feloniousq Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Just now, EastCoast NPZ said: Chuck Bell is a genius. Meanwhile his friend Doug is tweeting that the storm's so far west it'll rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Just now, feloniousq said: Meanwhile his friend Doug is tweeting that the storm's so far west it'll rain. NBC 4 has the worst mets. Absolutely no consistency with them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Lets pray we dont see a cluster of the GEFS that look like the CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: NBC 4 has the worst mets. Absolutely no consistency with them. I respectfully disagree. #banter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: I can't find a single model that doesn't look excellent. lol Problem solved. At least its out of the way since you know we were due for one bad one. CMC for the win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 12z GGEM is well east of GFSThats good news anyway. The fact the gfs has 'ticked' west 50 miles each run for the last 4 suites is still enough of a factor to raise an eyebrow. Seems a western outlier but still. Great signal still for a whopper with cheese. SS storm :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 If you take a look at the progression of the 500 mb energy, it goes through Chicago and then into NW PA. This is a big red flag for us. We need the western energy to transfer to the coast or else it'll drag the coastal low too far inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 For those worried about a west track...the CMC is a disaster east track. So wait....lead time is shrinking but model divergence is increasing?? This hobby is enough to drive someone bonkers, sheesh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 27 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Go for it It is done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 I've built up so much on this storm, that if it fails, the cliff jump will be instant death. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Except for the obvious issues with the western extent of the track it was a very good run. One thing I would like to point out is that it looks as if the GFS took a pretty big step on moving towards a capture. Drops the northern portion of the trough somewhat deeper and speeds that up somewhat from the 06Z run. We now see less separation between the surface low and the strong closed low at 500's. Implications of seeing a capture at this point with this setup would probably be to slow the low down and/or back it up somewhat. Depending on if this were to happen and where the placement of this would occur could mean somewhat big implications towards totals for a portion of the east where this occurred. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 new thread, yo. Move all talk for next week there but keep it about the storm only Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Probably not going to amount to anything, but no harm in keeping an eye on this - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 GFS rebuilds the davis/baffin block and basically has a winter pattern through all 16 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 18 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: GFS rebuilds the davis/baffin block and basically has a winter pattern through all 16 days. Other than the obvious storm, this was the biggest take-away from this run for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 2 hours ago, Bob Chill said: GFS rebuilds the davis/baffin block and basically has a winter pattern through all 16 days. Haven't really looked in the longer range since the Tuesday storm hit the radar. Quite noticeable changes on both the GEFS and the EPS from what we were seeing just 4-5 days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlowerLowerDE Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 7 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said: Mount Holly, in their morning AFD, used the phrase "astounding snow totals" when discussing a Euro-like evolution. Yes, when I read that I almost posted it here. I have never seen them write something like that before. I don't think they are referring to my area unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 5 hours ago, Bob Chill said: GFS rebuilds the davis/baffin block and basically has a winter pattern through all 16 days. 18z gfs has snow on snow on snow lol. The last one warms and goes to rain after a thump but who cares and it's 8 days out. When these things set in they often have legs and models try to break them down too fast just like with warm patterns. We probably stay below normal for a while in general. I wonder how much "winter" we can bleed out of this pattern before climo slams the door shut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: 18z gfs has snow on snow on snow lol. The last one warms and goes to rain after a thump but who cares and it's 8 days out. When these things set in they often have legs and models try to break them down too fast just like with warm patterns. We probably stay below normal for a while in general. I wonder how much "winter" we can bleed out of this pattern before climo slams the door shut. Well late March into April (3/22-4/7) 1990 had three decent snows, so that's kind of the recent benchmark for super late season production. I'm hoping for one last event in early April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: 18z gfs has snow on snow on snow lol. The last one warms and goes to rain after a thump but who cares and it's 8 days out. When these things set in they often have legs and models try to break them down too fast just like with warm patterns. We probably stay below normal for a while in general. I wonder how much "winter" we can bleed out of this pattern before climo slams the door shut. If tues pans out well and we get an inv trough on Wed or a clipper on thurs then I'm pretty much happy for the year and really won't care. A complete disaster snatched from the jaws of depsair at the last minute makes everything right with the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 This looks like those CFS maps that were posted earlier in the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: If tues pans out well and we get an inv trough on Wed or a clipper on thurs then I'm pretty much happy for the year and really won't care. A complete disaster snatched from the jaws of depsair at the last minute makes everything right with the world. Any winter that has an 6"+ event that sticks on the roads gets a passing grade from me. I rated 08/09 a D-. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 4 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: For another thread but worth mentioning the gefs has another coastal signal after day 8 Early signs point to a snowy winter. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 35 minutes ago, WVclimo said: This looks like those CFS maps that were posted earlier in the week. What if they are finally right once. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 43 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: If tues pans out well and we get an inv trough on Wed or a clipper on thurs then I'm pretty much happy for the year and really won't care. A complete disaster snatched from the jaws of depsair at the last minute makes everything right with the world. I agree. If we pull off a good week in front of us then anything after is just gravy. The signal day 8 is pretty good on the ensembles. If Tuesday wasn't in front of us we would be talking about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 The gefs mean is about 4.5" AFTER Tuesday. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 hours ago, SlowerLowerDE said: Yes, when I read that I almost posted it here. I have never seen them write something like that before. I don't think they are referring to my area unfortunately. Yes I doubt it will be my area either. But that all depends on the model run, and which silly generated snow map(if any) one chooses to put stock in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Gefs mean snowfall is another 4-6" south to north AFTER Tuesday's storm. That's pretty healthy and we would probably be dissecting the threats if Tuesday wasn't in front of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Clipper looks nice on the 6z GFS. 1-3 inches with a jackpot south of the cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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