MJO812 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 On 3/13/2017 at 7:38 PM, weatherlogix said: The plumes for JFK are still under 10" Expand Went up from 9z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 On 3/13/2017 at 7:28 PM, ILoveWinter said: Just copied this from the NE thread, 10"/hour rate in northwestern CT per the 4K NAM! That's nuts. Expand The NAM is really focused on northern NJ and the lower Hudson Valley. It changes between 4k, 3k, etc, but it seems that's the area it's targeting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Euro ensembles still look great 12+looks likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Eps mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 On 3/13/2017 at 7:40 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Expand Some are like the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 On 3/13/2017 at 7:38 PM, weatherlogix said: The plumes for JFK are still under 10" Expand Yea. But I posted to 2 warmest frames and it's definitely colder fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 There are a few members skewing the mean on the sref Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 On 3/13/2017 at 7:37 PM, Rjay said: Here are the 2 warmest frames Expand Thanks. What are temps like from 850-600? Unfortunately, the warm layer is in the snow growth region... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Low is literally in the same exact spot at hour 12 vs the 12z NAM. 1 MB stronger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 The 12z high res RGEM is still 11 or so for JFK and 13-15 at Lga Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 HRRR looks quite stunning for 8AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 On 3/13/2017 at 7:50 PM, Snow88 said: There are a few members skewing the mean on the sref Expand Yup, or else it would be lower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 On 3/13/2017 at 7:10 PM, Zelocita Weather said: Never have seen Blizzard warnings so expansive and inland Expand 1993 easily. We were 200+ miles inland and had a Blizzard Warning (in VA). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 On 3/13/2017 at 7:53 PM, SnowGoose69 said: The 12z high res RGEM is still 11 or so for JFK and 13-15 at Lga Expand How bout for nnj and lhv. Thanks goose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 This storm reminds me of feb 2010, in terms of snowfall gradients between the 5 boroughs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 On 3/13/2017 at 7:57 PM, NJwx85 said: Expand Now THOSE panels show southeasterlies. That's a Sleety Gonzalez solution. Ageostrophic NE winds under screaming SE winds. Might even FZRN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 HRRR has a much slower progression of the warmth than the 12k NAM and I am going to favor that model in this time frame. And it actually surges the warmth north until about 11Z, then it starts to sink back south. Makes it almost to 195. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 those maps make it very close for some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West of Town Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 On 3/13/2017 at 8:01 PM, friedmators said: HRRR has a much slower progression of the warmth than the 12k NAM and I am going to favor that model in this time frame. And it actually surges the warmth north until about 11Z, then it starts to sink back south. Makes it almost to 195. Expand Does the sleet make it to MMU? It looks like it does, but your comment makes it seem like it doesn't. Thanks for the clarification! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 On 3/13/2017 at 8:01 PM, friedmators said: HRRR has a much slower progression of the warmth than the 12k NAM and I am going to favor that model in this time frame. Expand The HRRR is not designed to handle situations like a rain snow line. It's main use for tomorrow would be where the greatest banding will occur. And it's very unreliable beyond 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 On 3/13/2017 at 8:03 PM, North and West of Town said: Does the sleet make it to MMU? It looks like it does, but your comment makes it seem like it doesn't. Thanks for the clarification! Expand Morristown? Not even close. At that time frame. HRRR only goes to 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Seems like a warmer run, looks like rain even for some parts of the city during a few of those panels. Not sure if that was the case during 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West of Town Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 On 3/13/2017 at 8:05 PM, friedmators said: Morristown? Not even close. At that time frame. HRRR only goes to 12Z. Expand Thanks! It looked like pink on the radar over me briefly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Yeah the NAM would be very warm, a lot of mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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