NYCGreg Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 6 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Dover DE radar looks amazing. This is what the coast has to cash in overnight and bring dynamics in to keep the mix line out as long as possible. There could be some nice totals quickly if the snow shield stays the way it is now. Unless, of course, the low is actually forming - and possibly tracks - East of where the models had it. In two threads, however, I don't see any discussion on what is actually happening; only a discussion of the models still running. And I'm not smart enough in meteorology to determine what is actually going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 18 minutes ago, Snow88 said: It ticked slightly west there is no margin for error. Anyone on LI needs it to shift at least 75 mile east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Moderate snow. 25F. .25". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Radar is looking great with a plume of moisture on our doorstep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Definitely a nice wall of heavy snow developing over S NJ and Philly. A good sign that at least the NAM will be wrong. If it really comes down until 8am (12z when models suggest the coast should start changing over), there could be some significant totals. At this point if I make it to 8" I'll be happy. Central Park I could still see making it to 15" if things break right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 2 minutes ago, NYCGreg said: Unless, of course, the low is actually forming - and possibly tracks - East of where the models had it. In two threads, however, I don't see any discussion on what is actually happening; only a discussion of the models still running. And I'm not smart enough in meteorology to determine what is actually going on. The pressure falls chart I last saw suggests the low heading off the NC coast, but that would be well east of any modeling. If it heads to the Tidewater instead that would be a good sign and more reasonable given the 500mb charts and vorticity/divergence aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Definitely a nice wall of heavy snow developing over S NJ and Philly. A good sign that at least the NAM will be wrong. If it really comes down until 8am (12z when models suggest the coast should start changing over), there could be some significant totals. At this point if I make it to 8" I'll be happy. Central Park I could still see making it to 15" if things break right. The raadr beyond exploded in the last hour, NJ had maybe 40% coverage light to moderate presentation and it looks to be over 80% and all heavy snow. If it comes on like a wall things could get very interesting very fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: The pressure falls chart I last saw suggests the low heading off the NC coast, but that would be well east of any modeling. If it heads to the Tidewater instead that would be a good sign and more reasonable given the 500mb charts and vorticity/divergence aloft. The flow is almost directly out of the South. This isn't kicking East at the last second. Most of LI is going to have to rely on the next 8 hours for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadocane Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Just now, jm1220 said: The pressure falls chart I last saw suggests the low heading off the NC coast, but that would be well east of any modeling. If it heads to the Tidewater instead that would be a good sign and more reasonable given the 500mb charts and vorticity/divergence aloft. The UNISYS pressure change map isn't always the best tool. It tends to over-exaggerate pressure changes in various directions. I would recommend the following link to analyze the surface conditions. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=17&parm=pmsl&underlay=1&source=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 2 minutes ago, nyblizz44 said: The raadr beyond exploded in the last hour, NJ had maybe 40% coverage light to moderate presentation and it looks to be over 80% and all heavy snow. If it comes on like a wall things could get very interesting very fast. All the models ramp up the totals between 6 and 12z before any mixing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 The pressure falls chart I last saw suggests the low heading off the NC coast, but that would be well east of any modeling. If it heads to the Tidewater instead that would be a good sign and more reasonable given the 500mb charts and vorticity/divergence aloft. Like I've said with the 500 mb pattern, I believe this is coming east. Between that and dynamics, I believe surprises are in store. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0291.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 1 minute ago, USCG RS said: Like I've said with the 500 mb pattern, I believe this is coming east. Between that and dynamics, I believe surprises are in store. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk I'm with you, 12", a dollar, and a dream... The HRRR staying colder at this stage makes me think it might be onto something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 7 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Definitely a nice wall of heavy snow developing over S NJ and Philly. A good sign that at least the NAM will be wrong. If it really comes down until 8am (12z when models suggest the coast should start changing over), there could be some significant totals. At this point if I make it to 8" I'll be happy. Central Park I could still see making it to 15" if things break right. Exactly what I'm thinking. And the real time trends so far are positve. If we can snow at 1"+ till 8am right at the coast we see double digets. I still think i make a run at 20 here on 120th and broadway. I'm almost as far north and west as you can get in the city. I have seen several instances here were we stayed snow while the airports changed over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 1 minute ago, USCG RS said: Like I've said with the 500 mb pattern, I believe this is coming east. Between that and dynamics, I believe surprises are in store. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk I'm guessing the seas will be brutal out there and we may even see impressive waves in the bays and sounds....any idea of what kind of high tides we'll be looking at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Just now, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Exactly what I'm thinking. And the real time trends so far are positve. If we can snow at 1"+ till 8am right at the coast we see double digets. I still think i make a run at 20 here on 120th and broadway. I'm almost as far north and west as you can get in the city. I have seen several instances here were we stayed snow while the airports changed over Incredible how much flux and uncertainty there is in the modeling when the event is starting. Hope you do well up there, and back home in Wantagh for both of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 00z GGEM is gorgeous. And it keeps mixing confined to E LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 4 minutes ago, jm1220 said: I'm with you, 12", a dollar, and a dream... The HRRR staying colder at this stage makes me think it might be onto something. Yeah, it's been consistent. Tomorrow is the true test for me. If it nails it, I think the model deserves more credit, especially inside 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 0z CMC has around 20 inches for NYC with more to the west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 24-36" on the GGEM for NW NJ. 12-24" elsewhere except SE Suffolk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Just now, Snow88 said: 0z CMC has around 20 inches for NYC with more to the west Snowmap? Surfacemap? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Just now, Snow88 said: 0z CMC has around 20 inches for NYC with more to the west Close to 3 feet out this way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Just now, Snow88 said: 0z CMC has around 20 inches for NYC with more to the west This may become known as the cut off storm. 20 in CPK, LGA 16, JFK 13, Central LI 11 and eastern 4 with areas 25 miles NW of KNYC between 24-30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: 24-36" on the GGEM for NW NJ. 12-24" elsewhere except SE Suffolk. Sweet mother of God... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: 24-36" on the GGEM for NW NJ. 12-24" elsewhere except SE Suffolk. I wonder if the RGEM outperforms the GGEM at this range. You would think it does - that's what it's for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strgazr27 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 8 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: I'm guessing the seas will be brutal out there and we may even see impressive waves in the bays and sounds....any idea of what kind of high tides we'll be looking at? 15-20' on the ocean, 5-9' on the sound. Tides 3-4' above normal with some locations higher depending on timing and wind direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Just now, strgazr27 said: 15-20' on the ocean, 5-9' on the sound. Tides 3-4' above normal with some locations higher depending on timing and wind direction. 9 foot on the sound sheesh Raritan must be bad too. 15-20 footers, man I'm an old deckhand. That's just evil out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 3 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: 9 foot on the sound sheesh Raritan must be bad too. 15-20 footers, man I'm an old deckhand. That's just evil out there. I work on the Staten Island Ferry. I'll keep you posted tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Just now, seanick said: I work on the Staten Island Ferry. I'll keep you posted tomorrow. Thanks! Used to fish with a clammer who was an oiler on the Ferry back in the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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