jm1220 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 5 minutes ago, Paragon said: Thats actually a really good track for us It's all about the slingshot north happening in a good place, which would be allowing the southern stream system to escape a little before the northern stream dives in and amplifies the flow. Every model except the GFS is doing this now, hopefully the GFS creeps east and we form the consensus. The GFS often has a bias to overdo the northern stream, so hopefully that's what's happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just now, jm1220 said: It's all about the slingshot north happening in a good place, which would be allowing the southern stream system to escape a little before the northern stream dives in and amplifies the flow. Every model except the GFS is doing this now, hopefully the GFS creeps east and we form the consensus. The GFS often has a bias to overdo the northern stream, so hopefully that's what's happening. If we got a 50/50 compromise between the two 0z runs would that still be a really good track for us, JM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just now, Paragon said: oh yea my bad bro, I sorry wish I could actually find a really good March analog for this though to know what to expect This isn't much like March 2001-see Don S's post earlier in the thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 4 minutes ago, jm1220 said: It's all about the slingshot north happening in a good place, which would be allowing the southern stream system to escape a little before the northern stream dives in and amplifies the flow. Every model except the GFS is doing this now, hopefully the GFS creeps east and we form the consensus. The GFS often has a bias to overdo the northern stream, so hopefully that's what's happening. funny thing is I always thought the GFS had a SE bias. We were talking about how the only major bust for the Euro in recent memory was the Jan 2015 storm. Why do you think it busted in that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Totally not being a di**, I know it's exciting, but let's keep the banter to a minimum, so the people that log on in the AM can get good information on the 00z runs if they missed it, without sifting through discussion... (not anyone in particular) just a statement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 4 minutes ago, Paragon said: funny thing is I always thought the GFS had a SE bias. We were talking about how the only major bust for the Euro in recent memory was the Jan 2015 storm. Why do you think it busted in that? The SE bias is actually the same bias. The GFS often is too suppressed because it overdoes the northern stream, which can act as a kicker/suppressor of the pattern, but it can also overamplify the pattern because of the northern stream diving in too much and overpowering the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just now, jm1220 said: The SE bias is actually the same bias. The GFS often is too suppressed because it overdoes the northern stream, which can act as a kicker/suppressor of the pattern, but it can also overamplify the pattern because of the northern stream diving in too much and overpowering the trough. ah I see what you mean- normally we see the former, since that is so common in a progressive pattern, but if we have a storm in the right spot, we can also see the latter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just found it myself.. eps tracks nearly identical to euro.. comes off Delmarva, east of jersey, and finishes just south of cape.. just inside BM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just now, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Just found it myself.. eps tracks nearly identical to euro.. comes off Delmarva, east of jersey, and finishes just south of cape.. just inside BM oh really nice track! individual members yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, Paragon said: oh really nice track! individual members yet? Not yet, but mean snowfall is west, heavier snows get further inland. 12--20 for everyone regardless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Not yet, but mean snowfall is west, heavier snows get further inland. 12--20 for everyone regardless same track as OP but wider area of heavier snows across the board? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Its perfect for everyone.. slight W of 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Actually Billy, hold on a sec......can you do a map with the 0z GEFS and compare to the 0z EPS- they look quite similar, especially with the left leaning member majority clustered just to the west of the mean on both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, Paragon said: Actually Billy, hold on a sec......can you do a map with the 0z GEFS and compare to the 0z EPS- they look quite similar, especially with the left leaning member majority clustered just to the west of the mean on both. gefs slightly west, but yea their close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just saw the EPS mean snowfall totals and there are two maxima that I can see, one is in NE NJ and the other is near Boston lol. These are smoothed out so you would expect them to show less snow than OP runs right? Either way we are good, it's just hard to tell totals on EPS because everything is a slightly different shade of pink lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 hour ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: gefs slightly west, but yea their close lol they are so close, one is due south of Islip at the latitude of Atlantic City and the other is due south of Westhampton at the latitude of Ocean City. GEFS has a bit more west leaning members over land though in SE PA and the LHV while the EPS doesn't have any- although I don't know what that bunch is over the Great Lakes LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 most of you young whipper snappers probably weren't even born yet, but the closest analog I compare this to (in terms of wind + snow ) ... is the 93 Super Storm - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1993_Storm_of_the_Century even back then, the NWS did a great job sounding the alarm several days beforehand. (red scrolls on TWC like 4 to 5 days beforehand) they should be doing the same now.... no need to wait too long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 22 minutes ago, Sophisticated Skeptic said: most of you young whipper snappers probably weren't even born yet, but the closest analog I compare this to (in terms of wind + snow ) ... is the 93 Super Storm - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1993_Storm_of_the_Century even back then, the NWS did a great job sounding the alarm several days beforehand. (red scrolls on TWC like 4 to 5 days beforehand) they should be doing the same now.... no need to wait too long. Another one was April 1982, combo of cold and snow late in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 hour ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Its perfect for everyone.. slight W of 12z Billy and the rest thanks for all the info and posting maps ! Woke up to see 8 new pages of posts and am very glad they are not suicidal posts but rather everyone in the GAME in a big way posts ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 hours ago, RedSky said: The dawn awakening slips into a coma lol his enthusiasm is intoxicating at times, but my god, he has experienced two 3 footers at 10-12 to 1 ratios!!! jan 05, jan 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Basically, what it boils down to is this...... 0z GEFS mean has it due south of Islip at the latitude of Atlantic City and 0z EPS mean has it due south of Westhampton Beach at the latitude of Ocean City at the same time...... forget the oscillating GFS OP and even the Euro OP and concentrate on the ENS means until inside of 48 hours. The Euro is now in its killer range so doubt it changes much from this point, and if the furthest West the storm gets is ISP-FOK then I think we'll be fine. Actually it will probably be somewhat east of that since it was already at this longitude when it was 100 miles south of us on BOTH ens means! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 6z GFS finally decided to join the party and caves towards the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaPo Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Very impressive run for the NYC Metro and NNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 0zGEFS/6GFS/EPS/GEM/UKMET/ all are now on track for a major snowstorm for the entire board. Like we said yesterday the GFS should come east as it was wrong with its CF due N near the delmarva bringing rain into NYC. Thats resolving itself. I continue to like 15 to 20 for a large portion of the area with a top of 25 showing up somewhere , those JP details will be refined over the next day . Blizzard Warnings will go up Monday for almost all of ENJ/NYC/LI/SECT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 7 minutes ago, PB GFI said: 0zGEFS/6GFS/EPS/GEM/UKMET/ all are now on track for a major snowstorm for the entire board. Like we said yesterday the GFS should come east as it was wrong with its CF due N near the delmarva bringing rain into NYC. Thats resolving itself. I continue to like 15 to 20 for a large portion of the area with a top of 25 showing up somewhere , those JP details will be refined over the next day . Blizzard Warnings will go up Monday for almost all of ENJ/NYC/LI/SECT. If models have indeed started to converge on a track like currently being depicted, your jackpot of 25 might be too low. There are other issues at play here. There is robust blocking up north. Does the storm slow down or even stalls out for a while? Second, once we get within the range of the higher resolution models, they may very well pick up on the true nature with this beast as far as the CCB is concerned. If this storm lives up to its full potential I can see someone ending up with 30+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 I would expect watches to go out around 4 o'clock in the morning, tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 39 minutes ago, PB GFI said: 0zGEFS/6GFS/EPS/GEM/UKMET/ all are now on track for a major snowstorm for the entire board. Like we said yesterday the GFS should come east as it was wrong with its CF due N near the delmarva bringing rain into NYC. Thats resolving itself. I continue to like 15 to 20 for a large portion of the area with a top of 25 showing up somewhere , those JP details will be refined over the next day . Blizzard Warnings will go up Monday for almost all of ENJ/NYC/LI/SECT. ...being on ELI do you think we stay all snow OR does ELI mix or change to rain? gonna be a close call.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, tim said: ...being on ELI do you think we stay all snow OR does ELI mix or change to rain? gonna be a close call.. That's the one area I would say has a legit shot at a change over at least for a time. You can use past storms as a good indication of that. Boxing Day is a good example. I'm talking the twin forks. As I have been thinking all along (despite the gfs suicides) NYC west is good to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Now that we're within 3 days with great agreement among the models, it's time to talk details. The exact track isn't set in stone just yet but we're getting there. But will we get a prolonged storm like the Euro showed, how strong will it end up, and who will get the most. Big weekend coming up for all those details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Some areas will likely dry slot rather then changeover. I think in fact that most here probably do. That SLP track hugging the NJ coast has dry slot written all over it unless it kicks way East from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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