NortheastPAWx Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just now, Paragon said: What did the UK do? I haven't seen it. UK basically would have been a HECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, Paragon said: What did the UK do? I haven't seen it. It's posted in this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 The ECMWF seems so different from its earlier runs and the EPS, it's difficult to have much confidence in this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 I do remember one ECM run last year before the HECS, I think around this time, where it crapped out big time and showed like 1-2" for NYC. So, hopefully, that's the case here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Let's see the EPS mean and ensembles, and see if this supported. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just now, bluewave said: The UKIE also has that little jog east on the detailed track. Not like the euro! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deathstar9 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 10 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Can't remember last time euro had this much of shift inside 3 days... have to see how eps handles... as of now euro is the eastern,weakest outlier... GFS/eps/Gefs/ggem/Nam... all strong and west of euro.. see how 18z unfolds Jan 2015 comes to mind. That one shifted even closer to the storm. About 36 hrs out or something like that. Area I lived in went from like 2.5-3" qpf to about 0.5" on the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, WEATHERBUFF said: Not like the euro! Looks like the Euro track to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 8 minutes ago, Rjay said: It's posted in this thread. Thanks I just saw the maps you posted! It belongs in the camp with the GFS and GGEM, was wondering why Billy didn't include it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, deathstar9 said: Jan 2015 comes to mind. That one shifted even closer to the storm. About 36 hrs out or something like that. Area I lived in went from like 2.5-3" qpf to about 0.5" on the euro. No that was pure bust... euro never shifted... the snow just never came lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, Manny said: Let's see the EPS mean and ensembles, and see if this supported. Good call. as of now the this one run does only one thing, increase my confidence that the coast is in for a big hit. Last night there was worry about an inland runner and the coast having major rain issues. We often see blips like this form run to run and this generally is the time Frame they tend to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 The UKIE also has that little jog east on the detailed track. So maybe it's just a late phase? Yes. It's a late phase. Like I said, the flow is screaming and the NAO is heading to significant positive territory. Everything comes down to a phase. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 10 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: So it went from a coastal hugger worry to an OTS worry. I'd give it another run before panicking but we are getting better sampling of data today. Ask yourself, what usually happens to potential March storms in this area? I was just telling a friend this morning, I would still bet against this storm severely impacting much of NJ based on history alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 This is why I've been saying for two days you need phasing. If the trough is too far West it will kick it East instead of up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 13 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: The ECMWF seems so different from its earlier runs and the EPS, it's difficult to have much confidence in this run. It seems to me and correct me if I am wrong but the Euro always seems to do something weird like this around this time frame for our biggest storms after being so consistent. Is it possible that any new data that may have been ingested into it could have caused some kind of convective feedback this run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: This is why I've been saying for two days you need phasing. If the trough is too far West it will kick it East instead of up. The problem on this run more looked like something in the south not so much an issue with anything in the northern branch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Still a nice run for NYC and NJ 8-10 here with more in LI and SnJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Both the euro and gfs shifted east from their 0z runs. Red flag right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 10 minutes ago, Rjay said: Looks like the Euro track to me Just saying the euro is furthest east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 4 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: It seems to me and correct me if I am wrong but the Euro always seems to do something weird like this around this time frame for our biggest storms after being so consistent. Is it possible that any new data that may have been ingested into it could have caused some kind of convective feedback this run? I've seen such temporary shifts with a number of storms. The details are complex, so an occasional outlier isn't that surprising. The EPS and 18z GFS will provide insight. Continuity would be reassuring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 At 0 Z the NAM and the RGEM will come into play. NAM was highly west of the envelope if it follows with a strong shift east and then 90 minutes later GFS goes east then Ill worry, till then will conisder this Euro run a hiccup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 21 minutes ago, psv88 said: It's not unheard of. Sometimes that's what happens. If I recall with Jan 2015, the other models were doing that but the euro was so consistent that people threw out those further east solutions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 People, try to focus on the spread of the major global models, not just the Euro or GFS etc. We do this sh*t every time. Every time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 13 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: I've seen such temporary shifts with a number of storms. The details are complex, so an occasional outlier isn't that surprising. The EPS and 18z GFS will provide insight. Continuity would be reassuring. Yeah I remember this a number of times as well, I am certainly not going to get nervous by this run alone. Now if the other models and the next Euro run including the ensembles start/continue showing what the Euro is now showing then it may be time to get nervous and start backing away from the MECS/HECS idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 People, try to focus on the spread of the major global models, not just the Euro or GFS etc. We do this sh*t every time. Every time.To me, it's not focusing on one run. It's showing, imo, how delicate this set up is. A late phase or screw up on one of the branches and we could lose this solution. The PNA is helping us, but the NAO and rather shallow blocking is not helping. This cold means business and the high pressure is very strong. Without a nearly perfect phase, we lose this storm. The euro shows that IMHO. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 7 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: If I recall with Jan 2015, the other models were doing that but the euro was so consistent that people threw out those further east solutions Yup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 To me the Euro may have focused too much on a piece of convection well offshore and leaped the low east as a result. The phase also looked late/sloppy, so that may have been the reason. Anyway, it's reason to watch and see the 0z runs tonight and tomorrow's runs to nail down details. Every model can have hiccup runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: To me the Euro may have focused too much on a piece of convection well offshore and leaped the low east as a result. The phase also looked late/sloppy, so that may have been the reason. Anyway, it's reason to watch and see the 0z runs tonight and tomorrow's runs to nail down details. Every model can have hiccup runs. There were issues down south too. It was way drier over the Carolinas and MA. That may have been a result of everything else but it was just overall less juiced in that area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarrenCtyWx Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Can anyone recall a specific instance in which the Euro had a hiccup run like this that depicted a vastly different outcome than the actual storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, allgame830 said: What time does the EPS come out? 2:40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.