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March med-long range disco 3

WxUSAF

By WxUSAF,
in Mid Atlantic

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eurojosh

eurojosh

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, osfan24 said:

What are your thoughts on the potential of this for us if things trend better? Any decent snowstorm would be great, but I'm really about going big or going home. I'm talking top 10-15 snowstorm in Baltimore history. Can we hit 20? 2 feet?

I'm no expert (obv) but unless we saw significant movement towards a more Miller-A type solution, I can't imagine an upside above 18 inches for the Baltimore region...  And that's optimistic.

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted

Yesterday some were throwing around March 1956 as an analog I think.  It's sort of close in some ways at H5 but on the surface its not even close, and even at H5 there are some significant differences. 

At the surface March 56 was just a clipper coming down, all northern stream, that had a high in the Gulf actually.  It simply dug in then bombed as it hit the coast.  This system definitely has some STJ component to it.  How they phase and all that jazz is to be determined but way different setup at the surface then 56.

At H5 its closer, but even there I would take the setup I see on all the guidance leading into this storm over March 56.  The trough axis is more positively tilted initially and digs in further east diving in from the NNW instead of the NW.  It then cuts off and goes nuts but too far northeast for our purposes.  The H5 energy is coming in further west and with more of a neutral tilt then in 56.  56 was mostly a 3-6" event across our area with 6-10 across the extreme north and northeast areas so it wasn't nothing but the potential here is for more.  Of course there is bigger bust potential too with the intricate details of a phase job going on where 56 was a simpler system.  Very energetic vort along a juiced up thermal boundary that bombed out as hit the coast. 

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BristowWx

BristowWx

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, eurojosh said:

I'm no expert (obv) but unless we saw significant movement towards a more Miller-A type solution, I can't imagine an upside above 18 inches for the Baltimore region...  And that's optimistic.

I think you would need full capture to slow it down.  6 inches would be fine

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

What are your thoughts on the potential of this for us if things trend better? Any decent snowstorm would be great, but I'm really about going big or going home. I'm talking top 10-15 snowstorm in Baltimore history. Can we hit 20? 2 feet?

Baltimore has only had one storm even close to that level this late in the year and that was in the 1940s and it took a ridiculous convective band training along a norlun trough.  So while anything is possible historical evidence would suggest setting a more realistic goal here. 

Even up here I am trying not to set myself up for a letdown and be realistic in my expectations.  And I have quite a set of examples up here of March storms that do get into that level, but even here they are the exception not the rule.  A 6" event in DC and Baltimore is pretty significant after March 10th.  There aren't that many.  8" very good and 10" puts you in the very very rare historical category for the time of year.  I get go big but your definition of big is a little unrealistic if its 20".  I am setting my bar up here at 10" as a celebration worthy win and 6" as be happy and totally acceptable.  Considering climo setting the bar for DC and Baltimore higher then that is setting yourself up to be disappointed. 

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osfan24

osfan24

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Baltimore has only had one storm even close to that level this late in the year and that was in the 1940s and it took a ridiculous convective band training along a norlun trough.  So while anything is possible historical evidence would suggest setting a more realistic goal here. 

Even up here I am trying not to set myself up for a letdown and be realistic in my expectations.  And I have quite a set of examples up here of March storms that do get into that level, but even here they are the exception not the rule.  A 6" event in DC and Baltimore is pretty significant after March 10th.  There aren't that many.  8" very good and 10" puts you in the very very rare historical category for the time of year.  I get go big but your definition of big is a little unrealistic if its 20".  I am setting my bar up here at 10" as a celebration worthy win and 6" as be happy and totally acceptable.  Considering climo setting the bar for DC and Baltimore higher then that is setting yourself up to be disappointed. 

Yeah clearly anything in the double digits would be a historic snowstorm for our region for the month of March. I don't believe we've ever had a double digit snowstorm in March since 93, and I don't remember that one. It's not late March though and this seems like a rather unique setup with so much potential. Wishful thinking perhaps, or maybe I'm blinded by the pretty maps showing very high accumulations possible just northeast of us.

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Since you don't use it much (at least not in these threads)...I couldn't quite tell, dude!! Your posts usually aren't throw-away lines, but analytical ones, lol

I know, I am not trying to give you a hard time.  It was my bad.  I think I was just throwing some shade because I remember last week I took a tiny bit of poking from a couple people (usual suspects) for looking past Sunday and talking about the threats this week when Sunday looked so good. 

Also I meant to post in banter and messed up, I apologize and mods should move all this crap there since we actually have a real threat to discuss here now.  My bad again. 

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Yeah clearly anything in the double digits would be a historic snowstorm for our region for the month of March. I don't believe we've ever had a double digit snowstorm in March since 93, and I don't remember that one. It's not late March though and this seems like a rather unique setup with so much potential. Wishful thinking perhaps, or maybe I'm blinded by the pretty maps showing very high accumulations possible just northeast of us.

Weather "normal" is just a bunch of abnormal put together.  Of course any huge snowstorm is not likely at any given moment.  March is even less so.  But there have been some, and we only have a history going back a little over 100 years, before that I am sure there were many others.  It can happen.  So its fine to dream but expectations should be realistic or you are let down more often then not. 

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eurojosh

eurojosh

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Weather "normal" is just a bunch of abnormal put together.  Of course any huge snowstorm is not likely at any given moment.  March is even less so.  But there have been some, and we only have a history going back a little over 100 years, before that I am sure there were many others.  It can happen.  So its fine to dream but expectations should be realistic or you are let down more often then not. 

This is going in my sig line...

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BristowWx

BristowWx

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, eurojosh said:

Unusual in Jan/Feb, let alone March, to see 100% (-OBX) snow coverage in North Carolina and ~75% in South Carolina....

 

namconus_asnow_seus_28.png

If we get ours and they keep theirs there would be snowcover from SC to Maine in March.  That has to be rare

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BTRWx

BTRWx

Posted
Posted
40 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I know, I am not trying to give you a hard time.  It was my bad.  I think I was just throwing some shade because I remember last week I took a tiny bit of poking from a couple people (usual suspects) for looking past Sunday and talking about the threats this week when Sunday looked so good. 

Also I meant to post in banter and messed up, I apologize and mods should move all this crap there since we actually have a real threat to discuss here now.  My bad again. 

You deserve to name this thing! 

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted

I wonder if the analogs when we were looking for Sunday were cross pollinated with Tuesday. Some of them make more sense. If you combine both 108 and 120 some nice storms show up. Number 2 is march 1993 lol. Jan 2011, pd2, 2/14/14, 2/12/06, 3/15/99, 3/1/05 are in the mix. They all had at least good snow across most of the area. The ones that a bad were inland storms like march 1994. The map shows that my thinking that west is more a threat then east might be valid. 

IMG_0845.PNG

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

How about the psuhoffman storm?  And old favorite and he was really the first to get excited about it

I can't even remember how that happened but I didn't name it that. I don't care what you call this thing as long as I'm measuring a crap ton of snow come Tuesday night. 

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Fozz

Fozz

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I wonder if the analogs when we were looking for Sunday were cross pollinated with Tuesday. Some of them make more sense. If you combine both 108 and 120 some nice storms show up. Number 2 is march 1993 lol. Jan 2011, pd2, 2/14/14, 2/12/06, 3/15/99, 3/1/05 are in the mix. They all had at least good snow across most of the area. The ones that a bad were inland storms like march 1994. The map shows that my thinking that west is more a threat then east might be valid. 

IMG_0845.PNG

Looks great. If we're looking for a good MECS with heavy wet paste, this is what I'd like to see.

Should we call this the psuhoffman storm II?

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BTRWx

BTRWx

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I wonder if the analogs when we were looking for Sunday were cross pollinated with Tuesday. Some of them make more sense. If you combine both 108 and 120 some nice storms show up. Number 2 is march 1993 lol. Jan 2011, pd2, 2/14/14, 2/12/06, 3/15/99, 3/1/05 are in the mix. They all had at least good snow across most of the area. The ones that a bad were inland storms like march 1994. The map shows that my thinking that west is more a threat then east might be valid. 

IMG_0845.PNG

I'm glad you posted this.  How does one access that?  I've been looking everywhere on cpc and wpc for it.

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BTRWx

BTRWx

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Fozz said:

Looks great. If we're looking for a good MECS with heavy wet paste, this is what I'd like to see.

Should we call this the psuhoffman storm II?

Nothing with psu (bad omen)

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