March 13 - 15 Major Winter Storm Potential

[MJO812]

On 3/10/2017 at 5:28 PM, TriPol said:

And there it is. The requisite reminder of how NYC was promised more snow than it's ever received in a March snowstorm during a time where we have computer models discussing more snow than NYC has ever seen from one snowstorm and oh, yes, it's March. Didn't we just do this a few years ago and we barely got a few inches?

And again this year

[winterwarlock]

On 3/14/2017 at 9:34 AM, JetsPens87 said:

They are present in every system however specifically in this one the models were hinting for awhile now that a warm layer would sneak in around 800mb. This was supported by the forecast track of the low at 700mb. Systems are much more than a surface output, there are many vertical layers working together and the mid levels of the atmosphere have screamed to me for days that this would favor the interior.

Weather starts in the mid levels of the atmosphere and it is easy to get enamored with the pretty colors on a snow map, often forgetting what else is going on in the atmosphere. As I said, for the coastal plain when looking at the tracks of all the different vertical lows, in addition to the tucked in track of the surface low was a major red flag for the snow accumulations some guidance was printing out on the snow maps.

 

 

I would like to say I totally enjoy your posts. Your posts the past few days have been the best on here. Your knowledge is outstanding and you seem to break things down in more simpler terms for us novices and you are very reasoned with your analysis rather than just hype a big event because the maps are spitting out 20-30 amounts. Thank you for posting and looking forward to more of your posts.

 

Was it you or something else that said, it wasn't the models that were wrong, it was the forecast that was wrong...which means meteorolgists and forecasters need to take a look at themselves step back and see what they are doing wrong when they put out a forecast. Seems to me lately everyone is caught up in the hype of just regurgitating model snowfall maps and not FORECASTING based on knowledge, science, climo and those intangible flies in the ointment

[Dark Star]

On ‎03‎/‎15‎/‎2017 at 11:47 AM, winterwarlock said:

 

 

I would like to say I totally enjoy your posts. Your posts the past few days have been the best on here. Your knowledge is outstanding and you seem to break things down in more simpler terms for us novices and you are very reasoned with your analysis rather than just hype a big event because the maps are spitting out 20-30 amounts. Thank you for posting and looking forward to more of your posts.

 

Was it you or something else that said, it wasn't the models that were wrong, it was the forecast that was wrong...which means meteorolgists and forecasters need to take a look at themselves step back and see what they are doing wrong when they put out a forecast. Seems to me lately everyone is caught up in the hype of just regurgitating model snowfall maps and not FORECASTING based on knowledge, science, climo and those intangible flies in the ointment

It was Jeff Berardelli who used to say, "The devil is in the details".  In hindsight, there should be some indication in the models (or interpretation) that indicate what was truly going to occur in each storm.  The trick is to know which indicator(s) is/are correct, which is the true test of a meteorologist (one reason I am not a professional forecaster anymore).  Oddly, amongst the general media forecasts, not too many were hedging on this one.  I swallowed the hype, hoping for the best, even though I figured my area would get about 6" snow before a changeover to sleet, and then hopefully back to snow.  If you looked at the water vapor loop early Monday, it was indicating that the storm would take a perfect track.  By Monday afternoon, as the storm was beginning to phase,  the water vapor suggested the track would be tight to the coast.  I'm sure lots of signs were ignored.  I don't think the NWS forecasts should appear to be motivated other than to provide the best forecast for the public (who pay the bills).