sferic Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 On 3/14/2017 at 2:26 AM, weatherpruf said: Any thoughts on why they would be so different? Expand On 3/14/2017 at 2:23 AM, JerseyWx said: Yeah I mean we're way less than 12 hours from start time, I think it's a good tool to use at this point. Been consistent tonight, I can tell you that. Expand Actually less than 4 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Just think that if this storm was taking place in 2 days, we would not have had to deal with these nutty NAM operational runs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 On 3/14/2017 at 2:26 AM, weatherpruf said: Any thoughts on why they would be so different? Expand Personally, I don't know. I'm sure someone else can answer that better. What I can tell you is that one model is seeing what the other isn't, or perhaps vice versa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sportybx Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Started in the Bronx. Flurrys and ice it seems like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 On 3/14/2017 at 2:14 AM, BlizzardNYC said: Low is actually 30-50 miles east of most guidance Expand Thank you, this is what's important right now not the stupid Nam. Some people just like to see pretty charts instead of practicing real meteorology. I really really really like the fact that the low is east of what the models have. Great sign. I still think this thing wants to find the largest temp gradient which is out by the Gulf Stream. There is a reason so many historical tracks are out there and so few tucked into ACY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Both the 3km NAM and the HRRR show close to 10" for the NYC area before the mix/changeover Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 On 3/14/2017 at 2:11 AM, Stormlover74 said: This is the first time I can remember a storm 'trending' this much west at the last minute. Or just didnt notice because the low was offshore so we had much more wiggle room Expand yes, this happens a lot- the low is offshore and we get fringed and keeps trending closer to the coast and then we get hit. It's why I never had a lot of hope with this system for the coast because I know from experience you need a storm to be well offshore to leave room for the inevitable move back NW. Starting out with the ideal track isn't usually a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 silly question----could these model runs or all this disagreement with them have something to do with the ocean being way warmer than usual at this time of year > I mean I think its like 10 degrees above normal,,,could be big factor no ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 On 3/14/2017 at 2:32 AM, Brasiluvsnow said: silly question----could these model runs or all this disagreement with them have something to do with the ocean being way warmer than usual at this time of year > I mean I think its like 10 degrees above normal,,,could be big factor no ? Expand Ocean temp is 42 degrees south of Islip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaPo Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 On 3/14/2017 at 2:32 AM, Brasiluvsnow said: silly question----could these model runs or all this disagreement with them have something to do with the ocean being way warmer than usual at this time of year > I mean I think its like 10 degrees above normal,,,could be big factor no ? Expand There's been some evidence that the warmer SSTs of the 2000s has led to more model and weather volatility, but the H7 and H85 don't lie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 On 3/14/2017 at 2:32 AM, WintersGrasp said: Both the 3km NAM and the HRRR show close to 10" for the NYC area before the mix/changeover Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro Expand HRRR gives NYC much more than 10 inches of snow. 01z HRRR snow map shows about 17 inches for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 I hate to break it to you, but the models don't agree with each other - the NAM versions don't even agree - so one model or another is going to bust. Could easily be the NAM or the GFS or any of the other countless models we have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Out of most of the models run 18z and so far at 0z, the 12 km NAM seems to be an outlier on track and outcomes. My guess is that the RGEM will do much to determine whether, in fact, the 12 km NAM is reasonable or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 On 3/14/2017 at 2:28 AM, sferic said: Actually less than 4 hours Expand it already begun. its sleeting here in the Bronx. Mixing with snow at this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Alot of lightning down south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Flurries in Lynbrook/Malverne in SW Nassau County have begun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 On 3/14/2017 at 2:32 AM, Brasiluvsnow said: silly question----could these model runs or all this disagreement with them have something to do with the ocean being way warmer than usual at this time of year > I mean I think its like 10 degrees above normal,,,could be big factor no ? Expand More like 2-3. http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2017/anomw.3.13.2017.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 On 3/14/2017 at 2:32 AM, WintersGrasp said: Both the 3km NAM and the HRRR show close to 10" for the NYC area before the mix/changeover Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro Expand hrrr shows 18 inches not 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
husky0101 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 On 3/14/2017 at 2:39 AM, WeatherFeen2000 said: brrr shows 18 inches not 10 Expand does that snowfall total include sleet as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 On 3/14/2017 at 2:39 AM, WeatherFeen2000 said: brrr shows 18 inches not 10 Expand Crazy there are these kinds of differences when flurries are starting already. Maybe we can split the difference? Thing is, the NAM hasn't been bad this winter, but we also haven't had a deep, Gulf convection driven system yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 The difference between the 12 km NAM and its 3 km parallel version may have a lot to do with its higher resolution, as the HRRR is quite consistent with the 3 km version. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 On 3/14/2017 at 2:37 AM, winterwx21 said: HRRR gives NYC much more than 10 inches of snow. 01z HRRR snow map shows about 17 inches for NYC. Yes, you are right actually. The HRRR doesn't bring mixing/changeover in until after 15 hours and 14-17" for the areaSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 FWIW 12k Nam is clearly delayed with WAA precip. Radar shows its behind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 On 3/14/2017 at 2:38 AM, SRRTA22 said: Alot of lightning down south. Expand This is going to be one beast of a storm. Should be an incredible 12 hours or so west of the city for snow rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 This system is taking in a ton of moisture from the tropics and pushing it right up the coast. Juiced. 700mb moisture is also making its way up the coast. The 700mb LP is developing, as shown by the kink in heights off the NC coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Up to 12 hours, the RGEM seems to show a dry slot or area of much lighter snow for most of NENJ into the city. NW of that, very heavy snow falling Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Rgem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 The surface low would have to travel nearly due north from where it currently is off the coast of South Carolina for the NAM to verify. http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/sfc-zoom.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Astella2 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 On 3/14/2017 at 2:49 AM, WintersGrasp said: Up to 12 hours, the RGEM seems to show a dry slot or area of much lighter snow for most of NENJ into the city. NW of that, very heavy snow falling Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro Expand That would be almost the whole event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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