weatherpruf Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 4:26 AM, Paragon said: Problem is during that event that line was up in NE, pretty much everyone in our subforum (except for SW CT) had double digit snowfall in that one. Of course it's possible, anything is possible- but is this likely- probably not. Even if I was up in the Poconos right now, I'd still go with the Euro/EPS over any other model. Any betting man would. Expand No....Middlesex and parts of Union were much lower, we never went over 10 in any storm that winter. We officially had 8 in Woodbridge. But it was still a good storm. I'm ok if someone else has more. These set ups are always dicey for my area, always on the rain snow line, always on the cutoff line..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 4:35 AM, jm1220 said: The GGEM is just wretched this year. No clue why or how it just crapped the bed, in recent winters it's been good. Expand To be honest, the GFS isn't much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 4:35 AM, winterwx21 said: GGEM is 10 to 15 inches almost the whole tri-state area. Hardly awful. Expand I'm talking about the model itself bro, not the 00z run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 4:31 AM, Paragon said: I'm surprised people care this much about any model right now outside of the EPS- and even that is a stretch. This is still like 4 days away. Expand Excellent point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 4:30 AM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: I'm surprised there isn't more talk on how AWFUL the GGEM is lol Expand We actually deform our way to 1.2" of liquid on the CMC. Nice jump from the worst solution for the interior to the second-best without any real change in the slp track... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Anyone have a better look at ukmet, other than upside down face version Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 4:36 AM, mranger48 said: I noticed qpf cut back significantly in Indiana and Ohio from 18z to 00z gfs. Is that due to the primary on the 00z actually being weaker? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Expand Probably. They would rely on the primary for their snow. We are relying on the coastal development from the southern feature interacting with the northern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 4:36 AM, weatherpruf said: No....Middlesex and parts of Union were much lower, we never went over 10 in any storm that winter. We officially had 8 in Woodbridge. But it was still a good storm. I'm ok if someone else has more. These set ups are always dicey for my area, always on the rain snow line, always on the cutoff line..... Expand Wow, you were really in a snow hole that winter, even though you are south of us. I'm thinking of places like Toms River that got a ton of snow that winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 4:36 AM, Paragon said: To be honest, the GFS isn't much better. Expand Thinking back to the Feb 9th storm, even the GFS had a better idea than the Canadian. But I guess this run it's shifting toward the consensus, so maybe it's getting a clue. I'm going by what I'm reading here for the model outputs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 I don't know if I recall any instances where the GFS was more west than the UKMET/Euro at Day 4 proceeding a major storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 4:31 AM, NutleyBlizzard said: UKIE moving east is a big time red flag with the GFS. Expand How much did it move east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 4:39 AM, SnowGoose69 said: I don't know if I recall any instances where the GFS was more west than the UKMET/Euro at Day 4 proceeding a major storm. Expand What do YOU think it means? I mean we're all just conjecturing here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 4:36 AM, weatherpruf said: No....Middlesex and parts of Union were much lower, we never went over 10 in any storm that winter. We officially had 8 in Woodbridge. But it was still a good storm. I'm ok if someone else has more. These set ups are always dicey for my area, always on the rain snow line, always on the cutoff line..... Expand I was in Rahway for that storm we got 13" before the changeover. My parents in west orange got 19" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 11, 2017 Author Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 4:39 AM, SnowGoose69 said: I don't know if I recall any instances where the GFS was more west than the UKMET/Euro at Day 4 proceeding a major storm. Expand when it was west - what ended up verifying usually ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 4:37 AM, Paragon said: Wow, you were really in a snow hole that winter, even though you are south of us. I'm thinking of places like Toms River that got a ton of snow that winter. Expand too far north for the mid atlantic storms, too far south for 2/26/10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 4:41 AM, NEG NAO said: when it was west - what ended up verifying usually ? Expand yeah usually it has a SE bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 4:41 AM, weatherpruf said: too far north for the mid atlantic storms, too far south for 2/26/10 Expand what was your seasonal total that winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 4:41 AM, weatherpruf said: too far north for the mid atlantic storms, too far south for 2/26/10 Expand I got 17 on 2/10 and 12 on 2/26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 The GFS solution would be something that almost never happens here. Snow to rain to snow. There have only been a few storms where that has occurred, it takes a very specific setup to get that to occur Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Ukie is near BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 4:40 AM, swamplover56 said: I was in Rahway for that storm we got 13" before the changeover. My parents in west orange got 19" Expand I have heard that but the official measurement was 8 in Woodbridge; but in 2006 Rahway, which is right next to me, measured 28 and we had 18....not sure why but Rahway gets more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Maybe I'm wrong but ukmet, clearly went east... but certainly not a benchmark track... it goes from Virginia inlets to Delmarva to just south of cape cod...that's west of the benchmark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 4:45 AM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Maybe I'm wrong but ukmet, clearly went east... but certainly not a benchmark track... it goes from Virginia inlets to Delmarva to just south of cape cod...that's west of the benchmark Expand It's a perfect track for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 11, 2017 Author Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 4:45 AM, weatherpruf said: I have heard that but the official measurement was 8 in Woodbridge; but in 2006 Rahway, which is right next to me, measured 28 and we had 18....not sure why but Rahway gets more Expand because of the intense banding - that difference wasn't caused by a rain/snow line like the GFS is showing this go around.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 4:46 AM, ag3 said: It's a perfect track for everyone. Expand Agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 4:42 AM, Paragon said: what was your seasonal total that winter Expand can't remember, but nothing like Philly. I usually go with New Brunswick's tally but that winter had insane cutoffs, with New Brunswick getting a decent thump on 2/6 but just east getting less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 The GFS even if it were 75 miles more east might screw western areas like 2/8/13. The low does not truly get organized til its a bit late. The GFS taken literally has more issues than just ptype Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Looks a little east of the benchmark... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 4:47 AM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Agreed Expand Pretty much anything halfway decent would be a big storm for March; I can't remember anything bigger than 93 and I'm 54, the only other big storm came in April 82. Hell, let's go for that again we are way overdue....lots of you were even born yet. Can't describe how surreal that 82 storm was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 4:46 AM, ag3 said: It's a perfect track for everyone. Expand Does anyone have snow maps for ukie? I can imagine widespread 18-24+ amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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