real Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Folks in the Mid-Atlantic thread complaining HRRR was way off down there tonight, as one put it, "massive failure."" Doesn't that bode ill for our hopes that NYC and elsewhere hold off on mixing till late? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 12 minutes ago, real said: Folks in the Mid-Atlantic thread complaining HRRR was way off down there tonight, as one put it, "massive failure."" Doesn't that bode ill for our hopes that NYC and elsewhere hold off on mixing till late? Mix line looks to be at or near TTN running due E on 195 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 1 minute ago, snywx said: Mix line looks to be at or near TTN running due E on 195 Mostly snow still TTN went back down .2 now at 32.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Just now, Bluescat1 said: Mostly snow still TTN went back down .2 now at 32.2 Im assuming you are mixing then.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 5 minutes ago, snywx said: Mix line looks to be at or near TTN running due E on 195 Isn't that farther north than we expected/hoped at this stage? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 As of 3:30 am, we have 2" of snow on the ground andn 29F. I truly hope that mix line doesn't get here before 8-9 am... No Euro/UK snowfall maps? Not that it matters that much at this point - just curious... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Yes but still mostly snow. 1 minute ago, snywx said: Im assuming you are mixing then.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 2 minutes ago, snywx said: Im assuming you are mixing then.. Seems to be stopping right at trenton radar filling in nicely here down to 27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Even 8 or 9 am would be pretty dreadful. Don't really see how the city can give up many hours, especially that early, of accumulating snow and still approach anywhere near forceast amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Heavy snow, comfortably an inch an hour, possibly 1.5. approaching 2 inches OTG, Kew Gardens. Snow picked up big time 30 minutes ago. Bands literally rolling south to north on Upton radar and radar looking quite healthy to the in NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 SPC meso disco http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0292.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 DM you still like where nyc and NNJ sit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 2 minutes ago, swamplover56 said: DM you still like where nyc and NNJ sit? BIGTIME 56 the meso disco spells it out ...don't ya think??? I will ride with the NDFD .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 1 minute ago, Doorman said: BIGTIME 56 the meso disco spells it out ...don't ya think??? I will ride with the NDFD .... Thanks Tommy know when you are going big to pay attention Keep doing your thing hope things are good in your world Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 14 minutes ago, Doorman said: SPC meso disco http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0292.html That would put me about 5 miles SE of the blue line of mega snow and into the slop fest of sleet. That would suck - starting to just hope we don't turn to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Hope you are right... The disco appeared to zero in just north of the city from Westchester north. Unclear if they intentionally did that to avoid city thinking it will mix, and city is also south/east of the I-95 line referenced.. Whatever the case, moderate if not heavy snow now here in Harlem. It's drifting so hard to measure, some spots on sidewalks bare while others building up drifts. I would guess 2 to 3 inches so far, and plows are now out. I think the city starts plowing when 3 inches accumulates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 5 minutes ago, real said: Hope you are right... The disco appeared to zero in just north of the city from Westchester north. Unclear if they intentionally did that to avoid city thinking it will mix, and city is also south/east of the I-95 line referenced.. Whatever the case, moderate if not heavy snow now here in Harlem. It's drifting so hard to measure, some spots on sidewalks bare while others building up drifts. I would guess 2 to 3 inches so far, and plows are now out. I think the city starts plowing when 3 inches accumulates. As cyclogenesis continues to occur, observations/short-term guidance are suggestive that the surface wet-bulb zero line will continue to slowly transition northward across parts of DE/NJ toward the NYC metro. This is suggestive of a more transitional/mixed precipitation type along the I-95 corridor. A longer duration of heavy-snow-optimal profiles, attributable to increasing lift coincident with a deep/saturated dendritic layer, are expected just west/northwest of the I-95 corridor from northern parts of VA and MD into south-central/eastern PA, northern NJ, much of southern NY, and eventually nearby CT/MA through 12-15Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Just now, Rjay said: As cyclogenesis continues to occur, observations/short-term guidance are suggestive that the surface wet-bulb zero line will continue to slowly transition northward across parts of DE/NJ toward the NYC metro. This is suggestive of a more transitional/mixed precipitation type along the I-95 corridor. A longer duration of heavy-snow-optimal profiles, attributable to increasing lift coincident with a deep/saturated dendritic layer, are expected just west/northwest of the I-95 corridor from northern parts of VA and MD into south-central/eastern PA, northern NJ, much of southern NY, and eventually nearby CT/MA through 12-15Z. Are they implying the city mixes by sunrise-8am? If so, we won't even see 6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 3 minutes ago, NortheastPAWx said: Are they implying the city mixes by sunrise-8am? If so, we won't even see 6". Starting to think that is distinct possibility, but guess we have to wait and see. Wondering if Bucks County Pa outside of Philadelphia is snow or sleet. They were also under a Blizzard Warning for 12 to 16 inches with dire language issued yesterday about traveling there during the morning rush. But they are also west of 95. If the sleet already stretches that far west in Bucks, don't really see how the city avoids it, short of incredible dynamics -- that are still possible but we could come up short this time.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 take a good hard look at the image you see the outer ring?......Well ??? good then If you really love snow and your down about your risk of changeover take a walk outside...you will feel a whole lot better!!! It's the Middle of March gosh dang it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 The new nam flips everyone to sleet up to sussex We shall see New hrrr is not as great either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 NWS going all in with it remaining snow from I-95/NJ TPK N and W obviously, all the way from Trenton to NYC. Not sure I'm buying it, but these guys should know more about this than I do. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 That's comforting.. Not sure i buy it either, but you are right. If they were going to backtrack, now would be time to do it, before everyone wakes up. So good to see... EDIT -- Upton's reissued blizzard warnings call for 8 to 16 inches of "snow and sleet" in the Metro area and 1 to 2 feet north and west. . http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=NYZ176&warncounty=NYC081&firewxzone=NYZ176&local_place1=Sunnyside NY&product1=Blizzard+Warning&lat=40.7441&lon=-73.9207#.WMesa2OfeCQ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 9 minutes ago, RU848789 said: NWS going all in with it remaining snow from I-95/NJ TPK N and W obviously, all the way from Trenton to NYC. Not sure I'm buying it, but these guys should know more about this than I do. . HMMM that gives me a pause that map has a huge bust potential guess they think the dynamics will overcome the warm layers I was feeling much better a couple hours ago This is what its about though Good to see nws stick to their guns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kleimax Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 1 hour ago, real said: Folks in the Mid-Atlantic thread complaining HRRR was way off down there tonight, as one put it, "massive failure."" Doesn't that bode ill for our hopes that NYC and elsewhere hold off on mixing till late? I'm down here 30 min northwest of Baltimore with a 500 foot elevation. Been sleeting here hard since about 1am... everyone here is getting sleet. probably had 3 inches of snow before the switch. Philly switched to sleet now also and I know it's a major bust down here.. hopefully it stays all snow for you guys but just a warning that we weren't supposed to switch that early down here. I'll go back to my forum now. Good luck fellas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Im sitting 4 miles north of 78 with elevation I know some mesos have it mixing briefly than the column collapses again when heavier precip arrives not feeling confident for the first time We will know soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 35 minutes ago, RU848789 said: NWS going all in with it remaining snow from I-95/NJ TPK N and W obviously, all the way from Trenton to NYC. Not sure I'm buying it, but these guys should know more about this than I do. . They are probably wrong. No way from just looking outside, if the sleet is getting to TTN already, is this storm going to be anything close to that for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 4.5" as of 5 am, after a nice shovel. Sleet line looks like it's approaching the Raritan - if that's true and if the cold air from dynamics as the storm strengthens doesn't push that sleet line back soon, this will be a pretty big bust. Still hoping, but very worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 23 minutes ago, Kleimax said: I'm down here 30 min northwest of Baltimore with a 500 foot elevation. Been sleeting here hard since about 1am... everyone here is getting sleet. probably had 3 inches of snow before the switch. Philly switched to sleet now also and I know it's a major bust down here.. hopefully it stays all snow for you guys but just a warning that we weren't supposed to switch that early down here. I'll go back to my forum now. Good luck fellas Thanks. My instincts were that we'd get to maybe 6 just southeast of NYC, maybe less. It has been snowing since 11 pm or a little later and we have just a normal snow here. I've seen my share of double digit storms and there should be a lot more on the ground if that were going to happen....we've got 2-3....so unless it doesn't sleet, this will be nothing special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Blizzard warning dropped for the south shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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