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March 13 - 15 Major Winter Storm Potential


NEG NAO

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1 minute ago, forkyfork said:

i think the gfs is completely out to lunch. the southern wave is so quick to be absorbed by the PV lobe 

Ok, be good enough to explain why that doesnt make physical sense. I know the combination of the Euro, EPS and Ukie is very solid so I know the GFS is being stubborn in its lack of comprehension of the info but why wouldnt the southern wave be absorbed?

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1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

3/4/2001 is the #7 analog. Honestly, the setup at H5 isn't far off.

030509.png
 
gfs_z500_vort_us_16.png

That just gave me chills but I am not seeing the sling shot effect of the Miller B at play, which is what destroyed what was supposed to be an HECS for NY back then

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2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

3/4/2001 is the #7 analog. Honestly, the setup at H5 isn't far off.

030509.png
 
gfs_z500_vort_us_16.png

::Closes eyes and covers ears:: :weep:

In all seriousness, there are some similarities there.  I'm cautiously optimistic about this one, but I stress "cautiously."  Model trends are in our favor, but they've fooled us before and, given this happy medium we must reach between a miss and a full phase, I think the chances for disappointment are higher than the excitement in here lets on.

All in all, we should be thrilled that we have such a beastly threat to track this late into the season, but we should keep our expectations tempered appropriately.

 

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