weatherpruf Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 On 3/12/2017 at 7:07 PM, bluewave said: All that is necessary for moderate flooding is a 2.5 foot surge. A surge around 3.5 feet would get to the edge of major. Expand Anyone remember th Dec 92 storm? Just some backend snows in the NYC metro but historic flooding; was a big deal but has been forgotten due to March 93.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 On 3/12/2017 at 6:56 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Honestly... not sure if I've seen a better H5 set-up... for an EC storm ever Expand I've definitely seen better modeled upper level setups. But they don't always produce, for any number of reasons. Sometimes they have less moisture to work with, less cold, or occur during a month with less baroclinicity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 How close to rain does NYC get on euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Sref has well over 1.25 qpf for the area Eps is a monster. 15+ for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 On 3/12/2017 at 7:23 PM, eduggs said: I've definitely seen better modeled upper level setups. But they don't always produce, for any number of reasons. Sometimes they have less moisture to work with, less cold, or occur during a month with less baroclinicity. Expand Let's just hope this puppy pulls together and burries everyone ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 On 3/12/2017 at 7:22 PM, weatherpruf said: Anyone remember th Dec 92 storm? Just some backend snows in the NYC metro but historic flooding; was a big deal but has been forgotten due to March 93.... Expand it also brought heavy snow to sussex new jersey i think... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 On 3/12/2017 at 7:24 PM, Snow88 said: Sref has well over 1.25 qpf for the area Eps is a monster. 15+ for everyone. Expand .15 or 1.5 ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 On 3/12/2017 at 7:25 PM, nycwinter said: it also brought heavy snow to sussex new jersey i think... Expand Wan an interior snowstorm IIRC, as most were back then...we had heavy winds and rain down here, sick flooding, and backend snows of an inch or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 15z SREF precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 On 3/12/2017 at 7:17 PM, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Ummm wow. We could easily see major flooding then with a euro situation. This is what is now legit worrying me about this. Mans to answer the questions about he heavy wet snow and power outages yes. If we get on the wrong side of the coastal front for a bit and temps spike into the mid 30s your going to cake snow onto trees and power lines. I would be seriously worried about this central Suffolk east Expand Check out the size of the wind field on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 On 3/12/2017 at 7:29 PM, bluewave said: Check out the size of the wind field on this. Expand That's just insane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 FWIW Warnings all starting to fly across our western areas, eastern and central pa all in warnings. When do you think upton does? within the next hour or wait till 4am? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 On 3/12/2017 at 7:29 PM, Neblizzard said: That's just insane Expand Almost as big a wind field as Sandy but not as strong. Look for water to pile into the bays and tidal rivers with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 This will (prob) be the last time ensembles (somewhat) matter with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 On 3/12/2017 at 7:29 PM, Neblizzard said: That's just insane Expand I really don't know what to make of these frequent megastorms. Prior to 96, I remember only April 82, Feb 78, and Feb 83 as being anywhere close to these kinds of storms. Just about every major storm in 2014, which were all 6-12 jobs, would have been huge news in the 80's and most of the 90's. And coming after this mild weather? All bets are off IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 worm moon tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 On 3/12/2017 at 7:34 PM, weatherpruf said: I really don't know what to make of these frequent megastorms. Prior to 96, I remember only April 82, Feb 78, and Feb 83 as being anywhere close to these kinds of storms. Just about every major storm in 2014, which were all 6-12 jobs, would have been huge news in the 80's and most of the 90's. And coming after this mild weather? All bets are off IMO. Expand Yup, I'm in your boat.. these youngins just don't realize..6-12 now is run of the mill... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 On 3/12/2017 at 7:34 PM, Rjay said: This will (prob) be the last time ensembles (somewhat) matter with this storm. Expand The mean has a big W lean too. Those E outliers will probably be gone by the 00z EPS, but the EPS won't really matter 36 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 On 3/12/2017 at 7:34 PM, Rjay said: This will (prob) be the last time ensembles (somewhat) matter with this storm. Expand Looks like it takes a nice east turn south of LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 On 3/12/2017 at 7:34 PM, Rjay said: This will (prob) be the last time ensembles (somewhat) matter with this storm. Expand Is that because the ensembles are clustering as the time horizon approaches and the ensembles have a lower resolution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 The eps probability maps are INSANE... 80- 90%+ chance of 12+ for this entire sub lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 On 3/12/2017 at 7:22 PM, weatherpruf said: Anyone remember th Dec 92 storm? Just some backend snows in the NYC metro but historic flooding; was a big deal but has been forgotten due to March 93.... Expand That one was much worse than Mar 93 because it lasted for 3-5 days. Never saw a storm with that much impact until Sandy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 In their afternoon discussion, Mt. Holly still unsure about my area saying we could see 6 or more inches but are worried about mixing issues and subsidence here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 I am surprised Mt.Holly didn't go with a Blizzard Warning for my area. I think they are going to upgrade later or in the morning considering how the models are looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 On 3/12/2017 at 7:54 PM, Rtd208 said: I am surprised Mt.Holly didn't go with a Blizzard Warning for my area. I think they are going to upgrade my area later or in the morning considering how the models are looking. Expand We still have over 24 hours, a whole day of runs... no need yet, I think warnings this early as oppose to tomorrow AM is a bit bullish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 On 3/12/2017 at 6:51 PM, Paragon said: Thanks, so Tuesday morning is the peak tide for the entire month? Expand Have to look at the numbers and moon phase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 The State of Emergencies will likely start being declared this evening or tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 On 3/12/2017 at 7:54 PM, Rtd208 said: I am surprised Mt.Holly didn't go with a Blizzard Warning for my area. I think they are going to upgrade later or in the morning considering how the models are looking. Expand Usually they do 12-18 hours for blizzard warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Wow at the EPS clustered just offshore, really bad for coastal flooding and high winds with a storm so intense. I hope things shift slightly further east not because of the risk of precip issues but because we'd be dealing with major coastal flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 RPM is well west... I hate this model anyway lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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