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March 13 - 15 Major Winter Storm Potential


NEG NAO

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10 minutes ago, danstorm said:

I'm not saying they'll be wrong, I've just never seen a forecast of 12-18 when 60-72 hours out... Usually they say "significant", "6+", etc... 

That's pretty crazy since the op Euro and EPS  both just shifted east from their previous runs. There may be further shifting tonight as all the new 0z data comes in

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I have a feeling that part of the reason why watches have been issued earlier then usual but still within the NWS watch issuance window is the potenial magnitude of the storm and so decisions can be made on issuing a State of Emergency in the areas that will be affected. Anyone else have thoughts on this?

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1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

 lol Albanys watch for me says greater than 7 inches.. yet most likely says 16 lmao... they're really scared to go all in...

I don't blame them. We had a shift at 12z with the Euro suite and another shift in that model and/or others may or may not be coming at 0z with all the new data coming in

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4 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

 lol Albanys watch for me says greater than 7 inches.. yet most likely says 16 lmao... they're really scared to go all in...

Same with Mt.Holly

Watch shows a lot of uncertainty.

Accumulations... potential for storm total snowfall greater than
  6 inches. However, there remains uncertainty in exact totals as
  a sharp gradient will exist between the heaviest snowfall and
  locations where very little snow may occur. Changes to the
  forecast track of the storm can result in substantial changes in
  the total accumulations.
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Folks remember what a Watch enables UPTON to do: they still have the option to adjust a warning as late as tomorrow night ( which would give public enough time) down to as low as 6-10 inches should the storm brush us or too much mixing occurs. Personally, I like their move to let the public know early on the mamoth potential which is still on the table.

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Just now, nyblizz44 said:

Folks remember what a Watch enables UPTON to do: they still have the option to adjust a warning as late as tomorrow night ( which would give public enough time) down to as low as 6-10 inches should the storm brush us or too much mixing occurs. Personally, I like their move to let the public know early on the mamoth potential which is still on the table.

Usually at this juncture they would just say 6+ and not get into exact numbers so saying 12-18 in the watch seems premature

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Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Usually at this juncture they would just say 6+ and not get into exact numbers so saying 12-18 in the watch seems premature

Respectfully I disagree. There are multiple dependable models and ensembles showing 1-1.50 QPF ( some even more). Ultimately the accumilations can be less or they certainly can be more. From their perspective, this is a middle ground. I would have gone 8-12 inches a starting point but i understand teir posture.

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12 minutes ago, nyblizz44 said:

thats by morning time on Tuesday when the storm is just getting going

Yeah I know. It was supposed to be the updated map but it didn't work when I copied and pasted it. I posted the link for the updated version. Still shockingly bullish but not as shocking as ALB map.

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