Rtd208 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Mt.Holly just went with watches as well, cautious with their wording in the watch discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said: Not sure why it posted the old map. Here's the link. http://www.weather.gov/okx/winter yeah I was wondering, because that one was like 2-4 inches and reminded me more of Friday's storm lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Albany really bullish for interior? Lol 18Z NAM supports the snow map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: It was already posted, 72h is the watch window. Oh thanks, is 48hr the window for warnings to be issued? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 4 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said: Not sure why it posted the old map. Here's the link. http://www.weather.gov/okx/winter Newest most likely maps show a general of 15-17 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 6 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said: This is quite bullish this far out especially with the east leaning euro. we shall see thats by morning time on Tuesday when the storm is just getting going Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Watches just issued for Poconos/NWNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 so blizzard watches issued by OKX, Mt Holly and Albany? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 10 minutes ago, danstorm said: I'm not saying they'll be wrong, I've just never seen a forecast of 12-18 when 60-72 hours out... Usually they say "significant", "6+", etc... That's pretty crazy since the op Euro and EPS both just shifted east from their previous runs. There may be further shifting tonight as all the new 0z data comes in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 TWC's maps are nuts. It's almost as if they're using the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just now, Paragon said: so blizzard watches issued by OKX, Mt Holly and Albany? lol Albanys watch for me says greater than 7 inches.. yet most likely says 16 lmao... they're really scared to go all in... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Latest rpm is too pretty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: lol Albanys watch for me says greater than 7 inches.. yet most likely says 16 lmao... they're really scared to go all in... Maybe they are gunshy from the 12z euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Can't believe how bullish Upton is. I still think this is mostly a coastal storm, totals close to 6" in interior, much more towards the Island and the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 I have a feeling that part of the reason why watches have been issued earlier then usual but still within the NWS watch issuance window is the potenial magnitude of the storm and so decisions can be made on issuing a State of Emergency in the areas that will be affected. Anyone else have thoughts on this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: lol Albanys watch for me says greater than 7 inches.. yet most likely says 16 lmao... they're really scared to go all in... I don't blame them. We had a shift at 12z with the Euro suite and another shift in that model and/or others may or may not be coming at 0z with all the new data coming in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 4 minutes ago, Paragon said: so blizzard watches issued by OKX, Mt Holly and Albany? Just a Winter Storm Watch here, looks like the same for NE NJ. I would expect to be upgraded to a Blizzard Watch/Warning tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 4 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: lol Albanys watch for me says greater than 7 inches.. yet most likely says 16 lmao... they're really scared to go all in... Same with Mt.Holly Watch shows a lot of uncertainty. Accumulations... potential for storm total snowfall greater than 6 inches. However, there remains uncertainty in exact totals as a sharp gradient will exist between the heaviest snowfall and locations where very little snow may occur. Changes to the forecast track of the storm can result in substantial changes in the total accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, mimillman said: Can't believe how bullish Upton is. I still think this is mostly a coastal storm, totals close to 6" in interior, much more towards the Island and the coast. They always get burned when they do this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 11 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Albany really bullish for interior? Lol Yeah wow. Right now I think only the NAM supports that. Very surprising imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Folks remember what a Watch enables UPTON to do: they still have the option to adjust a warning as late as tomorrow night ( which would give public enough time) down to as low as 6-10 inches should the storm brush us or too much mixing occurs. Personally, I like their move to let the public know early on the mamoth potential which is still on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 The fact that the EPS is west of the op, and majority of the models are west as well, gives the NWS confidence to put out the watches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just now, nyblizz44 said: Folks remember what a Watch enables UPTON to do: they still have the option to adjust a warning as late as tomorrow night ( which would give public enough time) down to as low as 6-10 inches should the storm brush us or too much mixing occurs. Personally, I like their move to let the public know early on the mamoth potential which is still on the table. Usually at this juncture they would just say 6+ and not get into exact numbers so saying 12-18 in the watch seems premature Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 If youre going to post your thoughts, please back up your thoughts with reasoning. Or try twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just now, Stormlover74 said: Usually at this juncture they would just say 6+ and not get into exact numbers so saying 12-18 in the watch seems premature Respectfully I disagree. There are multiple dependable models and ensembles showing 1-1.50 QPF ( some even more). Ultimately the accumilations can be less or they certainly can be more. From their perspective, this is a middle ground. I would have gone 8-12 inches a starting point but i understand teir posture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 12 minutes ago, nyblizz44 said: thats by morning time on Tuesday when the storm is just getting going Yeah I know. It was supposed to be the updated map but it didn't work when I copied and pasted it. I posted the link for the updated version. Still shockingly bullish but not as shocking as ALB map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 LGA PLUME has 1.6" liquid, but only 11" of snow. It does not show 2M temp. going over 32. Despite this it is just a 7:1 ratio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 8 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said: Yeah wow. Right now I think only the NAM supports that. Very surprising imo For the northern portion yea.. southern portion all but euro has about 12-18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 to all those who doubted me.. Blizzard watches and wsw are up! Thank you very much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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