TriPol Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 7 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: 3/4/2001 is the #7 analog. Honestly, the setup at H5 isn't far off. And there it is. The requisite reminder of how NYC was promised more snow than it's ever received in a March snowstorm during a time where we have computer models discussing more snow than NYC has ever seen from one snowstorm and oh, yes, it's March. Didn't we just do this a few years ago and we barely got a few inches? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 1 minute ago, Eduardo said: ::Closes eyes and covers ears:: In all seriousness, there are some similarities there. I'm cautiously optimistic about this one, but I stress "cautiously." Model trends are in our favor, but they've fooled us before and, given this happy medium we must reach between a miss and a full phase, I think the chances for disappointment are higher than the excitement in here lets on. All in all, we should be thrilled that we have such a beastly threat to track this late into the season, but we should keep our expectations tempered appropriately. Yes, given the rarity of late season blockbusters in these parts, that is sound thinking. I am excited to read all this but at this juncture will not be the least bit surprised to see this hit interior or SNE and even miss us entirely in most of NJ. I would also not be surprised by the opposite ( but would not bet on it, in all seriousness ) and thanks to all for your informative posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 10 minutes ago, nyblizz44 said: That just gave me chills but I am not seeing the sling shot effect of the Miller B at play, which is what destroyed what was supposed to be an HECS for NY back then This is more of a Miller A/B hybrid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, TriPol said: And there it is. The requisite reminder of how NYC was promised more snow than it's ever received in a March snowstorm during a time where we have computer models discussing more snow than NYC has ever seen from one snowstorm and oh, yes, it's March. Didn't we just do this a few years ago and we barely got a few inches? March 21, 2015 comes to mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Please try to keep the banter to a minimum in here. Debate is encouraged but there is a no bickering rule in effect in this thread. There is an obvious difference between the two. If you bicker you will be suspended. Questions are more than welcome but try to keep imby questions to a minimum. Let's have some good discussion and good vibes in this thread. Treat each other with respect and have fun tracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 GFS just seems so sloppy with the low presentation. I doubt it ends up like the way it shows. It might be close to the coast, but I doubt there are these lows right next to each other that can't congeal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: GFS just seems so sloppy with the low presentation. I doubt it ends up like the way it shows. It might be close to the coast, but I doubt there are these lows right next to each other that can't congeal. A cleaner phase will lead to a more consolidated system and once the SLP matures it won't matter for most how close it tracks given those dynamics and the blocking. You just can't be to the East of the center when it passes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Gefs look a tad west at first glance to me gefs mean keeps heaviest snowfall in NNJ/NEPA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Gefs look west at first glance to me New GFS ensembles further west... near ACY at H96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 1 minute ago, Neblizzard said: New GFS ensembles further west... near ACY at H96. Still very close but a good hit I want to see it further east Tonight should be interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 5 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Still very close but a good hit I want to see it further east Tonight should be interesting GEFS being west of 12z would be rain for us coasties no? Still a lot of time to go so not worries yet. Question, did the western side of the ensembles tighten up (meaning less inland runners)? The fact that Forky believes that the GFS is off makes me feel a bit better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 18z GEFS has less inland runners, much more consolidated mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 If tonight's Euro comes west then the GFS MAY be onto something with it being closer to the coast. But it's still early and there are alot of moving parts to make this storm happen so caution is warranted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 3 minutes ago, AnthonyDabbundo said: 18z GEFS has less inland runners, much more consolidated mean. It still has many inland runners though which is at odds with the EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, Rjay said: It still has many inland runners though which is at odds with the EPS. 2 camps 0z will be telling Earthlight "In situations like this you have to consider forecast models components. The GFS i initialization scheme and rolling model code is the same as the GEFS on a downscaled resolution. So particularly in events like this one with phasing and intricate details that require certain sampling, you are going to see model suites handle things a certain way and latch on to their own ideas. Tl;dr -- I wouldn't put too much stock into the GEFS." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: 2 camps 0z will be telling Earthlight "In situations like this you have to consider forecast models components. The GFS i initialization scheme and rolling model code is the same as the GEFS on a downscaled resolution. So particularly in events like this one with phasing and intricate details that require certain sampling, you are going to see model suites handle things a certain way and latch on to their own ideas. Tl;dr -- I wouldn't put too much stock into the GEFS." It's still all opinion at his point... Bernie rayno thinks the euro is out to lunch, with the 2 ULL look at 500 not saying he's right just pointing out the difference in opinion between "professionals" even Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 5 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: People will bash me but I'm more interested in what the nam shows tonight Than any other "op" run... Nam and ensembles for me NAM has been great IMO. I concur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Where can I get a look at the EURO ensembles? Is every piece of energy involved with Tuesday's storm here in the lower 48 yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 It's still all opinion at his point... Bernie rayno thinks the euro is out to lunch, with the 2 ULL look at 500 not saying he's right just pointing out the difference in opinion between "professionals" even Rayno never the Euro was out to lunch. Just the opposite. His bullseye is NYC and SNE. He definitely is riding the Euro. He didn't even talk about mixing being an issue. His concern was that the 500mb on the Euro suggested a flatter track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 24 minutes ago, TriPol said: Where can I get a look at the EURO ensembles? Is every piece of energy involved with Tuesday's storm here in the lower 48 yet? The EPS ensembles are perfect and its individuals were east of its 0z run. The GFS continues to chase convection but its doing it on its westward flank and jumps the center N once out of NC. The track I like is Inside Hatteras but S and just E of AC then towards the BM There could be between 2 and 3 inches of liquid with this and at 10 to 1 where its all snow , the math is easy. Winds along the NJ coast could be close to 50 mph with poss gusts out near Montauk to close to Hurricane force. For this I expect Blizzard warnings to go up Monday from coastal NJ to NYC east accross LI. I still like 15 plus for NYC even if that R/S line gets to the Driscoll and nudges N for some time like the GFS thinks. The Euro collapses the 0 line towards its center as it is faded east and is just game on. I think amounts from NW NJ into NE approach 2 feet as a great storm is on the way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, PB GFI said: The EPS ensembles are perfect and its individuals were east of its 0z run. The GFS continues to chase convection but its doing it on its westward flank and jumps the center N once out of NC. The track I like is Inside Hatteras but S and just E of AC then towards the BM There could be between 2 and 3 inches of liquid with this and at 10 to 1 where its all snow , the math is easy. Winds along the NJ coast could be close to 50 mph with poss gusts out near Montauk to close to Hurricane force. For this I expect Blizzard warnings to go up Monday from coastal NJ to NYC east accross LI. I still like 15 plus for NYC even if that R/S line gets to the Driscoll and nudges N for some time like the GFS thinks. The Euro collapses the 0 line towards its center as it is faded east and is just game on. I think amounts from NW NJ into NE approach 2 feet as a great storm is on the way Remember the January snowstorm we had, everyone kept saying 15:1 ratios and because of the temperatures, we only had 7:1. 2 inches of liquid could equal 14 inches of heavy, wet snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 21 minutes ago, Rittenhouse said: Rayno never the Euro was out to lunch. Just the opposite. His bullseye is NYC and SNE. He definitely is riding the Euro. He didn't even talk about mixing being an issue. His concern was that the 500mb on the Euro suggested a flatter track. That's what I said... I never said he thought the entire run was a toss.. I said he thinks the 2 ULL look at 500 is out to lunch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Andrew Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Does anyone have a list of analogs for this storm? Am thinking March 1958 is in the mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 feel free to move if this doesnt belong but when can we start looking at the Sefs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 11 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said: feel free to move if this doesnt belong but when can we start looking at the Sefs? Sunday morning. Same with the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 44 minutes ago, TriPol said: Remember the January snowstorm we had, everyone kept saying 15:1 ratios and because of the temperatures, we only had 7:1. 2 inches of liquid could equal 14 inches of heavy, wet snow. With a euro type solution your Looking at 10-1. It would be even higher based on temps being in the mid 20s but strong winds have to factored in. This is not your typical late season storm in that regard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 49 minutes ago, Jersey Andrew said: Does anyone have a list of analogs for this storm? Am thinking March 1958 is in the mix. March 2001 honestly may one of the closest as already posted. On the 84 hour CIPS list in the NE US sector there are a few notable dates show, but given these are just sectors it does not usually grasp the entire pattern associated with the storm. The notable dates at 84 hours are 02/14/07 02/05/95 and 03/13/1993 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: March 2001 honestly may one of the closest as already posted. On the 84 hour CIPS list in the NE US sector there are a few notable dates show, but given these are just sectors it does not usually grasp the entire pattern associated with the storm. The notable dates at 84 hours are 02/14/07 02/05/95 and 03/13/1993 I can see 95 wrt the track only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 March 28-29th, 1984 could be an analog with slightly colder temperatures... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 47 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: March 2001 honestly may one of the closest as already posted. On the 84 hour CIPS list in the NE US sector there are a few notable dates show, but given these are just sectors it does not usually grasp the entire pattern associated with the storm. The notable dates at 84 hours are 02/14/07 02/05/95 and 03/13/1993 All of these were mostly or partly non-snow in NYC. Maybe not the case this time but something to think about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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