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March med-long range disco 3


WxUSAF

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42 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Mentioned this earlier. Though I haven't looked into the ops to verify what you are probably seeing is a response to the models beginning to key on a dominant southern stream low with little to no interference from the NS energy until later. That coupled with a distinct shortwave now showing up riding up the trough is allowing the low to intensify much farther south as well intensify quicker. Would not be surprised to see that low further intensify over coming runs.

Mount Holly, in their morning AFD, used the phrase "astounding snow totals" when discussing a Euro-like evolution.

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5 minutes ago, EB89 said:

Wouldn't this argue for a further west track? 

Apologies for asking, but how did the mean look?  Mostly snow for everyone or did it get messy for east of 95?  As pictured, it would appear in my eyes to be far enough offshore to keep everyone but the beaches relatively happy.

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With ops solidly keeping us inside the solid event with wiggle room goalposts and ensembles improving every run, I'm not going to worry about a single thing. Yes, we know where some problems could appear but until they do why bother. 

It could be snowing in our yards in as little as 84 hours. We're getting pretty close to the point where drastic shifts become very unlikely. And having some room in all directions at this point feels pretty damn good. 

 

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1 minute ago, MD Snow said:

Interesting to see the 12z NAM start to catch on to the idea of having a distinct southern low now that is in front of the northern low. First time it is really showing that. 

Agreed. End of the run shows a 1018 low developing off the CHS coast. 850 line south of the VA border with moisture incoming.

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Just now, Buddy1987 said:

Agreed. End of the run shows a 1018 low developing off the CHS coast. 850 line south of the VA border with moisture incoming.

I thought the 84hr NAM was a thing of beauty at 500mb...that just looks classic for an MA snow event to this untrained eye

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Just now, BristowWx said:

I thought the 84hr NAM was a thing of beauty at 500mb...that just looks classic for an MA snow event to this untrained eye

It is very sharp on the backside with the energy over MS and AL. Good 5h picture for gulf moisture to be advected northward. This is a classic for sure. Im starting to get excited.

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11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

With ops solidly keeping us inside the solid event with wiggle room goalposts and ensembles improving every run, I'm not going to worry about a single thing. Yes, we know where some problems could appear but until they do why bother. 

It could be snowing in our yards in as little as 84 hours. We're getting pretty close to the point where drastic shifts become very unlikely. And having some room in all directions at this point feels pretty damn good. 

 

Ralph Wiggum wants you to know, this is a big interior hit.  

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The company that handles our (my work's) snow-plowing and landscaping provides updates to me from their weather adviser (Precision Weather Service).  Let's just say they remain unimpressed with with the global models.  Their release today shows .10" precip for Tuesday, and their wording focuses almost exclusively on the northeast.  They are either very good, or are about to be very wrong.

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