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March 13 - 15 Major Winter Storm Potential


NEG NAO

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8 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Thank you for measuring I use yours as my official tally. 

No problem - this one is going to get tough though, when the winds come.  Don't know if you recall, but the measurements during last year's blizzard were so all over the place in my usually reliable back yard that I resorted to driving 1/2 mile to a local football field and walking out 50 yards through 2 feet of snow to get to an area which looked to be reasonably undisturbed to get some good measurements with minimal variance.  I got 23" iirc and someone else in Metuchen reported 27", which made it to national TV and I was like, c'mon, that can't be correct - no way someone in town had 4" more than I did, so I assume the guy measured a driftier area and was not a representative measurement.  

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3 minutes ago, cjr231 said:

I'm on 10th avenue in the city. Can see Hoboken from my apt. And it's snowing here. I've only been reading and lurking but your incessant negativity is downright ridiculous. Why don't you take a nap. You'll wake up at 6am to a wintery scene. 

I think he needs a day long nap, this isnt Debbie downerism, there is consistent trolling here. Im sure Mods are watching. In any case, here in Kew gardens the snow started 10 minutes ago as flurries and is already a steady light snow with falke size noticebly growing in the last 5 minutes

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23 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

... I think the NAM was overdone, but it's hard to discount it totally this close in. 

That's the problem I am having.  There's something not quite right, but I've always liked that model inside 24 - 36 hours.  It's been my go-to at this range for sure.  SOmethings off, but maybe that's just wishful thinking.  Then again, we stayed all frozen 2/13/14, even had zr while OC had plain rain.  A number of the models earlier today were stubbornly keeping a little sliver of snow right along the north shore into tomorrow aftenoon.  One can dream.

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Ocean parkway where? Finally getting light snow on the UWS after virga. 

Winds at the bouts definitely jumped up the last two hours but still out of the dangerous east 


By Meadowbrook

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21 minutes ago, nyblizz44 said:

I think he needs a day long nap, this isnt Debbie downerism, there is consistent trolling here. Im sure Mods are watching. In any case, here in Kew gardens the snow started 10 minutes ago as flurries and is already a steady light snow with falke size noticebly growing in the last 5 minutes

Boy you got that right. Been that way for days. Pretty confident for at least a foot but hoping for 18 here in extreme NENJ. Alarm set for 5. Goodnight all. 

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5 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said:

Boy you got that right. Been that way for days. Pretty confident for at least a foot but hoping for 18 here in extreme NENJ. Alarm set for 5. Goodnight all. 

A foot? Hope you are right but I dont think you are. 

 

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Man the hrrr keeps getting colder and pushing huge snowfall amounts farther south in nj and nyc it refuses to budge just keeps getting better


Its not done moving se yet imo

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1 minute ago, swamplover56 said:

Man the hrrr keeps getting colder and pushing huge snowfall amounts farther south in nj and nyc it refuses to budge just keeps getting better

I personally think anyone N of 80 and west of the Hudson is in for an historic storm. NYC is on the cusp of either 12" or 20". Its gonna come down to how far that mix line pushes W

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2 minutes ago, snywx said:

04z HRRR Slows this puppy down big time from 18z to 22z right underneath LI

 

Screen Shot 2017-03-14 at 1.44.24 AM.png

not sure what you arre referring to but the 04Z model is faster than 03Z...reading these threads at times makes me believe the media has hacked members accounts.

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not sure what you arre referring to but the 04Z model is faster than 03Z...reading these threads at times makes me believe the media has hacked members accounts.


I assure you, he knows what he's talking about.

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From 18z to 22z its hanging out S of LI. Barely budging. Take a peek 


It's indicating a full phase. Where that happens, those north and NW are going to get absolutely demolished. If this happens around acy or oc and a little off the coast, li and nyc get absolutely rocked.

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2 minutes ago, USCG RS said:


I assure you, he knows what he's talking about.

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4 minutes ago, swamplover56 said:

HOw many posters are you going to go after today snywx has been here forever

Thanks guys.. He is just trolling doesn't bother me one bit

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I agree. Even if it doesn't it IMO is understanding the dynamic cooling properly, I know the term is often overused, but this is truly a dynamic setup. 


Outside of a text book, I have never seen such an amazing set up for this area. And by text book, I mean a diagram.

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