mimillman Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 5 minutes ago, keno19 said: You can disregard the NAM. I am following the ecmwf and CMC . if euro shows westward move over the next 2 runs then this will confirm the GFS withe west shift. The 6z GFS shifted east. Model consensus is overwhelming here. Disregard the NAM for another 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
larrye Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 16 minutes ago, allgame830 said: Well doesn't the NAM have a warm and amped up bias anyways? Yes, and that's what I've been trying to point out ... but Ulster tells us that it's amongst the best models this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Something not being discussed is the coastal flood threat. If it ends up like the GFS last night and it does hug the coast, winds will be onshore and really push the water in. The run last night had 60+ mph east winds at 15z Tue. I would think flooding would be moderate to locally major. The worst impacts seem to be timed for Tues AM's high tide. We're also close to the full moon. Another reason to hope for a further offshore track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Exactly. That's the biggest take home it looks nothing like the other models. Yes it's been good this winter and I'll give it valifidty inside 48h. as it stands right now a track right inside the benchmark looks like the best bet. I wouldn't want to be east of central Suffolk with that track. West of there a 1-2' snow looks greater then 75% likely now. Exact totals and coastal impacts are what we should focus on from here out The low placement isn't far off from the gfs. Just seems much warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 4 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Exactly. That's the biggest take home it looks nothing like the other models. Yes it's been good this winter and I'll give it valifidty inside 48h. as it stands right now a track right inside the benchmark looks like the best bet. I wouldn't want to be east of central Suffolk with that track. West of there a 1-2' snow looks greater then 75% likely now. Exact totals and coastal impacts are what we should focus on from here out The Twin Forks might have an issue if the Euro track verifies, but even there it printed out over 10". I think the track will end up inside the benchmark and maybe even over SE MA, but the tucked in nature of the low will pull cold air in. So as long as the low matures a good amount by our latitude it should be cold enough for snow. Part of the NAM and GFS's problem is how strung out/disorganized the low still is which allows warm air to make it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 12z GFS Sub-1004 just off the OBX, 66. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Looks like the SS is deeper and more separate from the NS by hour 66. Should still be a nuke. 12z 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Looks quite a bit warmer/north with the 850 0 line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 LP is slightly east off OBX and 1 mb stronger at hr 66. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Rayno says based on the 500mb Euro is stronger but warmer, GFS weaker but no mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Column crashes away at 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Beautiful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Not as juicy as 6z but still MECS quality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 E LI is probably HECS-ing this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 983 at 78 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 GFS crushes everyone... moving on lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Gfs continues the trend to the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 QPF 0.75-1.00 N NJ 1.00+ LHV, NYC, C NJ 1.25+ W LI, C LI 1.50+ E LI, 2.00+ to the tip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Not as juicy as 6z but still MECS quality.Much better than 6z actually...stronger at 983mb south of LI. A step toward the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: GFS crushes everyone... moving on lmao Right off montauk , huge storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 WOW. Moisture is getting sucked right into the CCB. Don't even bother with QPF outputs with this look in the mid-levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Almost exact same placement as 06z run. 5 mb stronger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Wet Snow Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Seems like a 10 hour thump and she's gone. Those 24 hour snow runs are gone. I think that hurts us for getting those outrageous amounts. Hard to get more than 10-15 in such a short time. Major east coast storm yes, historic, idk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just now, Heavy Wet Snow said: Seems like a 10 hour thump and she's gone. Those 24 hour snow runs are gone. I think that hurts us for getting those outrageous amounts. Hard to get more than 10-15 in such a short time. Major east coast storm yes, historic, idk Only the gfs does that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, Heavy Wet Snow said: Seems like a 10 hour thump and she's gone. Those 24 hour snow runs are gone. I think that hurts us for getting those outrageous amounts. Hard to get more than 10-15 in such a short time. Major east coast storm yes, historic, idk Makes sense. Was actually thinking such a strong storm would product more QPF - unless it was faster moving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Seems like a 10 hour thump and she's gone. Those 24 hour snow runs are gone. I think that hurts us for getting those outrageous amounts. Hard to get more than 10-15 in such a short time. Major east coast storm yes, historic, idk The 00z Euro was over 24hrs. GFS is steadily moving towards the Euro. There is blocking, Btw. Also, with the upper levels looking like that, qpf amounts are incorrect (low) and it will easily be sub 975, instead of 983.Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: Only the gfs does that Euro is probably overdone to that effect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
e46and2 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, Heavy Wet Snow said: Seems like a 10 hour thump and she's gone. Those 24 hour snow runs are gone. I think that hurts us for getting those outrageous amounts. Hard to get more than 10-15 in such a short time. Major east coast storm yes, historic, idk what you describe is still historic...it will be march 14th... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, mimillman said: Euro is probably overdone to that effect I doubt it with the block up north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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