield that will be more intense than what models are advertising due to the poor surface reflection being modeled at this point and I believe the ensembles (both the GEFS/EPS) agree on that. I strongly strongly urge against getting hung up in snowfall maps and even QPF outputs a this juncture and focus at this lead time on what is occurring upstairs, "weather" afterall starts in the mid levels and anything else is a byproduct of that function. If we see any slowing down occurring than I think we could be back in the game for a really big storm, but with the consistent trends recently on a sloppier later phase and a faster system, I think the coastal plain is relying on an initial "front end thump" based off dynamics rather than a raging CCB, the same statement does not hold true further north where I do believe the system gets fully cranking and rips a CCB, though that area is yet to be fully nailed down and the HI RES models once into more accurate range can help to begin pinpoint that. If you had to ask me right now I would see the greatest impacts would be NNJ, SENY, and into greater New England, with a very sharp cutoff immediately beyond that due to the mid level presentation right now, I welcome all questions, comments and discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Thanks for sharing and welcome back! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Welcome back Jets! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Awesome post, thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Jets Pens, very nice write-up. I agree that we need the 500mb energy to consolidate more and that the low over PA could reduce the ATL inflow and PWATs. I wonder if that secondary vorticity could provide a period of light snow on Wednesday. But it'd probably be better if the full phase occurred, though if that happens too early it could be dangerous for mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Doesn't look like they map from tt. Wonder why. h4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 9 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said: Greetings all It's been awhile since I came out of the woodwork to write thoughts on a storm although I read daily. But I have so many thoughts on this one that I felt the need to jump in and maybe bring some food for thought to the table. I have noticed a few things that I need to point out. First, this is a very potent late season system with a ton of energy and ample cold air supply. However, there are a few major hiccups that in my opinion will hold it back from being the true monster that could have developed (and was being earlier advertised by some models). First, I must strongly urge caution in looking at the surface low and wishing for it to move one way or the other. The true tale of what is going on lies in the middle levels. Let me point out an image that should urge caution. The lack of precip on the NW side on the gfs in my opinion is a result of what is occurring at the mid levels. That second interior mid level low closing off over WPA provides for an area of subsidence in between itself and the developing coastal. All looks well until.... That mid level low over Pitt essentially shuts off the firehose flowing in off the Atlantic. To me this is a direct result of the trend in the models that has been consistent for the past 36 hours in a later sloppier phase and a much quicker moving system. While the surface reflection may be "chasing" convection offshore, I think the more worrisome factor is what I am seeing at the mid levels. Now with that said, I do believe that there will be an area in that precip shield that will be more intense than what models are advertising due to the poor surface reflection being modeled at this point and I believe the ensembles (both the GEFS/EPS) agree on that. I strongly strongly urge against getting hung up in snowfall maps and even QPF outputs a this juncture and focus at this lead time on what is occurring upstairs, "weather" afterall starts in the mid levels and anything else is a byproduct of that function. If we see any slowing down occurring than I think we could be back in the game for a really big storm, but with the consistent trends recently on a sloppier later phase and a faster system, I think the coastal plain is relying on an initial "front end thump" based off dynamics rather than a raging CCB, the same statement does not hold true further north where I do believe the system gets fully cranking and rips a CCB, though that area is yet to be fully nailed down and the HI RES models once into more accurate range can help to begin pinpoint that. If you had to ask me right now I would see the greatest impacts would be NNJ, SENY, and into greater New England, with a very sharp cutoff immediately beyond that due to the mid level presentation right now, I welcome all questions, comments and discussion. As a former English teacher, let me compliment that excellent discussion. You get an A for your efforts. And I hope you're wrong, but that's just me.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, weatherpruf said: As a former English teacher, let me compliment that excellent discussion. You get an A for your efforts. And I hope you're wrong, but that's just me.... Thank you for the kind words. For the sake of "my backyard" I hope I am wrong as well (it's an odd position to be in haha). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 35 minutes ago, danstorm said: I think you mean the other way around That I do. Fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 13 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said: Greetings all It's been awhile since I came out of the woodwork to write thoughts on a storm although I read daily. But I have so many thoughts on this one that I felt the need to jump in and maybe bring some food for thought to the table. I have noticed a few things that I need to point out. First, this is a very potent late season system with a ton of energy and ample cold air supply. However, there are a few major hiccups that in my opinion will hold it back from being the true monster that could have developed (and was being earlier advertised by some models). First, I must strongly urge caution in looking at the surface low and wishing for it to move one way or the other. The true tale of what is going on lies in the middle levels. Let me point out an image that should urge caution. The lack of precip on the NW side on the gfs in my opinion is a result of what is occurring at the mid levels. That second interior mid level low closing off over WPA provides for an area of subsidence in between itself and the developing coastal. All looks well until.... That mid level low over Pitt essentially shuts off the firehose flowing in off the Atlantic. To me this is a direct result of the trend in the models that has been consistent for the past 36 hours in a later sloppier phase and a much quicker moving system. While the surface reflection may be "chasing" convection offshore, I think the more worrisome factor is what I am seeing at the mid levels. Now with that said, I do believe that there will be an area in that precip shield that will be more intense than what models are advertising due to the poor surface reflection being modeled at this point and I believe the ensembles (both the GEFS/EPS) agree on that. I strongly strongly urge against getting hung up in snowfall maps and even QPF outputs a this juncture and focus at this lead time on what is occurring upstairs, "weather" afterall starts in the mid levels and anything else is a byproduct of that function. If we see any slowing down occurring than I think we could be back in the game for a really big storm, but with the consistent trends recently on a sloppier later phase and a faster system, I think the coastal plain is relying on an initial "front end thump" based off dynamics rather than a raging CCB, the same statement does not hold true further north where I do believe the system gets fully cranking and rips a CCB, though that area is yet to be fully nailed down and the HI RES models once into more accurate range can help to begin pinpoint that. If you had to ask me right now I would see the greatest impacts would be NNJ, SENY, and into greater New England, with a very sharp cutoff immediately beyond that due to the mid level presentation right now, I welcome all questions, comments and discussion. Thanks for coming back, please do so more often!! Like many have said, the final tale for this is still very much in flux. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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