Deck Pic Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 8-16"...lock it up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 LP moved westward this run with mixed precip moving northerly in NOVA. Hope that is the extent of the westward push. Plus if anyone can answer this, why is the LP in the near Midwest NOT interacting with the coastal low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Is the ULL getting a little wave going to Ice the cake? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Snowblowers works Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Just now, Deck Pic said: 8-16"...lock it up Yeah, I'm good with this and would take this as is now. No more gambling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 The last global model we need on-board is the para. It has been so behind the curve! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 That run is maybe close to throwing around the B word for places close to the bay and then further northeast.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Just now, Deck Pic said: I'm worried about OTS....there is nothing I'm not worried about lol Its all on the table. I am leaning towards too amped, too soon though, given the advertised h5 look up top. Lots of potential here though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 4 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: I have hourly temps and DCA never goes above 32 the entire time I don't think the sounding goes above -2 at any point. This is a good run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 minute ago, Deck Pic said: 8-16"...lock it up Yup, cashing out... for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 minute ago, midatlanticweather said: Is the ULL getting a little wave going to Ice the cake? probably mood flakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Thump but man too close for comfort. The metro areas and points north and west will be jumping for joy at this run (and deservedly so) but this isn't looking too good for me or the lower eastern shore IMHO. Reminds me a lot of February 2014. I really don't care though, just saying... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 5 minutes ago, Amped said: Where's the wonky comments on the 108 slp map? Move that whole tandem 100 miles south and we get hammered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Just now, PrinceFrederickWx said: The metro areas and points north and west will be jumping for joy at this run (and deservedly so) but this isn't looking too good for me or the lower eastern shore IMHO. Reminds me a lot of February 2014. I really don't care though, just saying... Ha, not all points north and west. But it's pointless to talk specifics. I seriously doubt we've seen the final solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Move that whole tandem 100 miles south and we get hammered. 100 might be too far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Just now, PrinceFrederickWx said: The metro areas and points north and west will be jumping for joy at this run (and deservedly so) but this isn't looking too good for me or the lower eastern shore IMHO. Reminds me a lot of February 2014. I really don't care though, just saying... Devil is in the details. Lots to be worked out still. I would say that you and I should expect some mix or a change to rain at some point though. Such is life in March and with a deep coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Have we had a bomb before with the nao and ao looking like dirt? eta: pna rages Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Updated thoughts? I'm in no way giving you a hard time I was just kidding the other day. Hope you didn't take my contrarian stance as disrespectful. But what's your current thoughts and do you agree that over amped and a west trend is our biggest threat at this point? I think it's the best look we have had all season. I have been skeptical with any system this winter as the amplification and pattern support has been out west all year. It never quite came together for us and I could just see Sunday's system failing before it even entered the medium range. This pattern however looks much more favorable IF it's being modeled correctly. The sharp amplified ridge out west and strong jet energy diving south will likely force some serious energy into that trough with a vigorous low developing. That's certain with what I'm seeing. What concerns me is the timing of the trough, when it goes negative tilt and whether not it can capture at our latitude. Also...how much cold air is still around...if track is hugging the coast, could see warmer air come right in and make a mess of P-types. It has some similarities to Feb 2014 except in March. Hope the brunt falls overnight as sampled. Legitimate threat and kudos to you for pointing this out. I respect your view and opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 I'd like to cash out, but Philly and even extreme NE MD is basically doubling our total. When I start seeing 2 feet+ just northeast of us, I have to hope for more southern solution plus capture and stall. At the same time, it skipping over us or coming too far west and getting almost or absolutely nothing is still very much in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 15 minutes ago, RidingTheModelWithMostSnow said: At this point... I do not think we could get any better. I would hit "sold" and take this no question but it could get better. Even this run doesn't max out the potential. The phase isn't clean. The primary does a fujiwara and the coastal races north and outruns the upper energy which actually goes south of us this run giving areas in sw va some decent snows. If this all came together in a clean phase it could be a monster. On the other hand that could be dangerous because if it phases too soon and pulls the whole thing west we go to rain so I would hold here. But there is more upside potential then then even this run if it phases perfectly. This did not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Move that whole tandem 100 miles south and we get hammered. Or just stall it right there as it bombs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 This looks like the anti-Bob Chill rule...vort and associated features are looking BETTER as we get closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 minute ago, ers-wxman1 said: I think it's the best look we have had all season. I have been skeptical with any system this winter as the amplification and pattern support has been out west all year. It never quite came together for us and I could just see Sunday's system failing before it even entered the medium range. This pattern however looks much more favorable IF it's being modeled correctly. The sharp amplified ridge out west and strong jet energy diving south will likely force some serious energy into that trough with a vigorous low developing. That's certain with what I'm seeing. What concerns me is the timing of the trough, when it goes negative tilt and whether not it can capture at our latitude. Also...how much cold air is still around...if track is hugging the coast, could see warmer air come right in and make a mess of P-types. It has some similarities to Feb 2014 except in March. Hope the brunt falls overnight as sampled. Legitimate threat and kudos to you for pointing this out. I respect your view and opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 HUGE THUMBS UP TO PSU! He never gave up.. and now.. he has reason to celebrate! AT least on models! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 So is this a good assumption? Sunday storm that slide of the south east coast, regenerates into the storm that comes up the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Just now, BTRWx said: Have we had a bomb before with the nao and ao looking like dirt? Of course. We often get big events as NA blocking rapidly breaks down. We also have an amplified longwave pattern, and its March. Boom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 11 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: lol Its all on the table. I am leaning towards too amped, too soon though, given the advertised h5 look up top. Lots of potential here though. Yea this h5 doesn't say OTS to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 GFS looks good imby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 8 minutes ago, RidingTheModelWithMostSnow said: So is this a good assumption? Sunday storm that slide of the south east coast, regenerates into the storm that comes up the coast? Its remnants get captured by strong energy that dives south-southeast southwest from Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 We need the 50/50 to be moving out and the blocking to break. That's what allows this to amplify. The 50/50 and blocking is about getting the antecedent conditions needed. But yes it's a delicate balance. Those break too fast and we rain. Too slow and suppression. The Sunday vort was a little too soon. Hopefully the Tuesday one is just right and not 12 hours too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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