KeithB Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 On 3/13/2017 at 3:47 AM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: widespread 15-20" on GFS, Long Island hits 30 in some spots Expand 2 more hours until the 00z EURO run Billy! I know it's late...but you can do it!! It went great the last 2 nights. You did PBP for us, we all had our popcorn ready, etc.....we cannot risk changing anything!! Can you make it?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 On 3/13/2017 at 3:49 AM, keno19 said: 30 inches in nassau hhaha im still sticking with 15in Expand It's a glitch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 On 3/13/2017 at 3:50 AM, KeithB said: 2 more hours until the 00z EURO run Billy! I know it's late...but you can do it!! It went great the last 2 nights. You did PBP for us, we all had our popcorn ready, etc.....we cannot risk changing anything!! Can you make it?? Expand Idk bro, I'll try my best lol...2am after last nights gonna be rough... haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keno19 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 I agree. 15 to 20 with isolated spots of 24in. I do believe NOAA jumped the gun too early with the blizzard watch. Craig Allen a family friend of ours even agrees. Kind of shocked Gary Conte allowed that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 On 3/13/2017 at 3:49 AM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: I also think GFS still isn't there on the intensity and size of the initial overrunning, or the NW band that other models have, I'd still take a blend of RGEM/euro... everyone's locked for 12-20+ with no mixing imo... I don't see it happening Expand Yeah I don't think its done correcting west. Even with this correction its still the eastern outlier. Lets see what the ukie and cmc have to say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 On 3/13/2017 at 3:51 AM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Idk bro, I'll try my best lol...2am after last nights gonna be rough... haha Expand Haha...I know. I've been sleep deprived all week! I will need a vacation after this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 On 3/13/2017 at 3:52 AM, keno19 said: I agree. 15 to 20 with isolated spots of 24in. I do believe NOAA jumped the gun too early with the blizzard watch. Craig Allen a family friend of ours even agrees. Kind of shocked Gary Conte allowed that. Expand Blizzard conditions have nothing to do with the amount of snow anyone receives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 On 3/13/2017 at 3:49 AM, nyblizz44 said: UPTON, will stick with the EURO / GFS/UKIE mix here and and go Blizzard Warning at 4 am for 15-20 ( Yes I think they will up the accumilations and may even say lolis to 24 ) Expand Channel 2 had a general 1 to 2 feet with "locally 30" on it's 11 pm forecast map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 On 3/13/2017 at 3:52 AM, keno19 said: I agree. 15 to 20 with isolated spots of 24in. I do believe NOAA jumped the gun too early with the blizzard watch. Craig Allen a family friend of ours even agrees. Kind of shocked Gary Conte allowed that. Expand You do know it's just a watch and not a warning? And that it has nothing to do with accumulations? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 On 3/13/2017 at 3:53 AM, Rjay said: Blizzard conditions have nothing to do with the amount of snow anyone receives. Expand Excatly Wind > Snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keno19 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 i n my professional opinion i would have went with the winter storm watch and dissect the models more before updating to a blizzard watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 On 3/13/2017 at 3:53 AM, Rjay said: Blizzard conditions have nothing to do with the amount of snow anyone receives. Expand People forget that it's a wind thing. They have plenty of blizzard warnings out in the plains for a few inches. And this storm if going to have epic wind. With the incredible dynamics we should be able to mix down the LLJ fairly easily. I can't stress this enough. The wind is what is going to make this one special and also incredibly difficult to measure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 3/13 00z Guidance Summary QPF range NYC area / Snow SREF: 1.50 - 1.65 / 12 - 18" NAM : 1.50 - 1.75 / 15 - 20" P NAM: 1.50 - 1.75 :/ 15 - 20" GFS: 1.50 - 1.75 / 12 - 18" GEFS: RGEM: 1.70 / 12- 18" GGEM: GGEM-ENS: UKMET: ECM: ECM-EPS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Cmc a beauty, details on color maps later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keno19 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 other camps would have put a winter storm watch and a high wind watch before jumping . thats my opinion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 On 3/13/2017 at 3:53 AM, snywx said: Yeah I don't think its done correcting west. Even with this correction its still the eastern outlier. Lets see what the ukie and cmc have to sayI'll wait to see the ukie /euro, but I think the rgem and nam also correct a bit East. We're not quite in their wheel house yet. Just imhoSent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 With a question of low track in proximity to the coast, blizzard condition confidence is not quite where it needs to be for an upgrade to a warning at this time, assuming more warming aloft occurs. As you head away from the coast, higher confidence in winter storm warnings, thus the upgrade for those areas. In general, a foot or more of snow accum is likely, high end up around 20 inches, with the low end under a foot right along the coast of LI. Much depends on that aforementioned track. Strongest winds near the coast, with 40 kt in the mixed layer, which assuming snow as the ptype produces blizzard conditions. Hopefully this will be resolved with a clearer picture tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 On 3/13/2017 at 3:58 AM, F5TornadoF5 said: Cmc a beauty, details on color maps later Expand WOW CMC is a monster hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 On 3/13/2017 at 3:58 AM, keno19 said: other camps would have put a winter storm watch and a high wind watch before jumping . thats my opinion Expand 16-20 not enough snow lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 On 3/13/2017 at 3:59 AM, Morris said: With a question of low track in proximity to the coast, blizzard condition confidence is not quite where it needs to be for an upgrade to a warning at this time, assuming more warming aloft occurs. As you head away from the coast, higher confidence in winter storm warnings, thus the upgrade for those areas. In general, a foot or more of snow accum is likely, high end up around 20 inches, with the low end under a foot right along the coast of LI. Much depends on that aforementioned track. Strongest winds near the coast, with 40 kt in the mixed layer, which assuming snow as the ptype produces blizzard conditions. Hopefully this will be resolved with a clearer picture tonight. Expand Is this Mt. Holly's or Upton's discussion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 On 3/13/2017 at 3:59 AM, Morris said: With a question of low track in proximity to the coast, blizzard condition confidence is not quite where it needs to be for an upgrade to a warning at this time, assuming more warming aloft occurs. As you head away from the coast, higher confidence in winter storm warnings, thus the upgrade for those areas. In general, a foot or more of snow accum is likely, high end up around 20 inches, with the low end under a foot right along the coast of LI. Much depends on that aforementioned track. Strongest winds near the coast, with 40 kt in the mixed layer, which assuming snow as the ptype produces blizzard conditions. Hopefully this will be resolved with a clearer picture tonight. Expand Isn't that an hours old discussion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
husky0101 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 On 3/13/2017 at 4:04 AM, HailMan06 said: Is this Mt. Holly's or Upton's discussion? Expand that is upton's last one was updated 10:32 pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 On 3/13/2017 at 3:58 AM, keno19 said: other camps would have put a winter storm watch and a high wind watch before jumping . thats my opinion Expand You can have a blizzard warning for snow and sustained winds greater than 30MPH for 3 or more hours. It has nothing to do with heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 On 3/13/2017 at 4:04 AM, HailMan06 said: Is this Mt. Holly's or Upton's discussion?Upton Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 The Canadian is 18-24 inches , pure snow bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 On 3/13/2017 at 4:02 AM, Snow88 said: WOW CMC is a monster hit Expand Looks warm but hard to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 On 3/13/2017 at 4:06 AM, Neblizzard said: The Canadian is 18-24 inches , pure snow bomb. Expand Hmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 CMC is east at 42.. Crush job for 99.9% of the people in this sub forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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