Superstorm Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Some areas will likely dry slot rather then changeover. I think in fact that most here probably do. That SLP track hugging the NJ coast has dry slot written all over it unless it kicks way East from there.BingoSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Totally not being a di**, I know it's exciting, but let's keep the banter to a minimum, so the people that log on in the AM can get good information on the 00z runs if they missed it, without sifting through discussion... (not anyone in particular) just a statement Being one of those posters. Thank you Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 21 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Some areas will likely dry slot rather then changeover. I think in fact that most here probably do. That SLP track hugging the NJ coast has dry slot written all over it unless it kicks way East from there. The 700mb low track is the best way to find the dryslot. If it goes west of you, you'll likely be in the dryslot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 26 minutes ago, bluewave said: This looks like it could go down as one of our truly great late season blizzards with the JP zones going 20"+ and wind gusts in excess of 50 and 60 mph in spots. It will be difficult to measure since there will be so much drifting. This was the one type of extreme 2000's snow event that we have been missing until now. Late season has been the most elusive with many disappointments like March 2001 and the blizzard just missing to our SE last March 3rd. Very impressive maps. Doing quick snow math in my area. 2.0 of QPF using 1.3 to 1.5 snow math ratio = 26 - 30 inches of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mranger48 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Gefs 6z took a slight shift east from 0z. Additionally, individuals took a pretty sizable jump east. More off the coast. 0z6zSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 7 minutes ago, jm1220 said: The 700mb low track is the best way to find the dryslot. If it goes west of you, you'll likely be in the dryslot. The 00z Euro tracks H7 over my head. South fork flirts with the dryslot verbatim according to H7 RH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Jma gives NYC around 48 mm of precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 9 minutes ago, bluewave said: Looking right now as the 9th system to produce an 18" or greater max within the OKX forecast zones since the 09-10 winter. If this storm hits a foot plus at the reporting stations...the legendary run continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 8 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Jma gives NYC around 48 mm of snow that is like 2 inches of snow...ouch. CM is around 18. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, Animal said: that is like 2 inches of snow...ouch. No... the conversion rate would be to 1.89 Liquid equivalent which would be over 18". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Bottom line, a slow moving nor easter with copious Atlantic moisture and a large precipitation field extending far north and west. Is this a Miller A? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, White Gorilla said: Bottom line, a slow moving nor easter with copious Atlantic moisture and a large precipitation field extending far north and west. Is this a Miller A? No it's a Miller B. The SLP is a direct redevelopment of the Northern stream energy associated with the ULL. It's not a perfect example as a Southern stream vort is also involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just now, NJwx85 said: No it's a Miller B. The SLP is a direct redevelopment of the Northern stream energy associated with the ULL. It's not a perfect example as a Southern stream vort is also involved. So, a hybrid A and B? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 9 minutes ago, allgame830 said: No... the conversion rate would be to 1.89 Liquid equivalent which would be over 18". CM not MM. I believe he meant 48 cm, not 48 mm of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 19 minutes ago, Animal said: that is like 2 inches of snow...ouch. CM is around 18. No, that's liquid. 1.8 inches of liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 5 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: CM not MM. I believe he meant 48 cm, not 48 mm of snow. Mm of precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Glad to see the GFS tick east a bit. With the ECM position slightly west, a consensus is nearing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 The gfs is in and out in about 12-15 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 As I mentioned in another forum, almost every big storm is some form of a Miller B.A true Miller A with no redevelopment off the coast is very rare.Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 hours ago, tim said: ...being on ELI do you think we stay all snow OR does ELI mix or change to rain? gonna be a close call.. I don't think mixing in eastern areas is out of the question. I think once to 48 hours , that gets resolved. Next start to look up for a tick up in QPF. I think this ends up being a 2.5 to 3 inches of liquid event on the coast and 2 inches for most on the board. A great March Blizzard is on the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Haven't heard much from the NAM, guessing it is still a western outlier? I do realize its out of range but still curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 9 minutes ago, PB GFI said: I don't think mixing in eastern areas is out of the question. I think once to 48 hours , that gets resolved. Next start to look up for a tick up in QPF. I think this ends up being a 2.5 to 3 inches of liquid event on the coast and 2 inches for most on the board. A great March Blizzard is on the way. Curious to know why you think there will be an uptick in qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Squid1225 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 10 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said: Haven't heard much from the NAM, guessing it is still a western outlier? I do realize its out of range but still curious. 12z is just coming in now... just starting to get into its range where it will pick up the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 I think by 00z tonight models will start to blend in well... the southern stream is being sampled today by NHC, so better data should be available Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Man, I just took a look at the Euro winds. It has gusts to 70 mph at Westhampton and Montauk between 18z Tues and 00z Wed. Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: I think by 00z tonight models will start to blend in well... the southern stream is being sampled today by NHC, so better data should be available They're all blending pretty well for being 72 hours out. The next 24 hours is when we typically see one of the models do something screwy and then have to figure out if it's a trend or not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 19 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: Curious to know why you think there will be an uptick in qpf Higher resolution models start to see banding . The UKMET deepens this system 29 mb in 24 hours as it deepeing to our latitude so there's tremendous frontogenesis here . Mature systems like this usually dial it up as we get closer. This should also CCB so this has a chance to be a 24 hour system and not your typical 12 to 18 hour progressive NE snowstorm. We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, PB GFI said: Higher resolution models start to see banding . The UKMET deepens this system 29 mb in 24 hours as it deepeing to our latitude so there's tremendous frontogenesis here . Mature systems like this usually dial it up as we get closer. This should also CCB so this has a chance to be a 24 hour system and not your typical 12 to 18 progressive NE snowstorm. We will see. Thank you! That was quite educational. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Quote Mar 11 12Z (7AM EST) Model Summary Reference: 00Z Tue : 8PM EDT(Monday night) Model times: EDT: 00z / 12z (AM/PM) SREF: 8:15 NAM: 9:45 GFS: 11:30 GEFS: 12:40 GGEM: 12:35 UKMET: 12:35 ECMF: 1:45 EC Coastal Storm Timing; Overnight Monday into Wed morning Tue 06Z - Wed 18Z Potential: Holy Smokes Summary SREF: NAM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: Hurricane force wind warnings may be possible just offshore. In regards to the forecast gradients associated with this system, the 06Z GFS by forecasting an associated 60-80 kt 925 mb jet to develop immediately N and NW of its forecast low hints at the potential for hurricance force winds developing Tue morning/early afternoon offshore New Jersey and Long Island. The previous forecast package used the 00Z ECMWF boundary layer winds for this system, boosted up approximately 15 percent to account for the models low bias, which resulted in max winds up to 55 kt. So for now with the event still three days away and with the latest models still having some differences, will continue to use these ECMWF winds with only some minor additional edits in deference to the 00Z/06Z GFS and then will see later if the 12Z models dictate adjusting the winds higher. Chris , yesterdays 12z Euro had 84 mph gusts out onto ELI with 55 mph sustained winds along the NJ shore. I think those type of winds are possible here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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