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March 13 - 15 Major Winter Storm Potential


NEG NAO

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7 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

3/4/2001 is the #7 analog. Honestly, the setup at H5 isn't far off.

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gfs_z500_vort_us_16.png
 

And there it is. The requisite reminder of how NYC was promised more snow than it's ever received in a March snowstorm during a time where we have computer models discussing more snow than NYC has ever seen from one snowstorm and oh, yes, it's March. Didn't we just do this a few years ago and we barely got a few inches?

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1 minute ago, Eduardo said:

::Closes eyes and covers ears:: :weep:

In all seriousness, there are some similarities there.  I'm cautiously optimistic about this one, but I stress "cautiously."  Model trends are in our favor, but they've fooled us before and, given this happy medium we must reach between a miss and a full phase, I think the chances for disappointment are higher than the excitement in here lets on.

All in all, we should be thrilled that we have such a beastly threat to track this late into the season, but we should keep our expectations tempered appropriately.

 

Yes, given the rarity of late season blockbusters in these parts, that is sound thinking. I am excited to read all this but at this juncture will not be the least bit surprised to see this hit interior or SNE and even miss us entirely in most of NJ. I would also not be surprised by the opposite ( but would not bet on it, in all seriousness ) and thanks to all for your informative posts.

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2 minutes ago, TriPol said:

And there it is. The requisite reminder of how NYC was promised more snow than it's ever received in a March snowstorm during a time where we have computer models discussing more snow than NYC has ever seen from one snowstorm and oh, yes, it's March. Didn't we just do this a few years ago and we barely got a few inches?

March 21, 2015 comes to mind.

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Please try to keep the banter to a minimum in here.

Debate is encouraged but there is a no bickering rule in effect in this thread.  There is an obvious difference between the two.  If you bicker you will be suspended.

Questions are more than welcome but try to keep imby questions to a minimum.

Let's have some good discussion and good vibes in this thread.   Treat each other with respect and have fun tracking. 

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1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

GFS just seems so sloppy with the low presentation. I doubt it ends up like the way it shows. It might be close to the coast, but I doubt there are these lows right next to each other that can't congeal. 

A cleaner phase will lead to a more consolidated system and once the SLP matures it won't matter for most how close it tracks given those dynamics and the blocking. You just can't be to the East of the center when it passes.

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5 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Still very close but a good hit

I want to see it further east

Tonight should be interesting

GEFS being west of 12z would be rain for us coasties no? Still a lot of time to go so not worries yet. Question, did the western side of the ensembles tighten up (meaning less inland runners)? The fact that Forky believes that the GFS is off makes me feel a bit better 

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2 minutes ago, Rjay said:

It still has many inland runners though which is at odds with the EPS.

 

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_eus_17.png

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_eus_18 (1).png

2 camps

0z will be telling

Earthlight

"In situations like this you have to consider forecast models components. The GFS i initialization scheme and rolling model code is the same as the GEFS on a downscaled resolution. So particularly in events like this one with phasing and intricate details that require certain sampling, you are going to see model suites handle things a certain way and latch on to their own ideas.

 

Tl;dr -- I wouldn't put too much stock into the GEFS."

 

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2 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

2 camps

0z will be telling

Earthlight

"In situations like this you have to consider forecast models components. The GFS i initialization scheme and rolling model code is the same as the GEFS on a downscaled resolution. So particularly in events like this one with phasing and intricate details that require certain sampling, you are going to see model suites handle things a certain way and latch on to their own ideas.

 

Tl;dr -- I wouldn't put too much stock into the GEFS."

 

It's still all opinion at his point... Bernie rayno thinks the euro is out to lunch, with the 2 ULL look at 500

 

not saying he's right just pointing out the difference in opinion between "professionals" even

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It's still all opinion at his point... Bernie rayno thinks the euro is out to lunch, with the 2 ULL look at 500

 

 

 

not saying he's right just pointing out the difference in opinion between "professionals" even

 

Rayno never the Euro was out to lunch. Just the opposite. His bullseye is NYC and SNE. He definitely is riding the Euro. He didn't even talk about mixing being an issue. His concern was that the 500mb on the Euro suggested a flatter track.

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24 minutes ago, TriPol said:

Where can I get a look at the EURO ensembles? Is every piece of energy involved with Tuesday's storm here in the lower 48 yet?

 

The EPS ensembles are perfect and its individuals were east of its 0z run.

The GFS continues to chase convection but its doing it on its westward flank and jumps the center N once out of NC.

The track I like is Inside Hatteras but S and just E of AC then towards the BM

There could be between 2 and 3 inches of liquid with this and at 10 to 1 where its all snow , the math is easy.

Winds  along the NJ coast could be close to 50 mph with poss gusts out near Montauk to close to Hurricane force.

For this I expect Blizzard warnings to go up Monday from coastal NJ to NYC east accross LI.

I still like 15 plus for NYC even if that R/S line gets to the Driscoll and nudges N for some time  like the GFS thinks.

The Euro collapses the 0 line towards its center as it is faded east and is just game on.

I think amounts from NW NJ into NE approach 2 feet as a great storm is on the way 

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2 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

 

The EPS ensembles are perfect and its individuals were east of its 0z run.

The GFS continues to chase convection but its doing it on its westward flank and jumps the center N once out of NC.

The track I like is Inside Hatteras but S and just E of AC then towards the BM

There could be between 2 and 3 inches of liquid with this and at 10 to 1 where its all snow , the math is easy.

Winds  along the NJ coast could be close to 50 mph with poss gusts out near Montauk to close to Hurricane force.

For this I expect Blizzard warnings to go up Monday from coastal NJ to NYC east accross LI.

I still like 15 plus for NYC even if that R/S line gets to the Driscoll and nudges N for some time  like the GFS thinks.

The Euro collapses the 0 line towards its center as it is faded east and is just game on.

I think amounts from NW NJ into NE approach 2 feet as a great storm is on the way 

 

Remember the January snowstorm we had, everyone kept saying 15:1 ratios and because of the temperatures, we only had 7:1. 2 inches of liquid could equal 14 inches of heavy, wet snow.

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21 minutes ago, Rittenhouse said:

Rayno never the Euro was out to lunch. Just the opposite. His bullseye is NYC and SNE. He definitely is riding the Euro. He didn't even talk about mixing being an issue. His concern was that the 500mb on the Euro suggested a flatter track.

That's what I said... I never said he thought the entire run was a toss.. I said he thinks the 2 ULL look at 500 is out to lunch

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44 minutes ago, TriPol said:

Remember the January snowstorm we had, everyone kept saying 15:1 ratios and because of the temperatures, we only had 7:1. 2 inches of liquid could equal 14 inches of heavy, wet snow.

With a euro type solution your Looking at 10-1. It would be even higher based on temps being in the mid 20s but strong winds have to factored in. This is not your typical late season storm in that regard 

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49 minutes ago, Jersey Andrew said:

Does anyone have a list of analogs for this storm? Am thinking March 1958 is in the mix.

March 2001 honestly may one of the closest as already posted.  On the 84 hour CIPS list in the NE US sector there are a few notable dates show, but given these are just sectors it does not usually grasp the entire pattern associated with the storm.  The notable dates at 84 hours are 02/14/07 02/05/95 and 03/13/1993

 

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5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

March 2001 honestly may one of the closest as already posted.  On the 84 hour CIPS list in the NE US sector there are a few notable dates show, but given these are just sectors it does not usually grasp the entire pattern associated with the storm.  The notable dates at 84 hours are 02/14/07 02/05/95 and 03/13/1993

 

I can see 95 wrt the track only.

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47 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

March 2001 honestly may one of the closest as already posted.  On the 84 hour CIPS list in the NE US sector there are a few notable dates show, but given these are just sectors it does not usually grasp the entire pattern associated with the storm.  The notable dates at 84 hours are 02/14/07 02/05/95 and 03/13/1993

 

All of these were mostly or partly non-snow in NYC. Maybe not the case this time but something to think about. 

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