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March med-long range disco 3


WxUSAF

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18z GEFS bad solutions:

e9:  secondary makes it to OH and coastal takes over at our latitude. Runs just inland on the coast.

E11: Weird evolution.  Great Lakes low transfers to the coast (but W/Thur timeframe).  

E16: Overamped, 990 at mouth of Chesapeake.  Rain to backend snow

E18: Strung out low

E19: Late transfer and runs just inland on the coast.

An improvement since 6z when I last looked in detail...less bad solutions in the mix.  Still a mix of solutions there but it seems the way we could get screwed is an overamped solution as others have alluded to.  

A fantastic GEFS run if you ask me.

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1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Nope. My expectation for this event is snow to rain to snow here. Could even trend worse. This is why I would have preferred to have a stronger sw for this weekend, when the block and the vortex under it is ideal. Would not have been a huge storm, but we all could have a had cold powder. Probably too much confluence/too flat/too fast a flow to support a healthy sw though. This set up has much more potential for a big snowstorm, but its living on the edge, as the h5 pattern breaks down on the NA side leading in. Your area has a good chance of a favorable outcome, but places along I-95 and E its touch and go. Sure is fun to track though, regardless of the ultimate outcome.

Looking at the GEFS members I now have full-blown p-type fears for here in Easton.  I'd be interested to see the cobb output for down here from the op - even with the bananas totals the snow map put out I'm betting there's a mess of sleet counted as snow in there.

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4 minutes ago, B-Paq said:

Looking at the GEFS members I now have full-blown p-type fears for here in Easton.  I'd be interested to see the cobb output for down here from the op - even with the bananas totals the snow map put out I'm betting there's a mess of sleet counted as snow in there.

Maybe but that's the risk we run with all coastals, especially in march.  Also, track of course is far from locked in.  Could get a CMC like track and everyone wins or this thing could keep amping and we all see a washout.  I'm just happy to be in the game still. 

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4 minutes ago, Wxhoov said:

I wouldnt wish e16 on dc folks but wholy smokes that gives me about 3ft up here in new freedom lol

30  at HGR with nothing at DCA, one member did that yesterday.  Interesting but very unlikely.

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4 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

Maybe but that's the risk we run with all coastals, especially in march.  Also, track of course is far from locked in.  Could get a CMC like track and everyone wins or this thing could keep amping and we all see a washout.  I'm just happy to be in the game still. 

Without a doubt.  I've watched my western shore brethren revel in their snow while I hopelessly wait for a changeover many times :(  I've saved that CMC run from earlier - it was a thing of utter beauty.

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58 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I don't have time right now but maybe someone (or you) will post where those indexes were on storm dates. I'll bet some are similar. The blocking and 50/50 have to break down first or it won't amplify. But I have already admitted the threat here is west and that's because it MAY be coming slightly late in the window. But not every storm is perfect. It's not a bad setup. With any luck at all we will do good. 

Psu... you start the thread. I trust you. 

Anyways you deserve it man.

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1 minute ago, snjókoma said:

No, you're several miles north and about a mile east of baltimore... looks like 15-20" to me. Of course completely irrelevant and just a fun map to look at. 

Yeah now that i looked alittle closer i see what your saying i think i was looking more in the hanover area haha

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

I don't have time right now but maybe someone (or you) will post where those indexes were on storm dates. I'll bet some are similar. The blocking and 50/50 have to break down first or it won't amplify. But I have already admitted the threat here is west and that's because it MAY be coming slightly late in the window. But not every storm is perfect. It's not a bad setup. With any luck at all we will do good. 

Hold on... didnt they name the 2010 boxing debacle aftet you? maybe you should start the thread.. ;)

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3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I came across this when looking up the biggest DC snow events in March. This was as of 2013. Did St. Paddy Day Magic make the list? 

snow_benchmarks_march.gif

 

I actually needed to look up some dumb storm called Snowquester. Yikes. 

giphy.gif

Yeah, it was 7.2" at DCA i think or maybe 7.7. So number 8 or 9. Got 8.5" here. Amazing storm.

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4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I came across this when looking up the biggest DC snow events in March. This was as of 2013. Did St. Paddy Day Magic make the list? 

snow_benchmarks_march.gif

 

I actually needed to look up some dumb storm called Snowquester. Yikes. 

giphy.gif

7.2" March 16-17 that year, so yeah.

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