jm1220 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 10:05 PM, weatherpruf said: Do you think these sensitive models have difficulty with these unusual storms? or is that an understatement? Expand It's a highly complex and convoluted setup with a large degree of change in the outcome with minor shifts. Models aren't designed to get all of these correct, that's why they're considered forecast tools only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 10:08 PM, jm1220 said: It's a highly complex and convoluted setup with a large degree of change in the outcome with minor shifts. Models aren't designed to get all of these correct, that's why they're considered forecast tools only. Expand I remember Dr Sobel saying, in snowstorms, no matter what happens, someone will be disappointed, either the snow weenies or those who hate the stuff.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 10:08 PM, jm1220 said: It's a highly complex and convoluted setup with a large degree of change in the outcome with minor shifts. Models aren't designed to get all of these correct, that's why they're considered forecast tools only. Expand In addition you have to look at the actual pattern and not just the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Still no fly through data for 18z FYI... 00z I'm assuming should have it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 The swings are getting more pronounced in the last 18 hrs than the last 4 days in the individual models. The euro moved more in the last 2 runs than it has since Thursday and same with the gfs. No way can you discount these solutions IMO. Time me to cancel? No. We've seen wobbles in modeling but we have also seen whiffs correctly modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 18 z gfs total storm qpf. lost the wow storm factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 There are still plenty of models with huge totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 18Z GFS has a 985 low inside the benchmark. I'd think the precipitation shield would be further northwest... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 10:18 PM, Animal said: 18 z gfs total storm qpf. lost the wow storm factor. Expand Still a good sized storm, especially for March. Wouldn't take a major west swing to get back into the huge totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 10:23 PM, mattinpa said: Still a good sized storm, especially for March. Wouldn't take a major west swing to get back into the huge totals. Expand yea..looks like 6-10 inches etc. more in the best banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 I am dreading some of the over reactions later if some of the 00z model runs are bad. Ugh Maybe it won't be an over reaction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 10:21 PM, Snow88 said: There are still plenty of models with huge totals Expand What models...most seem to be cutting back from the 12-20 totals being provided yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 10:27 PM, Animal said: What models...most seem to be cutting back from the 12-20 totals being provided yesterday. Expand Yeah not sure what everyone is seeing. 20"-30" looking less and less likely. only a couple models have that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 In these set ups, best banding tends to set up just northwest of where it is currently modeled. For the 18z GFS, I like from about Monmouth county through the city and central Long Island, eastern Connecticut and through to Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 10:12 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Still no fly through data for 18z FYI... 00z I'm assuming should have it Expand I don't think the off runs use new data anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 10:27 PM, Animal said: What models...most seem to be cutting back from the 12-20 totals being provided yesterday. Expand Such storms with 20+ used to be extremely rare....they have become more common but still do not represent the norm. 10 inches would be a good storm for March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 10:27 PM, Rtd208 said: I am dreading some of the over reactions later if some of the 00z model runs are bad. Ugh Maybe it won't be an over reaction Expand There's always waffling around like this until the very end. People shouldn't overreact. The storm we had on 1/6 was well southeast on most models until 48 hours out. Storms at the end this year have ended up on the northwest end of guidance, so I wouldn't be freaking out. And the GFS/Euro are still very respectable storms near the city/coast. 8-12" in those areas is nothing to sneeze at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 10:26 PM, bluewave said: Anything over 6" in NYC past March 10th is a wow storm since we still haven't had one yet during the 2000's. http://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/sixplussnow.pdf Expand hmmm and yet we got 8" on the south shore of Nassau County in April 2003 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 10:27 PM, Animal said: What models...most seem to be cutting back from the 12-20 totals being provided yesterday. Expand Um no Ukie, EPS,Navgem,RPM,GEFS,CMC all have 12+ for some areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 10:29 PM, nesussxwx said: Yeah not sure what everyone is seeing. 20"-30" looking less and less likely. only a couple models have that much. Expand 20-30" was never likely at all for a storm booking NE like this one. At best it looks like a beefier version of the 2/9 storm. The 12-18" Upton has is probably what we see with the ramped up models. 20"+ is unlikely from this IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 People need to relax. This might be a hiccup with the models. They tend to do that close to an event. Lets see what happens with the 0z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 10:40 PM, jm1220 said: 20-30" was never likely at all for a storm booking NE like this one. At best it looks like a beefier version of the 2/9 storm. The 12-18" Upton has is probably what we see with the ramped up models. 20"+ is unlikely from this IMO. Expand As long as we hold onto 1.25-1.5 precip totals we'll be fine. 20" in March would be really difficult to get in this era Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
larrye Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 10:40 PM, Snow88 said: Um no Ukie, EPS,Navgem,RPM,GEFS,CMC all have 12+ for some areas. Expand Which of these would you consider a reliable model that forecasters use to base a forecast on ... if you're going to putthe Euro, GFS, and NAM aside? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West of Town Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 9:58 PM, weatherpruf said: They are in a tough spot RU, public safety is involved. Expand Exactly; glad you said this. We love these storms, but we as fans forget there's a vast majority of population that's not watching or reading each and every model run. It's in the NWS' charter to help protect life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 10:42 PM, larrye said: Which of these would you consider a reliable model that forecasters use to base a forecast on ... if you're going to putthe Euro, GFS, and NAM aside? Expand EPS, GEFS and UKIE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Bernie rayno thinks NYC points north and east are a lock...doesn't like models showing such a a lack of precip on the western shield...these dynamics should be pouring moisture in to eveyon from NYC, NEPA, NNJ, and Hudson valley... however the heavier precip is extremely confined Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Wow 16" Doesn't Suffolk County have more of a SNE kind of climate, Chris? The high totals even made it to NW Suffolk- Huntington 16" wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 10:50 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Bernie rayno thinks NYC points north and east are a lock...doesn't like models showing such a a lack of precip on the western shield...these dynamics should be pouring moisture in to eveyon from NYC, NEPA, NNJ, and Hudson valley... however the heavier precip is extremely confined Expand I think dynamics are key to expanding heavier precipitation north and west. This doesn't sound like a very compact system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 10:47 PM, Snow88 said: EPS, GEFS and UKIEHow was the 12z UK for NNJ/NYC? I took a quick look and it seemed similar to the Euro track, but tough to tell with the hours during meat of the system not shownSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 10:58 PM, WintersGrasp said: How was the 12z UK for NNJ/NYC? I took a quick look and it seemed similar to the Euro track, but tough to tell with the hours during meat of the system not shown Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro Expand The two ENS and UK OP he mentioned were all really good for the area with the storm tracking across the elbow of the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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