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March 13 - 15 Major Winter Storm Potential


NEG NAO

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NAM disagrees with its own parallel model, all other guidance, and initialized the low west of its current position.  Regardless of what TWC's double-secret private model (with no verification scores) says, I'm taking the over on 14" for NYC.

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Just now, mikeysed said:

What do you mean by subsidence?

The rgem is showing a monster band in northwest nj and in north east pa, when you have a mega band when your next to it like we are it sucks all the energy out of the area.  Lot of modeling is showing this lately but take it with a grain of salt at this point it will prob jump around a bit.

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1 minute ago, swamplover56 said:

The rgem is showing a monster band in northwest nj and in north east pa, when you have a mega band when your next to it like we are it sucks all the energy out of the area.  Lot of modeling is showing this lately but take it with a grain of salt at this point it will prob jump around a bit.

Ah ok thanks for the explanation.

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2 minutes ago, swamplover56 said:

The rgem is showing a monster band in northwest nj and in north east pa, when you have a mega band when your next to it like we are it sucks all the energy out of the area.  Lot of modeling is showing this lately but take it with a grain of salt at this point it will prob jump around a bit.

I also heard in valley areas there will be snow shadowing because an east wind downslopes there

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38 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Thank you, this is what's important right now not the stupid Nam. Some people just like to see pretty charts instead of practicing real meteorology. I really really really like the fact that the low is east of what the models have. Great sign. I still think this thing wants to find the largest temp gradient which is out by the Gulf Stream. There is a reason so many historical tracks are out there and so few tucked into ACY

image.thumb.jpeg.91c144ae29ea6f404b5337f34af12cf8.jpeg

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1 minute ago, Paragon said:

I also heard in valley areas there will be snow shadowing because an east wind downslopes there

It's nearly impossible to predict where local subsidence areas will be until the snow is there. Did you head up to the Poconos? That should be an area up for 20"+ I think. 

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Just now, jm1220 said:

It's nearly impossible to predict where local subsidence areas will be until the snow is there. Did you head up to the Poconos? That should be an area up for 20"+ I think. 

yeah I'm up by Bear Creek in the Southern Poconos, just north of Allentown in Carbon County.  Hope I can make it back home tomorrow night because I only got the one day off.

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1 minute ago, mimillman said:

Don, what do you make of the low track? Do you think it's too cold at the surface on the RGEM given a track like that?

The intense dynamics may be leading to that outcome. It seems that the RGEM, 3 km parallel NAM, and at least through the 1z HRRR were in reasonable agreement.

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2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

0z RGEM

rgem_asnow_neus_10.png

I still like 12-18" in NYC just like I did 14 hours ago. I think that you're going to see a very sharp gradient South of Rt 78 in NJ and East of the Queens/Nassau line, though I still think many on LI will see up to a foot if not slightly more. I'm banking on the insane dynamics over powering the warm air aloft.

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4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I still like 12-18" in NYC just like I did 14 hours ago. I think that you're going to see a very sharp gradient South of Rt 78 in NJ and East of the Queens/Nassau line, though I still think many on LI will see up to a foot if not slightly more. I'm banking on the insane dynamics over powering the warm air aloft.

What do you think about the city being split? Looks like models are saying more in the Bronx/UM than Brooklyn/Queens/LM.

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