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March 13 - 15 Major Winter Storm Potential


NEG NAO

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25 minutes ago, USCG RS said:


It's indicating a full phase. Where that happens, those north and NW are going to get absolutely demolished. If this happens around acy or oc and a little off the coast, li and nyc get absolutely rocked.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk
 

HRRR at 18z.. 

Screen Shot 2017-03-14 at 1.51.19 AM.png

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55 minutes ago, cjr231 said:

I'm on 10th avenue in the city. Can see Hoboken from my apt. And it's snowing here. I've only been reading and lurking but your incessant negativity is downright ridiculous. Why don't you take a nap. You'll wake up at 6am to a wintery scene. 

Missed the negativity, but i'm on 43rd & 10th, where are you?! Wanna drink some beers and watch the snow fall at landsdown tomorrow? 

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1 minute ago, nyblizz44 said:

By 4am NY and environs look to be nuked 30 DBZ++ acording to radar trends down stream, already snowing moderatly and .75 of an inch OTG in Kew Gardens 

Some reporting sleet, some reporting heavy snows with some of those bands down south. Dual pol had a distinct sleet line creeping further north. Probably sleet reflections.

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1 minute ago, ScottB said:

Some reporting sleet, some reporting heavy snows with some of those bands down south. Dual pol had a distinct sleet line creeping further north. Probably sleet reflections.

The line is in fact creeping to Philly but our temps have dropped from 33 to 29 at JFK and 28 at CPK and the HRR shows evaporational cooling with heavy banding will hold the mix line at bay or push it south as the bands crank. No model shows any mixing before 10 am in worst case scenario ( ignoring what appears to be a rather faulty NAM IMO). Lets just say the REGM , GGEM , Euro and HRR are handeling situation far better than the NAM IMHO

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6 minutes ago, nyblizz44 said:

The line is in fact creeping to Philly but our temps have dropped from 33 to 29 at JFK and 28 at CPK and the HRR shows evaporational cooling with heavy banding will hold the mix line at bay or push it south as the bands crank. No model shows any mixing before 10 am in worst case scenario ( ignoring what appears to be a rather faulty NAM IMO). Lets just say the REGM , GGEM , Euro and HRR are handeling situation far better than the NAM IMHO

Oh I agree, just being cautiously optimistic. Have heard reports of both heavy sleet and heavy paste. I do not trust 35 db echos creeping north during snowstorms lol

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2 minutes ago, ScottB said:

Oh I agree, just being cautiously optimistic. Have heard reports of both heavy sleet and heavy paste. I do not trust 30 db echos creeping north during snowstorms lol

Generally the yellow returns will turn to dark greens once they cross the mix line on radar. So yeah maybe not 30 DBZs but still SN+ or SN++.

Wouldn't be surprised to see some yellow returns above the mix line later today when the coastal really takes over and crawls like the HRRR is showing. 

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