Stormlover74 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 On 3/13/2017 at 2:27 PM, Brian5671 said: could be some issues with Sleet but Wow at the 4K NAM Expand Matches para pretty well. LI is the tough spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/841293159044919296/photo/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 i wouldn't hyper analyze the nam. the big takeaway is that the furthest west model came east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 On 3/13/2017 at 2:29 PM, NJwx85 said: https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/841293159044919296/photo/1 Expand That's scary dude... 60-70 into the Jersey Shore, Raritan Bay.. very very damaging.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 On 3/13/2017 at 2:31 PM, forkyfork said: i wouldn't hyper analyze the nam. the big takeaway is that the furthest west model came east Expand Well said. In addition, looks like 850's oly go above 32 for an hour or so then crash again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Well this storm may not dump as much snow as last year's blizzard, this one looks to put on more of a show for the city. Heavy wet snow with 50mph wind gusts, likely accompanied by thunder and lightning, will make it look downright apocalyptic outside at the height of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 also 925 temps are much colder than the 850's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 On 3/13/2017 at 1:20 PM, snywx said: I don't think I've ever seen 6-7" an hr rates in my life.. Most of the guidance the past 24 hrs has been showing this for the HV. Gonna be wild! Expand Would be awesome to get some thundersnow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 On 3/13/2017 at 2:36 PM, IntenseBlizzard2014 said: A lot of that is sleet for the Tri-State Area. :/ Expand We have to watch the line tomorrow to see where it sets up during the height. Any wobble will have a big influence on this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 On 3/13/2017 at 2:36 PM, mikem81 said: Well said. In addition, looks like 850's oly go above 32 for an hour or so then crash again... Expand The thermal profiles to me seem off. This model takes 850s above freezing into Sussex County? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Check out the death band that works its way north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 On 3/13/2017 at 2:38 PM, jm1220 said: The thermal profiles to me seem off. This model takes 850s above freezing into Sussex County? Expand Well it is the NAM. It's very possible it has over amped this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 On 3/13/2017 at 2:39 PM, Blizzard-on-GFS said: Well it is the NAM. It's very possible it has over amped this storm. Expand Not when 850s are below freezing all the way down to AC. As forky said don't overanalyze Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 NAM still brings 6-7" an hr snowfall rates into the HV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 On 3/13/2017 at 2:37 PM, mikem81 said: also 925 temps are much colder than the 850's Expand The winds are from a northerly direction at the surface-the warm air might be coming much further up, at 800mb for example. That's why we need to pay attention to the mid level low tracks. But again, this is the NAM and it did take a good step. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 12z 3/13 QPF range NYC area / Snowfall SREF: 1.50 - 1.75 / 10 - 18" (mixing) NAM: 2.00 - 2.15 / 12 - 18" (mixing) PNAM: 2.15 - 2.30 : 14 - 20" (less mixing) GFS: GEFS: RHEM: GGEM: GGEM-ENS: UKMET: ECM: ECM-EPS: JMA: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 12z NAM @ 27 hrs.. Looks like everyone from HPN southeastward taint for a couple hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 On 3/13/2017 at 2:43 PM, snywx said: NAM still brings 6-7" an hr snowfall rates into the HV. Expand That's that death band that Nibor just posted above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 On black and white maps almost appears the RGEM is west again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 rgem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 On 3/13/2017 at 2:50 PM, snywx said: 12z NAM @ 27 hrs.. Looks like everyone from HPN southeastward taint for a couple hours. Expand Not really....sub 0 is down to Seaside/almost ACY, it just has one band moving through with verbatim sleet in there (intense storms sometimes can wrap in warmer air in certain bands), but overall good depcition for snow. In 1996, I was sleeting for 1-2 hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 On 3/13/2017 at 2:55 PM, F5TornadoF5 said: rgem Expand The RGEM is now in it's good range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 On 3/13/2017 at 2:55 PM, SnowGoose69 said: On black and white maps almost appears the RGEM is west again Expand It shows a lot of snow for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 On 3/13/2017 at 2:56 PM, Zelocita Weather said: Not really....sub 0 is down to Seaside/almost ACY, it just has one band moving through with verbatim sleet in there (intense storms sometimes can wrap in warmer air in certain bands), but overall good depcition for snow. In 1996, I was sleeting for 1-2 hours... Expand While I despise sleet because it makes shoveling suck it does a heckuva job keeping the snowpack intact for longer. Being as far east as I am I kind of accepted a long time ago that I will mix even during the best storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 On 3/13/2017 at 2:56 PM, WEATHERBUFF said: The RGEM is now in it's good range. Expand Not good if it has the LP so far west in SNJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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