PrinceFrederickWx Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 March 25 is the December 5 of this decade. Book it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 The NE corner of the panels has a 2-3" finger of snow from today. All the stuff overhead is through d12. Mostly d9-12. Signal is weak but we still have a week to work out the details Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The NE corner of the panels has a 2-3" finger of snow from today. All the stuff overhead is through d12. Mostly d9-12. Signal is weak but we still have a week to work out the details Euro looks to have the same sort of look as the CMC at 240? I can't tell if it has high pressure sliding down from Canada tho? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 15 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The NE corner of the panels has a 2-3" finger of snow from today. All the stuff overhead is through d12. Mostly d9-12. Signal is weak but we still have a week to work out the details We're going to need 9-10 days to work out details because we had 7 with today's and things still didn't go as planned. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 19 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Euro looks to have the same sort of look as the CMC at 240? I can't tell if it has high pressure sliding down from Canada tho? For the record, I'm mostly just having fun and have very low expectations. With that said it's intriguing enough to casually watch. Ensembles in general favor a low tracking out of the MS valley region and to our west but there is a stout cold hp in front of it so that leaves a couple options. Get lucky with a vort/lp passing underneath with cold hp to the north or have one run west with cad in place. You can easily see the CAD setup on the first panel. Here's the EPS low location spread before and after D10 And a few squeeze underneath and off the coast: So the sweet option would be a version of this: The WinWxluvr special option is also on the table (which is unlikely to work out for us in late March but folks to the NW would have a better shot): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 This storm left me feeling hungry like going to buffet and only hitting the salad bar. I'm in. This event was so close to being epic. Just like a gambler trying to make up losses I will feed the machine once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 55 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: March 23rd-24th NorthArlington101 Birthday Storm. It's a mouthful, but you heard it here first. My bday is on the 23rd! All I want for it is a real snow storm...and bottle of good beer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 5 minutes ago, BristowWx said: This storm left me feeling hungry like going to buffet and only hitting the salad bar. I'm in. This event was so close to being epic. Just like a gambler trying to make up losses I will feed the machine once again. After a week of following a potentially historic snowstorm, it felt more like only getting an appetizer. Such a bummer. What happened to all the potential after this event? There were even signs of things to come Thursday and Saturday! I guess the AO and NAO are still not cooperating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 This weekend is beginning to look a little more interesting on the EPS. More distinct trough dropping down through the Midwest that is coming in deeper and farther west with the dig. We are now seeing a closed off low at 500mbs running through PA. Would be a typical Miller B setup. A little more dig and a little farther track westward as it first digs into the US and we could possibly be talking something. At this point the snowfall means show the possibility with an uptick through central MD and a much more noticeable uptick toward the NE indicative of a Miller B that developes just a little too late for our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: This weekend is beginning to look a little more interesting on the EPS. More distinct trough dropping down through the Midwest that is coming in deeper and farther west with the dig. We are now seeing a closed off low at 500mbs running through PA. Would be a typical Miller B setup. A little more dig and a little farther track westward as it first digs into the US and we could possibly be talking something. At this point the snowfall means show the possibility with an uptick through central MD and a much more noticeable uptick toward the NE indicative of a Miller B that developes just a little too late for our region. I thought Temps this weekend were supposed to be 50's? Is there a source of cold air we're missing on the Ops? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: I thought Temps this weekend were supposed to be 50's? Is there a source of cold air we're missing on the Ops? Haven't looked into the surface temps and not as concerned with them at this time of year as I am with the temps upstairs. 850's are frigid which is all I want to see with this type of setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 23 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I thought Temps this weekend were supposed to be 50's? Is there a source of cold air we're missing on the Ops? Thought I would elaborate a little why surface temps don't concern me that much. At this time of year the warmth on the surface is for the most part induced by the sun heating the near surface thus it is very shallow and can be overcome very quickly from radiational cooling in the evenings or from the cold air being drawn down from the upper levels we would see as a Miller B develops and intensifies. At this point the bigger issue is if we can get it to dig under us far enough to get us in on the action as it develops. If we can get that I have little worry that with the very frigid temps upstairs that the surface wouldn't for the most part cooperate especially if this were at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 11 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Thought I would elaborate a little why surface temps don't concern me that much. At this time of year the warmth on the surface is for the most part induced by the sun heating the near surface thus it is very shallow and can be overcome very quickly from radiational cooling in the evenings or from the cold air being drawn down from the upper levels we would see as a Miller B develops and intensifies. At this point the bigger issue is if we can get it to dig under us far enough to get us in on the action as it develops. If we can get that I have little worry that with the very frigid temps upstairs that the surface wouldn't for the most part cooperate especially if this were at night. Yeah, I hear ya...Hopefully it shows up on the op and other modeling. If not, we just have to wait for our 10 day sure fire storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 When I was scrolling through the GEFS for the day 10 thread I was surprised by the couple of ens members there that showed snow nearby this weekend. It's a period to watch, considering we have little else to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 15, 2017 Share Posted March 15, 2017 I don't think this weekend has any chance to be honest. Pattern doesn't support enough amplification to drive anything underneath us. However, the d9-12 period could. The cold shot prior is well modeled and seems pretty likely. It's nothing extreme or anything but a cold Canadian high to our north could supply enough cold air. Ensembles still favor a nw track. Especially with anything amplified but some sort of overrunning wave along the boundary is in the mix and even a front end kind of deal with a nw track low. There's no real blocking showing up so any potential would be the typical timing something right. The details will remain fuzzy for a while so no sense over thinking anything. But there does appear to be an airmass on tap next week that could support an event if the pieces come together just right. My guess is too little too late. Which is an easy guess because late March gets really hostile around here for snow until you get out to Winwxluvrland, Mappyville, Sparkytown, and PSU Township. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 15, 2017 Share Posted March 15, 2017 7 hours ago, Bob Chill said: I don't think this weekend has any chance to be honest. Pattern doesn't support enough amplification to drive anything underneath us. However, the d9-12 period could. The cold shot prior is well modeled and seems pretty likely. It's nothing extreme or anything but a cold Canadian high to our north could supply enough cold air. Ensembles still favor a nw track. Especially with anything amplified but some sort of overrunning wave along the boundary is in the mix and even a front end kind of deal with a nw track low. There's no real blocking showing up so any potential would be the typical timing something right. The details will remain fuzzy for a while so no sense over thinking anything. But there does appear to be an airmass on tap next week that could support an event if the pieces come together just right. My guess is too little too late. Which is an easy guess because late March gets really hostile around here for snow until you get out to Winwxluvrland, Mappyville, Sparkytown, and PSU Township. As with you, I had for the most part dismissed this weekend several days ago. The setup just wasn't there whatsoever. Yesterday's 12z, as well as the prior 00z somewhat, though have seen modest changes in the general setup that in my mind actually breathed some life into that time period. We are seeing better separation between the transient 50/50 and the Midwest trough which is now allowing decent ridging to build between these two features. The configuration of the PV itself has also shifted now allowing stronger higher heights to build over-top the trough and connect with the transient 50/50 induced ridging. So though we don't see a legit blocking pattern I do see a temporary pseudo block being put into place with these features. The response from these changes has us seeing the trough dig into the US a little farther west, a little deeper and axis has backed somewhat to where we now see the trough with a neutral tilt as it swings through the east. Surface also responded where as we were seeing the lower pressures off of NY in the last several runs to where we now see them setting up off of the Eastern shore on the latest run. So though I think the odds are low I am not sure we can quite write off the weekend quite yet especially if the trends we have seen the last run or two continue on the Euro. Note: The 00Z Euro is close once again. Upper air support lags a little behind. Will be curious what the EPS shows a little later. Second Note: All my ramblings are based on the Euro. GFS and the CMC are in the northern camp and don't agree with the Euros solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 15, 2017 Share Posted March 15, 2017 The overnight EPS run has once again seen improvements. Trough has shifted once again slightly west as it enters the US. We are seeing better dig from that feature as well. The closed low embedded within that trough is coming in stronger and has shifted a touch south. The low pressure anomalies would suggest a possible further adjustment south with that embedded low as well. Though the ridging we see between the departing 50/50 and our trough is a touch weaker that is being more then offset with the higher heights we are seeing over top of the trough. Surface reflection has seen a slight uptick with mean low pressures off the coast as well as another shift south centering them just off shore and slightly north of the mouth of the Chesapeake bay. Also of note is the fairly strong banana high over the top and west of our developing Miller B. At this point though the means as well as the individual ensembles still suggest that the development of this low would probably occur to late for our region. As far as the snowfall means through this period we see an uptick with lesser amounts around DC to higher amounts to the north. Dc sees a 1/2 inch increase, Balt sees an inch and the MD/PA line is at 1 1/2 inches. Hard to compare to the prior run, which was muddied by our now departed low, but the mean snowfall looks to have increased a touch from the 12Z. One thing to note though is some of this snow may be reflecting the ULL pass through our region and not be associated a possible Miler B. Overall the overnight run IMO increased the odds through this period. But considering that we are talking a late developing MillerB (favors regions to our north) and a timing issue with the transient 50/50 I think the odds are still long. Note: Just a quick mention on the means for the full 15 day period which are fairly impressive for this late in the season. We are seeing the 6 inch mean running roughly around the MD/PA line, Baltimore clocking in with 4 and DC with 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 15, 2017 Share Posted March 15, 2017 I actually like the potential for next weeks event. Anything amped up will obviously cut. But there is some very cold air available over the lakes for a decent CAD event. Thumper/ice type of deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 15, 2017 Share Posted March 15, 2017 I'm all in for next week...There's a nice 1040 high coming down...the GFS has our storm running right toward it and raining on us now...but it's 220 hours away...it's bound to change! Hang in there guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 15, 2017 Share Posted March 15, 2017 8 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I'm all in for next week...There's a nice 1040 high coming down...the GFS has our storm running right toward it and raining on us now...but it's 220 hours away...it's bound to change! Hang in there guys I am in although i think we missed our best opportunity man. a 50 mile east shift would of made a big difference. Back in the valley where we belong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 15, 2017 Share Posted March 15, 2017 7 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I'm all in for next week...There's a nice 1040 high coming down...the GFS has our storm running right toward it and raining on us now...but it's 220 hours away...it's bound to change! Hang in there guys Euro op had the front end option last night. Couple inches of snow before the flip. Believe it or not the EPS actually is starting to support the wave under us and has increased the number of bigger hits by quite a margin. LOL Wave through the TN valley with a cold dome over top is a pretty classic way for us to score. I'm more than just a little interested now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 15, 2017 Share Posted March 15, 2017 9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Euro op had the front end option last night. Couple inches of snow before the flip. Believe it or not the EPS actually is starting to support the wave under us and has increased the number of bigger hits by quite a margin. LOL Wave through the TN valley with a cold dome over top is a pretty classic way for us to score. I'm more than just a little interested now. I'm mostly being serious though..I'm in for this one...the players shown on the field are interesting enough to believe that we have a shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 15, 2017 Share Posted March 15, 2017 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I'm mostly being serious though..I'm in for this one...the players shown on the field are interesting enough to believe that we have a shot. It's very intriguing. It's totally 50/50 driven. EPS really upped the strength of the 50/50 on the means last night. Check this out. 12z EPS @ 240: 0z @ 216: 0z EPS MSLP panels. Low in TN/KY with CAD sig Even through this isn't apples to apples because it's the same time stamp, the 12z EPS yesterday had MSLP much further north: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 15, 2017 Share Posted March 15, 2017 Yeah, that set up would be legit, love the 50/50 on the maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 15, 2017 Share Posted March 15, 2017 It better start snowing the second the cold front moves in cause a cold high isn't going to last long this late in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 15, 2017 Share Posted March 15, 2017 What does the euro show for Friday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 15, 2017 Share Posted March 15, 2017 3 hours ago, Bob Chill said: It's very intriguing. It's totally 50/50 driven. EPS really upped the strength of the 50/50 on the means last night. Check this out. 12z EPS @ 240: 0z @ 216: 0z EPS MSLP panels. Low in TN/KY with CAD sig Even through this isn't apples to apples because it's the same time stamp, the 12z EPS yesterday had MSLP much further north: Sure looks like the gfs is a much different solution. Hopefully it will be way too far north with this system just like it was with last Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 15, 2017 Share Posted March 15, 2017 Did the 12z GEFS go with the operational or is there still some support for something handing off to a low off the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 15, 2017 Share Posted March 15, 2017 I'm gonna assume that the gefs and the euro didn't look too spiffy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 15, 2017 Share Posted March 15, 2017 41 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I'm gonna assume that the gefs and the euro didn't look too spiffy You'd assume right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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