SnowGoose69 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 On 3/13/2017 at 1:20 PM, snywx said: I don't think I've ever seen 6-7" an hr rates in my life.. Most of the guidance the past 24 hrs has been showing this for the HV. Gonna be wild! Expand Parts of the Mohawk Valley snowed 6-7 inches per hour in the Christmas 02 storm and Keene NH I think had 7-8 an hour in March 2001 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 On 3/13/2017 at 1:20 PM, snywx said: I don't think I've ever seen 6-7" an hr rates in my life.. Most of the guidance the past 24 hrs has been showing this for the HV. Gonna be wild! Expand I've seen rates like that,it's FKNA awesome. When I lived in Tahoe (a loooong time ago) we had 10"/hr for 4 hrs once, I watched it go from light in the house to dark as the banks outside the windows went from sill level to over the top. When you have to dig your way out of the house you gain a new respect for heavy snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 On 3/13/2017 at 1:20 PM, Zelocita Weather said: Can you post like 5 hours earlier.... Expand Heaviest I found for your area.. Lots of mixing around you as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 On 3/13/2017 at 1:22 PM, SnowGoose69 said: Parts of the Mohawk Valley snowed 6-7 inches per hour in the Christmas 02 storm and Keene NH I think had 7-8 an hour in March 2001 Expand I got over 20" here from the xmas storm in 2002. I don't ever remember rates that high! Thats some LES or Lake Tahoe stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 On 3/13/2017 at 1:27 PM, snywx said: I got over 20" here from the xmas storm in 2002. I don't ever remember rates that high! Thats some LES or Lake Tahoe stuff Expand I think those rates were confined to a mega band between UCA and ALB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 On 3/13/2017 at 1:26 PM, snywx said: Heaviest I found for your area.. Lots of mixing around you as well Expand Thanks, Ill take 4"/hr. ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 The 12z NAM is running. It will be interesting to see the 12z NAM's solution. The 6z parallel run was consistent with the 0z run (as did the RGEM). The 0z and 6z versions of the 12 km NAM diverged with the latter producing a lot more mixing/liquid precipitation in parts of the greater NYC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Through 15 hours it appears the NAM may be coming east this run but we will see what it does once the system starts cranking after 18-21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 On 3/13/2017 at 1:19 PM, NJwx85 said: Here's my final call. 12-18" in NYC proper and immediate surrounding areas. Remember that strong winds, possible mixing and approaching dry slot will limit totals somewhat. Still a historic storm for the coast in March. 10-14" for Eastern Nassau and Western Suffolk County. 8-12" for the rest of Long Island with possibly 10-14" in the usual North shore spots. I like a general 12-18" for most of Central NJ, north of 195 till about Rt. 78. North of 78 and West of the GSP in NJ I like a general 18-24" with a few localized 24-30" amounts in the elevated areas of NW NJ and then up into Orange County. Otherwise North of 84 I like a general 18-24". For Northeast PA I like 12-18" with a few isolated areas >18" possible in the higher terrain. For the area from about Philly to Trenton I like 8-12" with isolated areas of 12-18" North of Philly in the hill country. Overall a historic storm for the time of year. Very strong winds will cause coastal flooding, possible power outages and white out conditions for a period tomorrow morning into early afternoon. Comes in as a wall of snow around 2-3AM. Height of the storm is from about 6AM to 2PM. Should be all gone by about 6-7PM except for a few lingering snow showers. Expand Yanks I agree with all this good call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Looks a bit east on surface so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 On 3/13/2017 at 1:52 PM, SnowGoose69 said: Through 15 hours it appears the NAM may be coming east this run but we will see what it does once the system starts cranking after 18-21 Expand at 20 its slightly east & 3mb stronger, still on shore over ne nc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 This run looks like it will be better than the 6z one for areas on parts of Long Island and NYC itself. The NW suburbs should do very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Heights look lower on coast as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 The NAM is a bit faster this run compared to the 06z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 It's maybe 15 miles further East at 08z Tuesday. And it's 996mb vs 999mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 The 850 low through 12z is easily 40-50 miles further east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Mixing into Brooklyn, Queens, SI, Monmouth and LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 at 25 just off the delmarva, stronger and slightly east. Mixing issues for the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 12z vs 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 On 3/13/2017 at 2:01 PM, SnowGoose69 said: The 850 low through 12z is easily 40-50 miles further east Expand That could make a world of difference as to whether the City and nearby areas see a foot or more or the 4.5" amount shown on the 6z run. I favor the larger amount. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus®ion=neus&pkg=ref_frzn&runtime=2017031312&fh=23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Why would NAM track further east on 12z introduce mixing? Isn't further east good for NYC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 On 3/13/2017 at 1:56 PM, swamplover56 said: Yanks I agree with all this good call Expand I agree, pretty solid as it looks right now. im still feeling the big time power outage issue for the coast. So even though amounts will be less with heavy wet snow and any sleet the cake effect mixed with gusts over 60 is going To bring down trees and power lines. So even though there may be less snow overall the net effect is worse at the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 32k NAM at 15Z continues to be nearly 50 miles further east with the 850 low. I don't know if I see any major mixing into NYC if that verifies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Yeah, NAM upper and surface depictions certainly seem further east than prior runs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 On 3/13/2017 at 2:05 PM, sferic said: Why would NAM track further east on 12z introduce mixing? Isn't further east good for NYC? Expand It is good, but IMO the more important question is where the 700 and 850 lows track. If those lurch east, the mix line lurches east with them. So far the NAM seems to be bringing them east a decent bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 The NAM also moved towards the RGEM and Euro idea of a better front end from 07-13Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 LOL, the NAM is maybe, and I mean maybe 20 miles further East with the SLP track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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