winterwarlock Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 big slice in totals along 95 corridor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: If this run's right, hopefully there's something left on the ground here after the washout. I have to think it's overdone but the NAM has to be onto something at this point. This is the first time I can remember a storm 'trending' this much west at the last minute. Or just didnt notice because the low was offshore so we had much more wiggle room Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 NDFD 9:00pm EDT update https://digital.weather.gov/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yaz Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 1 minute ago, keno19 said: at this point you can stop watching models and just watch radar trends ...and pressure change maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Ugly run. Rain line makes it into Westchester. Mostly rain event for the I-95. This kind of bust would probably top Jan 2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadocane Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 1 minute ago, sferic said: No concensus this close means radar watching and nowcasting Yep. It was always going to come down to Now Casting. So many variables. Back to the days when models were useless. We're in the Wild West of meteorology. Yippee Ki YaY Model Huggers!!!!! This is just one of those hard forecasts close to an event in which 20 million people have forecasts the can change in a matter of 6 hours. FYI... NAM already looks different from the surface analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 2 minutes ago, mike1984 said: Guys, The storm is just hours away...I'd stop looking at the models now. lol the NAM is a useful model at this point...mesoscale model and its seeing a warm surge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 3 minutes ago, mikem81 said: PARA NAM is better. Looks like Hrrr. Snowing at 13Z still LOL, wtf is going on with the NAM? How can there be discrepancies like these at this range? Maybe the HRRR really is a better way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Lol on the NAM, the low takes a tour of some nice east coast cities. Atlantic City, Boston, and Portland! I've been to each of them and must say, the low has good taste Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 1 minute ago, Rittenhouse said: Ugly run. Rain line makes it into Westchester. Mostly rain event for the I-95. This kind of bust would probably top Jan 2015. I'm almost rooting for it lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Low is actually 30-50 miles east of most guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 1 minute ago, Rittenhouse said: Ugly run. Rain line makes it into Westchester. Mostly rain event for the I-95. This kind of bust would probably top Jan 2015. Had to see it coming when apparently the RPM gave NYC 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: LOL, wtf is going on with the NAM? How can there be discrepancies like these at this range? Maybe the HRRR really is a better way to go. I would have expected the HRRR to somewhat cave by now in the 09-13Z hour if the NAM was right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: This is the first time I can remember a storm 'trending' this much west at the last minute. Or just didnt notice because the low was offshore so we had much more wiggle room if you take this model with what the guy on TWC has been saying, connect the dots here...not saying its going to happen but there has to be concern here...I mean people saying ooh toss the models, thats ridiculous the NAM is a model you can use at this time frame..something is going on...RGEM backed it up earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 The parallel NAM is colder and snowier. It hasn't plowed the low west of ACY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 If this run's right, hopefully there's something left on the ground here after the washout. I have to think it's overdone but the NAM has to be onto something at this point. Brother, I just don't buy this. The model that is. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 3 minutes ago, Rittenhouse said: Ugly run. Rain line makes it into Westchester. Mostly rain event for the I-95. This kind of bust would probably top Jan 2015. Yea...although I don't expect it to be THIS bad...those insisting no way rain gets west of central long island can't be right either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: I would have expected the HRRR to somewhat cave by now in the 09-13Z hour if the NAM was right HRRR is resolute. Run to run consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 I am willing to toss the NAM until it has meaningful support. If the RGEM comes in similarly, the fat lady will start warming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said: The parallel NAM is colder and snowier. It hasn't plowed the low west of ACY. Which will become the regular nam I believe wednesday right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Just now, mimillman said: I am willing to toss the NAM until it has meaningful support. If the RGEM comes in similarly, the fat lady will start warming up. She's in the dressing room already...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 1 minute ago, USCG RS said: Brother, I just don't buy this. The model that is. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk I know the HRRR is unreliable at long range but it's coming in closer now and it's still insisting on a nice event for almost everyone. And it's crazier that the different NAM versions are still disagreeing like this. I have to think maybe the NAM is going too crazy with the convective features and driving the low inland as a result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 3 minutes ago, winterwarlock said: if you take this model with what the guy on TWC has been saying, connect the dots here...not saying its going to happen but there has to be concern here...I mean people saying ooh toss the models, thats ridiculous the NAM is a model you can use at this time frame..something is going on...RGEM backed it up earlier RGEM did not show a scenario like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 There are still a lot of people in this forum who will see a lot of snow. Take the "its over" posts somewhere else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 I'm only paying attention (not much of it) to the 3km NAM, and not because I'm being a weenie. It appears to have the capacity to take VVs and dynamic cooling into account, unlike the 4km NAM and up. Look at how it crashes temps under heavy precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: I know the HRRR is unreliable at long range but it's coming in closer now and it's still insisting on a nice event for almost everyone. And it's crazier that the different NAM versions are still disagreeing like this. I have to think maybe the NAM is going too crazy with the convective features and driving the low inland as a result. Yeah I mean we're way less than 12 hours from start time, I think it's a good tool to use at this point. Been consistent tonight, I can tell you that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 5 minutes ago, jm1220 said: I know the HRRR is unreliable at long range but it's coming in closer now and it's still insisting on a nice event for almost everyone. And it's crazier that the different NAM versions are still disagreeing like this. I have to think maybe the NAM is going too crazy with the convective features and driving the low inland as a result. The hrrr takes the low over VA as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 01z HRRR is again coming in with major accumulations way to the south. It's obvious that the NAM is on crack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Nothing has verified. We have to wait to see if this run is worth the dramas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 2 minutes ago, JerseyWx said: Yeah I mean we're way less than 12 hours from start time, I think it's a good tool to use at this point. Been consistent tonight, I can tell you that. Any thoughts on why they would be so different? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.