yoda Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Just now, RidingTheModelWithMostSnow said: The CMC is digging more at 78 its already out... a miss mostly to our east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: For those worried about a west track...the CMC is a disaster east track. I wouldn't go as far to being worried. I'm looking at trends cautiously. It's amazing how this has been coming together! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Here is another algorithm's opinion from the 12Z GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 CMC barely has anything west of 95. That is a painful run to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 I think Parr's Ridge is going to clean up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: CMC keeps the NS and SS basically separate. Compact precip shield with the southern storm. Has a weird double barrel look too. It could happen that way I suppose but definitely an outlier for now Odd...and not long ago it was showing the just about the best track with the least complication for us. Quite a switch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 1 minute ago, Paleocene said: I am not smart enough to interpret this, but I saw people mentioning an eastward track of the low. Here's the last six runs of the GFS at 12z Tuesday. Looks like an east "trend" That last frame could be problematic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: CMC barely has anything west of 95. That is a painful run to look at. Saw Will (ORHwxman) in the SNE thread say its all southern stream with no real northern stream interaction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Just now, BTRWx said: That last frame could be problematic. Not when there's already 8-12+" of snow on the ground for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: Not when there's already 8-12+" of snow on the ground for everyone. Thanks for clearing that up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Ralph Wiggum wants you to know, this is a big interior hit. Guess the GFS was listening lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: CMC barely has anything west of 95. That is a painful run to look at. So it looks like we have the goalposts opening up a bit as we get closer. GFS is for now, the western edge and CMC is the eastern edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Cmcs cat3 microcane missing too far east is exactly what I want to see until 48hrs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 LOL - Wow at the GGEM. That's a pretty big divergence from the tightening of the models we've been seeing. figures we get a complete meltdown run somewhere along the way. Onto the EURO I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Does the GFS still have a SE bias? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 1 minute ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: Next That has happened before...but for now is the outlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Guess the GFS was listening lol. lol 8-12" for DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 northern neck of virginia likes the CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: So it looks like we have the goalposts opening up a bit as we get closer. GFS is for now, the western edge and CMC is the eastern edge. The problem with the CMC isn't really an eastern track as much as there is no interaction between the NS and SS vort so everything is very compact. It's the first op to show this so lets just hope it's missing the phase. It looked ok leading in but the streams never joined hands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Very odd to see that kind of sudden divergence after such consistency the past few days. GFS even more west, CMC way east. Save us Euro! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 I'm putting this here before the new thread is made. If you are posting "next" in the disc thread. I'm deleting your ****. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 1 minute ago, Kmlwx said: LOL - Wow at the GGEM. That's a pretty big divergence from the tightening of the models we've been seeing. figures we get a complete meltdown run somewhere along the way. Onto the EURO I suppose. You have the UKMET between Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: CMC barely has anything west of 95. That is a painful run to look at. and there is the biggest risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Seems like trough doesn't go negative on CMC, and accelerating NS just kicks out the developing coastal as it is strengthening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 1 minute ago, Kmlwx said: LOL - Wow at the GGEM. That's a pretty big divergence from the tightening of the models we've been seeing. figures we get a complete meltdown run somewhere along the way. Onto the EURO I suppose. If the CMC hadn't been one of the first models to catch on to the Sunday fail I would be laughing at it. If the UK/Euro follow suit and move well east we'll know we're in trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 4 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: Next Chuck Bell is a genius. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 The GEM is my worst nightmare with these type of storms. The front end thump is sucked up into the forming coastal before I get anything. Then the Coastal precip misses me too. Just why I hate these type of setups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 1 minute ago, DCTeacherman said: If the CMC hadn't been one of the first models to catch on to the Sunday fail I would be laughing at it. If the UK/Euro follow suit and move well east we'll know we're in trouble. No kidding since we are 3.5 days away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 1 minute ago, osfan24 said: Very odd to see that kind of sudden divergence after such consistency the past few days. GFS even more west, CMC way east. Save us Euro! It sounds like banter, but there may be some truth to the euro honing in between the rest of the guidance based on history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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