nyblizz44 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 2 minutes ago, RU848789 said: 4.5" as of 5 am, after a nice shovel. Sleet line looks like it's approaching the Raritan - if that's true and if the cold air from dynamics as the storm strengthens doesn't push that sleet line back soon, this will be a pretty big bust. Still hoping, but very worried. You aren't the only one. Approaching 3 inches in Queens but it's snowing lightly even though radar presentation indicates heavy. Moreover I know parts of LI and they're already mixing. Let's see what happens with those Dynamics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 1 minute ago, nyblizz44 said: You aren't the only one. Approaching 3 inches in Queens but it's snowing lightly even though radar presentation indicates heavy. Moreover I know parts of LI and they're already mixing. Let's see what happens with those Dynamics Snow has lightened here too in the last 10 mins as that push gets real close haven't heard a ping yet and again if you look at the dual pol it seems to have sunk past couple of frames Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadocane Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Center is already down to 993/994 Mbs located over the Virginia Cape. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=17&parm=pmsl&underlay=1&source=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Mixing line still marching north -- though starting to slow down. Should clear the city soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike1984 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 15 minutes ago, RU848789 said: Bill Evans on ABC7 just cut I-95/NYC to 3-6" then sleet, then rain. Wow. He's changed the map about 3 times this morning already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 17 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Blizzard warning dropped for the south shore Should be dropped for more areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Well you know who backed down? NWS that's who. The city is already down from 12-20 to 8-16, the Blizzard warning still up. No comment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 1 minute ago, tmagan said: Should be dropped for more areas. I thought accumulations didn't make or break a blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Just now, seanick said: I thought accumulations didn't make or break a blizzard Interesting to ponder. Should they say blizzard conditions as opposed to blizzard, because the public idea of blizzard is a massive snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 29 minutes ago, RU848789 said: 4.5" as of 5 am, after a nice shovel. Sleet line looks like it's approaching the Raritan - if that's true and if the cold air from dynamics as the storm strengthens doesn't push that sleet line back soon, this will be a pretty big bust. Still hoping, but very worried. 5.0" as of 5:30 am. Still all snow, but that sleet line looks like it's only 5-6 miles south of me at the Raritan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 1 minute ago, RU848789 said: 5.0" as of 5:30 am. Still all snow, but that sleet line looks like it's only 5-6 miles south of me at the Raritan. When is this thing supposed to end? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Seems to be mixing here in baldwin more sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Good AFD update by Upton...would be nice if Mt. Holly updated... National Weather Service New York NY 531 AM EDT Tue Mar 14 2017 .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... *** Heavy snow for the morning commute - Dangerous Driving Conditions with snow fall rates of 2-4 inches an hour likely*** *** Blizzard Conditions with 1-2 feet of snow across mainly interior portions of the Tri-State and 8-16 inches of snow and sleet across NYC/NW Long Island and Coastal SW CT *** *** Near Blizzard Conditions with 4-12 inches of snow and sleet mainly this morning over coastal SE CT, the South Shore/Twin Forks of Long Island *** Storm track continues to slide westward. As a result expect SE portions of the area to mix with sleet and rain this morning and possibly to all rain this afternoon. Sleet now expected to mix in with snow over NYC/NW Long Island/SW CT and possibly lower West Chester County reducing snow totals there. Still have the potential for 2 feet of snow over the NE 1/4 of the CWA. Strong Gusty winds remain a threat - with gusts of 40-50mph expected CWA wide, with isolated gusts of 55 to 60 mph possible over mainly coastal areas. The strongest gusts should be from 13-17z. Precipitation changes to all snow before ending this evening. It should be dry overnight, except for maybe some snow showers moving in late tonight in far W Orange County. Comments on models - NAM appears a western outlier, forecast based on a GFS/SREF/WRF-NMM/WRF-ARW blend. 00Z ECMWF falls in well with this cluster. Concerns with forecast - with westward shift in track - increasing potential for dry air to work in aloft - so precipitation could end sooner than expected with a period of freezing drizzle possible late this afternoon/evening. If this occurs, then snow fall totals, especially over the NW 1/2 of the CWA could need to be reduced by 6" or so. If NAM ends up being correct, then even larger reductions would be needed over most of the CWA. While banding appears most likely to the NW of NYC - still not fully confident in location/orientation. As a result, locally higher amounts are possible over portions of the lower Hudson Valley and interior NE NJ/SW CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Mix of snow and sleet in belle mead..about 4 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Finally lost the sleet battle for now. Mixture of mostly sleet and some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Chances are my 8-14" for NYC busts high? Was trying to avoid that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 8 minutes ago, mimillman said: Chances are my 8-14" for NYC busts high? Was trying to avoid that... Impossible to say right now. That sleet/snow line battle is intense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 57 minutes ago, seanick said: I thought accumulations didn't make or break a blizzard You can have a blizzard in clear skies, no one in and around the city or Long Island will see blizzard conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Sleet in brooklyn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Use the obs thread for the obs guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 I'm far away for this one but I'm rooting hard for you guys. Unfortunately at this point I think sleet will make it well up into NNJ and the lower HV. But if you can keep the rain away, a sleet blizzard could be pretty fun. A change back over to snow towards the end would ease the disappointment somewhat. And it will create an impressively bulletproof pack for March. The guys in C&NE PA, as well as the southern tier of NY into the Catskills haven't had any big snowstorms in the past decade. As much as I'm disappointed for this region, I'm happy for the interior guys who've been playing for scraps for so long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Models typically underestimate mid level warmth. This is extremely unfortunate for this area as even my original 8 to 14 across CNJ looks like it is in major jeopardy. Still will hold to the 12 to 18 across NNJ/Seny and definitely NEPA. Also those areas should have jackpots locally of more. Now I believe that the 78 corridor will be the cutoff for significant sleet impacts on totals. Dynamic cooling is one thing but when you're messing with mid levels like we are dealing with it rarely turns out well for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 1 hour ago, JetsPens87 said: Models typically underestimate mid level warmth. This is extremely unfortunate for this area as even my original 8 to 14 across CNJ looks like it is in major jeopardy. Still will hold to the 12 to 18 across NNJ/Seny and definitely NEPA. Also those areas should have jackpots locally of more. Now I believe that the 78 corridor will be the cutoff for significant sleet impacts on totals. Dynamic cooling is one thing but when you're messing with mid levels like we are dealing with it rarely turns out well for this area. What causes these midlevels and why are they not present in some storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 12 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: What causes these midlevels and why are they not present in some storms? They are present in every system however specifically in this one the models were hinting for awhile now that a warm layer would sneak in around 800mb. This was supported by the forecast track of the low at 700mb. Systems are much more than a surface output, there are many vertical layers working together and the mid levels of the atmosphere have screamed to me for days that this would favor the interior. Weather starts in the mid levels of the atmosphere and it is easy to get enamored with the pretty colors on a snow map, often forgetting what else is going on in the atmosphere. As I said, for the coastal plain when looking at the tracks of all the different vertical lows, in addition to the tucked in track of the surface low was a major red flag for the snow accumulations some guidance was printing out on the snow maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Just now, JetsPens87 said: They are present in every system however specifically in this one the models were hinting for awhile now that a warm layer would sneak in around 800mb. This was supported by the forecast track of the low at 700mb. Systems are much more than a surface output, there are many vertical layers working together and the mid levels of the atmosphere have screamed to me for days that this would favor the interior. Weather starts in the mid levels of the atmosphere and it is often over looked by hobbyists enamored with the pretty colors on a snow map, often forgetting what else is going on in the atmosphere. As I said, for the coastal plain when looking at the tracks of all the different vertical lows, in addition to the tucked in track of the surface low was a major red flag for the snow accumulations some guidance was printing out on the snow maps. Well historically, what you talked about also jives with the typical storms I've seen in March over a lifetime.....usually sleet mixes or wet snow. They just seem to be the thing and especially in years where we don't have much blocking, we tend to get sleet fests when the interior gets snow. Some examples are Feb 07, March 07, March 94, and March 93. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 2 hours ago, weatherpruf said: Well historically, what you talked about also jives with the typical storms I've seen in March over a lifetime.....usually sleet mixes or wet snow. They just seem to be the thing and especially in years where we don't have much blocking, we tend to get sleet fests when the interior gets snow. Some examples are Feb 07, March 07, March 94, and March 93. Exactly, This goes back to the climo argument. While climo does not affect any individual event specifically but rather means over a longer time period, it is certainly applicable in my opinion to make the argument "well climo suggests"... Trust me when I say I factored in what climo would suggest when I arrived at my forecast of a NNJ/HV jackpot despite models at that time playing with an I95 historic storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 7 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said: Exactly, This goes back to the climo argument. While climo does not affect any individual event specifically but rather means over a longer time period, it is certainly applicable in my opinion to make the argument "well climo suggests"... Trust me when I say I factored in what climo would suggest when I arrived at my forecast of a NNJ/HV jackpot despite models at that time playing with an I95 historic storm. Its funny how a couple days ago we were worried about whether we'd phase and get slammed or get a fast moving moderate snow event with a low well offshore. And it unfolded very differently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 3 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said: Exactly, This goes back to the climo argument. While climo does not affect any individual event specifically but rather means over a longer time period, it is certainly applicable in my opinion to make the argument "well climo suggests"... Trust me when I say I factored in what climo would suggest when I arrived at my forecast of a NNJ/HV jackpot despite models at that time playing with an I95 historic storm. I know very little about meteorology but I know some things and people tend to ask me what's going on with it, because I read you folks in here. This makes me sound knowledgeable to other people. I have a good memory for bits of info making me sound way more informed than I am; my doctors call me the professor. But because I have this weird knack for remembering weather events ( and other things like which years had better flounder fishing ) I knew from years experience this is how March winter storms tend to pan out for us; even when they stay snow, it may be a wet snow and 5-6 inches will fall and be down to 3-4 by the end of the day. So when you made your forecast I immediately thought it would probably be correct. It's why for the most part I don't worry much about hurricanes. They happen here, but in my lifetime of 54 years there has been one that affected me like Sandy. Smaller ones like Floyd caused severe flooding for those who lived in flood plains, like Bound Brook, but that was it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 3 hours ago, JetsPens87 said: They are present in every system however specifically in this one the models were hinting for awhile now that a warm layer would sneak in around 800mb. This was supported by the forecast track of the low at 700mb. Systems are much more than a surface output, there are many vertical layers working together and the mid levels of the atmosphere have screamed to me for days that this would favor the interior. Weather starts in the mid levels of the atmosphere and it is easy to get enamored with the pretty colors on a snow map, often forgetting what else is going on in the atmosphere. As I said, for the coastal plain when looking at the tracks of all the different vertical lows, in addition to the tucked in track of the surface low was a major red flag for the snow accumulations some guidance was printing out on the snow maps. Thanks for this post, I shared it over in the Philadelphia forum. Your posts and replys are simple and informative. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Is it me or does the 12z euro take this se then back NW? (I have 24 hr frames) Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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