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March 13 - 15 Major Winter Storm Potential


NEG NAO

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I still would favor a more tucked in track vs. well offshore-there's a ton of energy rotating in, and the baroclinic zone should be near land with the cold ground/warm ocean. Coastal storms this year have also made late trends north/west. But there are still many solutions possible, and it goes to show that it's still premature to put out forecast amounts and throw around "historic", "blizzard", etc. If things come together right like the Euro did last night, we would have widespread 12-18"+, but I'd say we're 24 hrs away from nailing that down. 

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Even this far east Euro run was still a very nice event from the city and especially east (8-12" and up to 18" down the NJ shore), so it goes to show that I-95 has a good amount of wiggle room to salvage a nice event. The far NW burbs though would get shafted for sure if that Euro was right. 

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13 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

DT (WxRisk) just did a write up on FB, he is discounting the 12z Euro Op until he sees it have ensemble support.

https://www.facebook.com/WxRisk/posts/1291689947544927?notif_t=notify_me_page&notif_id=1489221137321695

Steve D tweeted this about the Euro. Said if you look at upper levels between 250 mb and 925 mb you can see the errors.

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2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

Eps looks like it's gonna just about hold serve to me from last night slight tick E

And in a perfect world we blend the GEFS and EPS forcast 12-20 area wide with 25-30 lolis on points North and east and be done! but reality if far tougher than that!

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23 minutes ago, WarrenCtyWx said:

Can anyone recall a specific instance in which the Euro had a hiccup run like this that depicted a vastly different outcome than the actual storm?

EPS is a tad east of previous EPS and nothing like the OP

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2 minutes ago, nyblizz44 said:

And in a perfect world we blend the GEFS and EPS forcast 12-20 area wide with 25-30 lolis on points North and east and be done! but reality if far tougher than that!

Exactly correct, Before we all panic you need to consider we're still in ENS range, ops are on wobble effect till tomorrow night 

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