allgame830 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: There were issues down south too. It was way drier over the Carolinas and MA. That may have been a result of everything else but it was just overall less juiced in that area So are you just trying to say it looks overall weird to you and JM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 DT (WxRisk) just did a write up on FB, he is discounting the 12z Euro Op until he sees it have ensemble support. https://www.facebook.com/WxRisk/posts/1291689947544927?notif_t=notify_me_page¬if_id=1489221137321695 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 I still would favor a more tucked in track vs. well offshore-there's a ton of energy rotating in, and the baroclinic zone should be near land with the cold ground/warm ocean. Coastal storms this year have also made late trends north/west. But there are still many solutions possible, and it goes to show that it's still premature to put out forecast amounts and throw around "historic", "blizzard", etc. If things come together right like the Euro did last night, we would have widespread 12-18"+, but I'd say we're 24 hrs away from nailing that down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 28 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The problem on this run more looked like something in the south not so much an issue with anything in the northern branch It's the timing. That southern vort can't get too far out ahead of the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 4 minutes ago, WarrenCtyWx said: Can anyone recall a specific instance in which the Euro had a hiccup run like this that depicted a vastly different outcome than the actual storm? Boxing Day. Gfs sniffed out the comeback Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 EPS will be interesting in a bit-let's hope they are west of the OP! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 weird eh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just now, Brian5671 said: EPS will be interesting in a bit-let's hope they are west of the OP! I'll be waiting for that too, if they're west of the OP, then high likelihood it was a hiccup run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 It's the timing. That southern vort can't get too far out ahead of the trough.Yes. N/s held back. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Wow SREF is massive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 9 minutes ago, cleetussnow said: Boxing Day. Gfs sniffed out the comeback NAM sniffed it out first, followed by GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Even this far east Euro run was still a very nice event from the city and especially east (8-12" and up to 18" down the NJ shore), so it goes to show that I-95 has a good amount of wiggle room to salvage a nice event. The far NW burbs though would get shafted for sure if that Euro was right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Wow SREF is massive Aren't they are out of their best range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Eps is coming it now, out to 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, David-LI said: Aren't they are out of their best range? By a mile, you look at those in 48 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 NE forum is saying the EPS is west of the OP run, but went east from 0z. Fine by me. That's a red flag to me that the op run went east too far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 What is the EPS model, related to any of the others or its own thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Early WPC Snow Probability call (only snowfall up to 8PM Tues, so a little more might fall, that is not included here.) 2" 90% 8" 50% 12" 30% 18" 10% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Eps is coming it now, out to 36 Looks a bit west of the OP at 72 and 78. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: NE forum is saying the EPS is west of the OP run, but went east from 0z. Fine by me. That's a red flag to me that the op run went east too far. They're exactly right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 5 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Wow SREF is massive Really juiced up for being so far away! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, Rjay said: Looks a bit west of the OP at 72 and 78. Eps looks like it's gonna just about hold serve to me from last night slight tick E Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 13 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: DT (WxRisk) just did a write up on FB, he is discounting the 12z Euro Op until he sees it have ensemble support. https://www.facebook.com/WxRisk/posts/1291689947544927?notif_t=notify_me_page¬if_id=1489221137321695 Steve D tweeted this about the Euro. Said if you look at upper levels between 250 mb and 925 mb you can see the errors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Eps is 1.25-1.5 with close to 15:1 ratios for most... 1.0"-1.25" north and west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Eps looks like it's gonna just about hold serve to me from last night slight tick E And in a perfect world we blend the GEFS and EPS forcast 12-20 area wide with 25-30 lolis on points North and east and be done! but reality if far tougher than that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just now, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Eps is 1.25-1.5 with close to 15:1 ratios for most... 1.0"-1.25" north and west Ill take a comfortable 12-18 and you wont hear a peeep from me about this warm winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 23 minutes ago, WarrenCtyWx said: Can anyone recall a specific instance in which the Euro had a hiccup run like this that depicted a vastly different outcome than the actual storm? EPS is a tad east of previous EPS and nothing like the OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, nyblizz44 said: And in a perfect world we blend the GEFS and EPS forcast 12-20 area wide with 25-30 lolis on points North and east and be done! but reality if far tougher than that! Exactly correct, Before we all panic you need to consider we're still in ENS range, ops are on wobble effect till tomorrow night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 EPS look great , 1.5 on the mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just now, Neblizzard said: EPS look great , 1.5 on the mean What was the mean at 0z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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