ILoveWinter Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 5 minutes ago, mimillman said: I'm surprised the warning text there still says 18-24". Upton has done a good job to start rolling back accumulations and mentioning mixing. And of all media, the Weather Channel also has done a great job in rolling back accumulations. Tom Niziol specifically mentioned live that he sees the higher extent of NYC snow at around 12". I also have to admit I'm surprised how this turned out. I was just sure just 3 days ago this set up was going to favor the Island and SE Mass. They still have NYC at 17" in their "most likely" graph which was updated at 8:19PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Just now, Zelocita Weather said: That's the storm I was trying to compare this too....accum wise Z what did you get in that storm I was in Rahway at the time and got 12" or so but my parents in west orange got nearly 17" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 12-20" I think is a good call for NYC at this point. Pretty much covers all the bases from possible extreme to possible extreme. I could only see all the way down to 8" if the 18z NAM verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 3 minutes ago, mimillman said: I'm surprised the warning text there still says 18-24". Upton has done a good job to start rolling back accumulations and mentioning mixing. And of all media, the Weather Channel also has done a great job in rolling back accumulations. Tom Niziol specifically mentioned live that he sees the higher extent of NYC snow at around 12". I also have to admit I'm surprised how this turned out. I was just sure just 3 days ago this set up was going to favor the Island and SE Mass. The outcomes of these coastal storms by and large over the past couple of years (Juno notwithstanding) has favored a late amped trend. Jonas last year trended north very late, so did the post New Years storm this year. That's why it was easy for me to toss the GFS runs that were well east and the fluke Euro run. But I was hopeful we could keep up the pattern of storms tracking a bit offshore, this one though will break that pattern. The 0z runs making the trend NW last night was the nail in that coffin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 22 minutes ago, RU848789 said: I share your fear, especially given how the NWS was so freakin' slow in admitting that the Jan-2015 "blizzard" wasn't going to verify anywhere in NJ (especially west of the Parkway). There were tons of posts around the start of the storm questioning their forecast and they didn't actually cut back for several hours after it was obvious we were toast. That was just a big mistake and putting too much faith in the euro when it was all alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 2 minutes ago, Drz1111 said: 8" is less than ALL guidance and 14" is less than MOST guidance. It's a bad forecast unsupported by the models. I really don't believe that it's a far stretch from reality. It's a wide range that still highlights the very real potential for 12"+ of snow in the metro. Sure, maybe 8" is on the lower side, but following model guidance verbatim doesn't make a forecast either. Do you really not envision a scenario where the metro receives 8" of snow? Like, not even JFK? The surface low tracks barely off the south shore of Long Island. A 25 mile shift west is just as likely as a 25 mile shift east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Lets see how this works. I will take the MAr '93 total as a base of the range and add 35% as a max for snow projections. LGA: 12.3 - 16.6 NYC: 10.6 - 14.3 EWR: 11.0 - 14.8 TTN: 14.8 - 20.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 1 minute ago, SACRUS said: Lets see how this works. I will take the MAr '93 total as a base of the range and add 35% as a max for snow projections. LGA: 12.3 - 16.6 NYC: 10.6 - 14.3 EWR: 11.0 - 14.8 TTN: 14.8 - 20.6 I can see all of that verifying with the exception of TTN. But otherwise, nice methodology lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 6 minutes ago, swamplover56 said: Z what did you get in that storm I was in Rahway at the time and got 12" or so but my parents in west orange got nearly 17" I can't remember exactly but about the same I think, 12-14" I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Just now, keno19 said: he is talking about the warm air nose reducing the totals as i speak Take it to the banter thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 3 minutes ago, winterwarlock said: what new models? Just a guess but perhaps in house or some univerity as well as the recent 18z suite. Not saying I agree at all - lets see what the 00z suite and the radar shows, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Use the vendor thread about TWC mets or the banter thread please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 3 minutes ago, SACRUS said: Just a guess but perhaps in house or some univerity as well as the recent 18z suite. Not saying I agree at all - lets see what the 00z suite and the radar shows, Sacrus, are you doing the 00z model suite info? If so can you differentiate with prior runs indicating a change from east to west or west to east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Just now, sferic said: Sacrus, are you doing the 00z model suite info? If so can you differentiate with prior runs indicating a change from east to west or west to east? Sure thang Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=dlm1&zoom=&time= CIMMS low level steering guidance 0000 -UTC sub-tropical jet right up the coast- then the big right turn at Long Island thru the benchmark you will never see a better pattern for a winter storm Goliath -imho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 1 minute ago, Doorman said: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=dlm1&zoom=&time= CIMMS low level steering guidance 0000 -UTC sub-tropical jet right up the coast- then the big turn right at Long Island thru the benchmark you will never see a better pattern for a winter storm Goliath -imho That's a beautiful image right there. Glad to see you back, man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 SREFs upped the ante in terms of precip yet again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Just now, brooklynwx99 said: SREFs upped the ante in terms of precip yet again. How was the LP track?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 GEM-LAM snow accums. The GEM-LAM is pretty deadly inside of 24h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 17 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said: They still have NYC at 17" in their "most likely" graph which was updated at 8:19PM True. That is down from earlier today, albeit marginally. But take a look at their "expect at least this much" graphic. Major differences there, highlighting the immense uncertainty. Islip at <1"? Now that's extreme, and I do think that even the 6" shown for NYC is too low. Look, I know I'm slightly more pessimistic than most on the board, but I try to be balanced and I do think carefully about these decisions. I sincerely think 8-14" is a good call here given the positioning of the low at the surface and more importantly, between 850-700mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: GEM-LAM snow accums. The GEM-LAM is pretty deadly inside of 24h. It sort of blew the last event although the ground temps likely played a role on that. Also notice that both RGEM versions keep showing that screw zone in CNJ between what may be two mega bands Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadocane Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 33 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: 2014 was a great storm here honestly Yes. I had to take a second to sip on some cerveza and take a trip down memory lane with this storm. The dynamics were awesome with this storm. Temps were marginal at the beginning. http://www.nycareaweather.com/archives/february-13-2014/ I wanted to use it as an example today to demonstrate the type of Monster we may be dealing with tomorrow. There are so many parallels between Feb. 2014 and tomorrows Blizzarder. AW Members in Long Island and the boroughs of NYC thought they were going to switch over to rain for many hours, but a lot of areas on the Island hung on longer than expected as a result of the dynamics. There was an ECMWF/NAM camp of models depicting the storm further west, and I think a few models had the storm slicing through LI and tracking across Eastern CT right before the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 33 minutes ago, mimillman said: I'm surprised the warning text there still says 18-24". Upton has done a good job to start rolling back accumulations and mentioning mixing. And of all media, the Weather Channel also has done a great job in rolling back accumulations. Tom Niziol specifically mentioned live that he sees the higher extent of NYC snow at around 12". I also have to admit I'm surprised how this turned out. I was just sure just 3 days ago this set up was going to favor the Island and SE Mass. Yep, saw Niziol making the comments about NYC getting less than a foot before changing to sleet then rain (not just sleet) - had thought the worst case was sleet; rain would suck on top of the snow. Anyway, certainly not the best of trends today/tonight. Who knows, maybe we'll get lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 10 minutes ago, mikem81 said: How was the LP track?? Impressive to see that 2 inch tongue shoot up the Hudson River valley all the way up to KALB on the latest SREFs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 14 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: SREFs upped the ante in terms of precip yet again. It seems they've been steadily increasing like you said. 2"+ QPF for the entire metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadocane Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 2 minutes ago, Doorman said: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=19 current MSLP RAP 6hr forcast February 13-14, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Hey guys, Looks great down there. Final Call on my blog for any interested: http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2017/03/blizzard-of-march-14-2017-nuts-and.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 SREFs look very nice. Plumes show around 13" EWR/JFK..8" or so LGA, and 20-30" far inland throughout much of the northeast. Incredible Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 HRRR 0z run has snow the whole entire run for NYC. It shows 18 inches for Central Park by 18z tomorrow, and still snowing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 3 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: HRRR 0z run has snow the whole entire run for NYC. It shows 18 inches for Central Park by 18z tomorrow Some sleet hours 17 and 18 but not much is failing then... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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