weatherpruf Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 9 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Even this far east Euro run was still a very nice event from the city and especially east (8-12" and up to 18" down the NJ shore), so it goes to show that I-95 has a good amount of wiggle room to salvage a nice event. The far NW burbs though would get shafted for sure if that Euro was right. That would still be historic for March, and a real surprise given this abnormally warm winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 22 minutes ago, jm1220 said: I still would favor a more tucked in track vs. well offshore-there's a ton of energy rotating in, and the baroclinic zone should be near land with the cold ground/warm ocean. Coastal storms this year have also made late trends north/west. But there are still many solutions possible, and it goes to show that it's still premature to put out forecast amounts and throw around "historic", "blizzard", etc. If things come together right like the Euro did last night, we would have widespread 12-18"+, but I'd say we're 24 hrs away from nailing that down. So we basically have 12z GFS/ 12z GEFS/ 12z GGEM/ 12z UK/ 12z EPS vs 12z Euro Not to mention previous runs of the Euro and EPS argue against it too. The problem with calling for a historic storm is that the pattern is progressive and this doesn't seem like a 24+ hr storm anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just now, Stormlover74 said: uh no any model with such wild swings under 50 hours...has a problem. I went from 26-30 inches to 4 or 5 inches.....That is like losing your lunch on the school bus ride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just now, Animal said: any model with such wild swings under 50 hours...has a problem. I went from 26-30 inches to 4 or 5 inches.....That is like losing your lunch on the school bus ride. It happens to every model at some point. We can't just ignore them all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 12z roundup 3/11 12z SREF: NAM: mix to rain - snow : (western most model) / QPF: PNAM: mix to hvy snow / QPF: 1.25 - 1.50 GFS: Mostly snow / QPF: 1.00 - 1.10 (Snow 6 - 12") GEFS: mosly snow / QPF: 1.00 - 1.15 GGEM: hvy snow / QPF: 1.10 1.25 (Snow 10" - 18") UKMET: hvy snow / QPF: N/A) ECM: snow / QPF: 0.75 - 1.05 (6 - 12") EPS: hvy snow : QPF: 1.05 - 1.25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Eps mean did hurt totals for interior with that slight shift east, I'm looking now coasts fine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, Rjay said: The W lean is comforting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 There's a decent amount of Jan 15 esq members lol... I know the forbidden storm for many Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Although the mean is slightly east of 00z, there is a large lean to the west. The cluster of LPs is also tighter than 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowBlitzkrieg Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: There's a decent amount of Jan 15 esq members lol... I know the forbidden storm for many the actual Jan '15 storm or the one that was modeled? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 12z today 00z last night im ok with either.. just NOT the euro op lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: Although the mean is slightly east of 00z, there is a large lean to the west. The cluster of LPs is also tighter than 00z. yea..looks that way. Really comes down to where you are located in the metro area for most storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 There's quite a few gorgeous solutions on the individual members but I would give up my first born for Member 47 @ Hour 78. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 From Will in NE forum 11 minutes ago, Paragon said: Looks like the ensembles prob have like 2/3rds to 3/4ths of the members west of the OP run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 10 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: 12z today 00z last night im ok with either.. just NOT the euro op lol Weird the one last night had slightly less for me, but there was no changeover or mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, Paragon said: Weird the one last night had slightly less for me, but there was no changeover or mix. It has to do with where the QPF maxes are, which shift around each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 8 minutes ago, jm1220 said: It has to do with where the QPF maxes are, which shift around each run. Yeah it looks like model noise lol 1" or 0.1 LE difference. The newer EPS mean had the qpf max in monmouth county, vs NE NJ in the older run. I wish those colors were more distinct, but it looks like 12" on the mean vs 11" on the mean for us in the old run. That's a lot considering the smoothed nature of the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Out of range but srefs are well west of euro, and slight west of 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Out of range but srefs are well west of euro, and slight west of 12z GFS Billy, do you have the map of the cluster of the individual ensembles members of the 12z GEFS? I just looked through my downloads and the most recent one I have is from the 0z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 A better look at eps spread is well west of OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just now, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Out of range but srefs are well west of euro, and slight west of 12z GFS West, east I give up. When should we see some consensus, not til Monday right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Nam looks like GFS through 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just now, weatherpruf said: West, east I give up. When should we see some consensus, not til Monday right? Welcome to weather lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Good now maybe we can compare it to the individual ensemble members from the 12z GEFS like we did last night with the 0z runs. I can't find the map of the 12z GEFS members though, looks like no one posted it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, Paragon said: Good now maybe we can compare it to the individual ensemble members from the 12z GEFS like we did last night with the 0z runs. I can't find the map of the 12z GEFS members though, looks like no one posted it. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens®ion=us&pkg=lowlocs&runtime=2017031112&fh=90&xpos=0&ypos=49 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Nam looks like it will be our strongest outlier (no surprises there) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Nam looks like it will be our strongest outlier (no surprises there) You mean strongest ( as in furthest west) or as in storm strength? Or as in QPF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens®ion=us&pkg=lowlocs&runtime=2017031112&fh=90&xpos=0&ypos=49 Thanks Billy, I loaded the four frames from hr 72 to hr 90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 based on heights, the NAM should come east..which is good.. but then again surface reflection doesn't look east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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