Paragon Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 18 minutes ago, snowman19 said: I don't blame them. We had a shift at 12z with the Euro suite and another shift in that model and/or others may or may not be coming at 0z with all the new data coming in The EPS seems to indicate that Euro was a blip run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 I don't ever recall a blizzard watch. If anyone remembers maybe it could be jan 15? I dont put much stock on the Nam. I think the next model that matters will be 18z then 0z GFS. Any kind of move to the euro op...if the GFS has keying to much on the northern stream and phases, as a result of its bias, then now backs off, the east movement may yet haunt us. The eps didn't really make that go away out of mind. I don't want to do the jinx and bad luck thing but I really think it's a bit quick to pull a blizz watch. Because of the above. Trying to be objective here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 okx did this with march 01 and jan 15. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Watches are fine, accumulations are premature Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 19 minutes ago, nyblizz44 said: Folks remember what a Watch enables UPTON to do: they still have the option to adjust a warning as late as tomorrow night ( which would give public enough time) down to as low as 6-10 inches should the storm brush us or too much mixing occurs. Personally, I like their move to let the public know early on the mamoth potential which is still on the table. The thing is in this day of social media, most people pay more attention to that than anything else. And there's been extreme forecast totals out there on social media anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, forkyfork said: okx did this with march 01 and jan 15. lol Sunny and cold on Tuesday, its over lmao! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 4 minutes ago, forkyfork said: okx did this with march 01 and jan 15. lol The kiss of death or third time's the charm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Pretty uniform Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Mt Holly first look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowBlitzkrieg Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Upton was playing catch-up with the last two storms. They had incredibly low accumulation forecasts for the January 7th storm right up until the morning of, and did the same thing with the February blizzard. I assume that has something to do with such a bullish call so early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, SnowBlitzkrieg said: Upton was playing catch-up with the last two storms. They had incredibly low accumulation forecasts for the January 7th storm right up until the morning of, and did the same thing with the February blizzard. I assume that has something to do with such a bullish call so early. They have two full days to nudge up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, danstorm said: They have two full days to nudge up Mostly population density drive imop. Get the word out early to prevent loss of life etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Sharper trough on 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 GFS looks exactly like the Euro. Great for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 27 minutes ago, Paragon said: The EPS seems to indicate that Euro was a blip run The 12z EPS moved east of the 0z run, just not as far east as the 12z operational did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just now, Snow88 said: GFS looks exactly like the Euro. Great for the coast. East trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, snowman19 said: East trend Oh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 5 hours ago, RU848789 said: Agree, I think watches go up at 4 pm today, with such a high impact storm and with high confidence in at least warning criteria snowfall. Want to get out ahead of this one. I wouldn't think blizzard watches will go up, though, until they have more confidence in dynamics/winds. Half right. Surprised Upton went with the blizzard watches and the 12-18" accumulations this early. 8-12" seemed like a better bet, to me, but they're the experts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 East trend It's West so far through 66Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just now, BxEngine said: Oh? Depends on what maps you are using. Tidbits show it west. SV has it east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 It trended west from 12z but most of the qpf is near the coast. Very weird Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, RU848789 said: Half right. Surprised Upton went with the blizzard watches and the 12-18" accumulations this early. 8-12" seemed like a better bet, to me, but they're the experts... They are in a tough spot RU, public safety is involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, nesussxwx said: Depends on what maps you are using. Tidbits show it west. SV has it east. So what are your views? All this waffling is hard to take. I'm out on sick leave, so it won't matter to me, and the eldest is on spring break, so we'll be ok, but what about people who have to travel or work? I already had two appts canceled for Tues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 4 minutes ago, Snow88 said: It trended west from 12z but most of the qpf is near the coast. Very weird Not wierd... GFS is wayyy SE Of 12z it starts inita slightly west.. but by 18z it's well east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Its less than 100 miles east, 72 hours before the storm. Everyone take a deep breath, and stop overreacting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 This happens all the times at least 48-60 hours out. 0z should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 It looks a little slower and slightly east based on that depiction- not a huge change, but you see how NW areas get fringed and it's less precip for all of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: This happens all the times at least 48-60 hours out. 0z should be interesting. Do you think these sensitive models have difficulty with these unusual storms? or is that an understatement? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 There's still a wide range of solutions on the table, and plenty of time for switches. NAM is 2-4" in the city over to a washout. Tonight and tomorrow should hopefully be when we nail down the answers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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