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March 13 - 15 Major Winter Storm Potential

NEG NAO

By NEG NAO,
in New York City Metro

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Paragon

Paragon

Posted
Posted
  On 3/12/2017 at 11:10 PM, Tibet said:

Off topic, so this will be my only reply on the subject... but that isn't as crazy as it sounds.

 

Quantum computers hold a lot of promise when it comes to weather forecasting... you see entities like IBM speaking up recently saying to the effect of "We think we have this down and you guys need to start developing software for these new machines...".

 

Wouldn't be all that surprised to see some private entities taking advantage of a blossoming technology like this before government entities like NOAA can.

 

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Yes I agree I'm actually quite excited about quantum computing and AI- we're closer than we think- Google actually has AI technology very close to fruition (saw it on 60 Min) but they wouldn't elaborate about details.  Watson is also taking strides in this direction.

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Paragon

Paragon

Posted
Posted
  On 3/12/2017 at 11:16 PM, NJwx85 said:

Save a horse, ride the Euro. Add in the UKMET and RGEM and confidence is high. I'll go with a JP from TTN to SWF of 18"+ with 8-12" in the city due to possible mixing, strong winds and possible dry slotting.

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Do you think there's a chance Philadelphia could see more than NYC does? I actually saw that from some of the local outlets.

 

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Paragon

Paragon

Posted
Posted
  On 3/12/2017 at 11:50 PM, JetsPens87 said:

Interesting thought

A lot of the models it seem have a secondary max in SEPA/PHL area.

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I'm looking at a late season storm (from a long time ago granted) that had that kind of pattern- April 1915.  PHL received 19 inches and NYC had 11.  It's the April storm of record at both locations.

Lots of stuff on this storm...I'd like to know what April snowstorm occurred in Philly 17 years prior to this one that was bigger than this since I can't find any.

http://wintercenter.homestead.com/photo1915.html

Philadelphia. Accumulations included: Atlantic City: 6.0"; Bridgeport: 6.4"; Cutchogue, NY: 10.0"; New York City: 10.2"; Newark, NJ: 15.8"; and, Philadelphia: 19.4" 
 
Source: Philadelphia Evening Public Ledger, April 3, 1915
 
News account from Philadelphia: "On the eve of Easter, Philadelphia is in the grip of the worst April snowstorm in years. As the fall of snow continued this afternoon [April 3] reports of damage to wires and the blocking of transportation came from all parts of the city and nearby points."
 
Source: "Heaviest April Snowstorm in 17 Years Grips City," Philadelphia Evening Public Ledger, April 3, 1915.
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NJwx85

NJwx85

Posted
Posted
  On 3/12/2017 at 11:22 PM, NortheastPAWx said:

So you're going with the globals yet saying NYC gets accumulations shown by I think only the NAM and GFS...

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I think the Euro track is correct and that areas NW of the city will JP. Bernie Rayno mentioned in his 6:00 update that even though the Euro isn't showing much mixing for the coast, he believes that with that track that mixing is likely. Also remember that strong winds will hurt ratios.

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donsutherland1

donsutherland1

Posted
Posted
  On 3/12/2017 at 11:52 PM, Paragon said:

I'm looking at a late season storm (from a long time ago granted) that had that kind of pattern- April 1915.  PHL received 19 inches and NYC had 11.  It's the April storm of record at both locations.

Lots of stuff on this storm...I'd like to know what April snowstorm occurred in Philly 17 years prior to this one that was bigger than this since I can't find any.

http://wintercenter.homestead.com/photo1915.html

Philadelphia. Accumulations included: Atlantic City: 6.0"; Bridgeport: 6.4"; Cutchogue, NY: 10.0"; New York City: 10.2"; Newark, NJ: 15.8"; and, Philadelphia: 19.4" 
 
Source: Philadelphia Evening Public Ledger, April 3, 1915
 
News account from Philadelphia: "On the eve of Easter, Philadelphia is in the grip of the worst April snowstorm in years. As the fall of snow continued this afternoon [April 3] reports of damage to wires and the blocking of transportation came from all parts of the city and nearby points."
 
Source: "Heaviest April Snowstorm in 17 Years Grips City," Philadelphia Evening Public Ledger, April 3, 1915.
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The newspaper article was written fairly early in the snowstorm, so the title of the article is somewhat misleading. It turned out to be the biggest April snowstorm there on record.

FWIW, the March 1993 storm brought 12.0" to PHL and 10.6" to NYC.

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NJwx85

NJwx85

Posted
Posted
  On 3/12/2017 at 11:32 PM, Snow88 said:

8-12? That seems too low based off the models

12-18 is a good call

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I'm really worried about some taint, although minimal and the strong winds hurting ratios. I also worry about that mega band forecasted to be just NW of 95 on most guidance causing a bit of subsidence along with possible dry slotting as the 700mb low makes a close approach to LI. 8-12 is conservative. It's not an outrageous call at this point. If things continue to trend more favorable tonight and tomorrow id increase the odds of 12+ in the city.

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JetsPens87

JetsPens87

Posted
Posted
  On 3/12/2017 at 11:55 PM, NJwx85 said:

I think the Euro track is correct and that areas NW of the city will JP. Bernie Rayno mentioned in his 6:00 update that even though the Euro isn't showing much mixing for the coast, he believes that with that track that mixing is likely. Also remember that strong winds will hurt ratios.

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I've always liked NNJ/SENY/Greater New England area for the greatest accumulations and have not seen much reason to change that thinking.

Very rough thoughts

CNJ: 8-14

NNJ:12-18

SENY:12-18

CT/MA/RI: 16-24

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Paragon

Paragon

Posted
Posted
  On 3/12/2017 at 11:57 PM, donsutherland1 said:

The newspaper article was written fairly early in the snowstorm, so the title of the article is somewhat misleading. It turned out to be the biggest April snowstorm there on record.

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Don, I'm finding so much info on this storm, it's amazing for a storm from over 100 years ago (aside for the 1888 Blizzard of course.)

https://books.google.com/books?id=eeM_AAAAQBAJ&pg=PA325&lpg=PA325&dq=april+1915+snowstorm+philadelphia+and+new+york+city&source=bl&ots=5SAMy9aRez&sig=BFmKgLo4XPlG8y3Iq4qj1avnQGg&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwiYsunmlNLSAhXF7YMKHSFYDQ4Q6AEIUjAL#v=onepage&q=april 1915 snowstorm philadelphia and new york city&f=false

From the Famous Kocin-Uccellini Book it mentioned that 21" fell across South Jersey, cannot imagine such an event in April, even though we had a cold Blizzard in April in 1982.

 

Screenshot - 3_12_2017 , 8_11_40 PM.png

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RU848789

RU848789

Posted
Posted
  On 3/12/2017 at 11:33 PM, USCG RS said:


GFS funding comes from the US government. They need to have a reason to keep it. (of course this is very synical, but there's truth to it I guarantee)

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk
 

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  On 3/12/2017 at 11:35 PM, donsutherland1 said:

The GFS has sufficient skill that it should be given some consideration. I still suspect that its precipitation shield is insufficiently expansive. The compromise solution taken by WPC would mitigate that issue. We'll see what the 0z shows, as the 18z may have improved somewhat at the mid-and-upper levels.

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Interesting "man never landed on the moon" take on the GFS, lol.  I get it, but man, that would be just dumb if the NWS pros didn't actually believe the GFS was worth using.  Perhaps more likely that they pay lip service to it, to keep management off their backs (although I imagine a supervisor could actually check the analysis/calcs).  

Don - good points - will be interesting to see the GFS evolution.  The thing that really interests me the most is verification scores when it counts, i.e., on various kinds of snowfall scenarios (clippers, SWFEs, Miller A's and B's, etc.) and maybe rainfall scenarios, too.  Who cares if a model has the best accuracy predicting sunny and warm if it's horrible predicting the really important events.  Does anyone out there track that?  

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Blizzardo

Blizzardo

Posted
Posted

Boxing Day storm was the last storm that had serious winds. That I recall? Am I missing one? Not sure what they were but it was ripping good. 

 

Last year's 30 incher was nothing.. just long duration snowfall.. that storm isn't even in my rankings of greats.. it was mostly gone 2-3 days afterwards 

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Nibor

Nibor

Posted
Posted
  On 3/13/2017 at 12:12 AM, JerseyWx said:

Wow, how does this forecast compare to last years blizzard in terms of wind?  I remember we had decent wind here, but can't remember what was actually forecasted.

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Winds were strong here for last years blizzard, not quite as strong as forecasted. Boxing Day still is the most extreme blizzard I've experienced. The wind was incredible.

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Paragon

Paragon

Posted
Posted
  On 3/13/2017 at 12:17 AM, RU848789 said:

 

 

Interesting "man never landed on the moon" take on the GFS, lol.  I get it, but man, that would be just dumb if the NWS pros didn't actually believe the GFS was worth using.  Perhaps more likely that they pay lip service to it, to keep management off their backs (although I imagine a supervisor could actually check the analysis/calcs).  

Don - good points - will be interesting to see the GFS evolution.  The thing that really interests me the most is verification scores when it counts, i.e., on various kinds of snowfall scenarios (clippers, SWFEs, Miller A's and B's, etc.) and maybe rainfall scenarios, too.  Who cares if a model has the best accuracy predicting sunny and warm if it's horrible predicting the really important events.  Does anyone out there track that?  

Expand  

Also some of these models are better at predicting weather over some parts of the country or world than they are others.  We have some complexity in our region of the world because of the interactions of several different types of airmasses and things like the Gulf Stream.  I'm sure there is something similar in Japan.

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Paragon

Paragon

Posted
Posted
  On 3/13/2017 at 12:17 AM, Blizzardo said:

Boxing Day storm was the last storm that had serious winds. Not sure what they were but it was ripping good. 

 

Last year's 30 incher was nothing.. just long duration snowfall.. that storm isn't even in my rankings of greats.. it was mostly gone 2-3 days afterwards 

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I mean it wasn't nothing, it certainly clogged up the streets of Queens for a week and the LE was 3" so it was a really heavy snow.  But it didn't have the winds of the Boxing Day Blizzard (which gusted close to 70mph and was down to 960mb if I remember correctly.)

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donsutherland1

donsutherland1

Posted
Posted
  On 3/13/2017 at 12:15 AM, Paragon said:

Don, I'm finding so much info on this storm, it's amazing for a storm from over 100 years ago (aside for the 1888 Blizzard of course.)

https://books.google.com/books?id=eeM_AAAAQBAJ&pg=PA325&lpg=PA325&dq=april+1915+snowstorm+philadelphia+and+new+york+city&source=bl&ots=5SAMy9aRez&sig=BFmKgLo4XPlG8y3Iq4qj1avnQGg&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwiYsunmlNLSAhXF7YMKHSFYDQ4Q6AEIUjAL#v=onepage&q=april 1915 snowstorm philadelphia and new york city&f=false

From the Famous Kocin-Uccellini Book it mentioned that 21" fell across South Jersey, cannot imagine such an event in April, even though we had a cold Blizzard in April in 1982.

 

Screenshot - 3_12_2017 , 8_11_40 PM.png

Expand  

It was an amazing storm. I believe this storm has the potential to be the first March storm since the 1993 storm to bring 10" or more to Philadelphia, NYC, and Boston.

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