showmethesnow Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 I know people are desperate for snow, but we don't get setups where we can go kaboom very often. I'd rather go all in. Feb 2014 was an ok event, but we got thumped late overnight when few were up and then, unless you are up with PSU, you had 10-12 inches on the ground and most of it was melted by the end of the day. This being in March, I can only imagine it being worse. I'll go with the dig and phase and take my chances it's a total bust. Unless you are looking for another 93 I am not quite sure what you are looking for. The scenario of a dominant southern stream is a lower risk/high reward type setup vs the phasing solution which were a high risk/slightly higher reward scenario. At this point, for your local if it plays out as shown you with a dominant southern low you would probably be talking a foot if not more of snow. The phasing solutions being shown would have probably seen comparable snowfall (maybe a little more) at best for your location and at worse much less as the low got its act together too far to the west and north for you to get into the action. To be honest I wasn't to big a fan of the phasing solutions being thrown out (even the possible triple phaser) they just looked off on setup in timing in my mind. I saw a large potential for fail with them. I would also point out, though it is at low probability at this point, what PSU had brought up earlier in regards to the closed upper level low rotating through the Midwest, this feature could possibly have a very big impact on our upside potential if it were to play out just right. Again, that is of low probability at this point. But with the models continuing to evolve and with 3/4 days you just never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 30 minutes ago, osfan24 said: I know people are desperate for snow, but we don't get setups where we can go kaboom very often. I'd rather go all in. Feb 2014 was an ok event, but we got thumped late overnight when few were up and then, unless you are up with PSU, you had 10-12 inches on the ground and most of it was melted by the end of the day. This being in March, I can only imagine it being worse. I'll go with the dig and phase and take my chances it's a total bust. Feb 2014 was one of the best events we've had here for a snow to mix setup. It was borderline hecs overnight. Just dumped for hours. I'd take a storm like that again easily though I'd probably prefer a 4-6" all snow event over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Interesting comparing last 2 Euro runs surface pressure. I noted a 13 mb stronger low at hour 108 in the latest run . I'm Sure there is going to be fluctuations but that's pretty significant - curious to see if a stronger southern stream theme low continues. Many late nights ahead but matter the outcome it'll be exciting tracking. If 12z GFS/CMC/UKMET/EURO looks good, I'm in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Just now, losetoa6 said: No doubt man... Of course I think I dove in last night.... too late to go back pedaling now..lol Not gonna lie...this is the kind of storm I've been dreaming of my entire life. Far more excited about this than the Jan '16 blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 I cannot wait for tonight's 18z Run. That will be the first run that will be in the NAM range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 6 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Interesting comparing last 2 Euro runs surface pressure. I noted a 13 mb stronger low at hour 108 in the latest run . I'm Sure there is going to be fluctuations but that's pretty significant - curious to see if a stronger southern stream theme low continues. Many late nights ahead but matter the outcome it'll be exciting tracking. Mentioned this earlier. Though I haven't looked into the ops to verify what you are probably seeing is a response to the models beginning to key on a dominant southern stream low with little to no interference from the NS energy until later. That coupled with a distinct shortwave now showing up riding up the trough is allowing the low to intensify much farther south as well intensify quicker. Would not be surprised to see that low further intensify over coming runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: Not gonna lie...this is the kind of storm I've been dreaming of my entire life. Far more excited about this than the Jan '16 blizzard. If Eskimo Joe is in I'm in too. Just did a major briefing on the storm with the agency director. It's gaining attention big time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Not gonna lie...this is the kind of storm I've been dreaming of my entire life. Far more excited about this than the Jan '16 blizzard. How come? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Just now, osfan24 said: How come? Wetter snow, more dynamic storm. Jan '16 was low energy fluff that did nothing for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: If Eskimo Joe is in I'm in too. Just did a major briefing on the storm with the agency director. It's gaining attention big time. What areas are they keying on at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 6 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: If Eskimo Joe is in I'm in too. Just did a major briefing on the storm with the agency director. It's gaining attention big time. Didnt you cancel winter on tuesday?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 My concern is that we see this over-amplify and it tracks *just* far enough west that snow is confined to the high elevations. I'm not sure an out to sea solution is plausible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 I guess it's far too early to say, but what could/are winds looking like with this? Is the B word possible? I guess it really depends on the evolution. I saw a good post on another forum about convective feedback on the 6z GFS that could have been the reason there wasn't a quick phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: My concern is that we see this over-amplify and it tracks *just* far enough west that snow is confined to the high elevations. I'm not sure an out to sea solution is plausible. That's definitely my concern. That was really my concern from the beginning. I was actually surprised that the original CWG article didn't really touch on that possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 1 minute ago, osfan24 said: I guess it's far too early to say, but what could/are winds looking like with this? Is the B word possible? I guess it really depends on the evolution. I saw a good post on another forum about convective feedback on the 6z GFS that could have been the reason there wasn't a quick phase. I believe Euro solution was possible blizzard conditions due to the wind gradient and block to the North of the low pressure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 1 minute ago, osfan24 said: I guess it's far too early to say, but what could/are winds looking like with this? Is the B word possible? I guess it really depends on the evolution. I saw a good post on another forum about convective feedback on the 6z GFS that could have been the reason there wasn't a quick phase. I Believe I read that the Euro showed 982 mb over Hatteras? If so, that is very intense at that latitude making Blizzard possible somewhere along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 15 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Wetter snow, more dynamic storm. Jan '16 was low energy fluff that did nothing for me. Are u serious? Jan 16 was about as good as it gets here. If I see a storm like that within the next 20 yrs here I'd be impressed. That and 96 are the mother ship storms for this area. This next event is still a paper champ for now. 96 and 16 delivered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Just now, 87storms said: Jan 16 was about as good as it gets here. Unless you were stuck in a snow hole for 8 hours like I was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 I am still concerned about dry slotting in a setup like this. Especially out this way. But we tend to do pretty well with the front end thump in these scenarios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 6 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: I share in your passion for March snow . Nothing like a wet snow paste bomb. If I could travel back in time to experience 1 storm of my choice it be March 19, 1958. The best paste bomb here that I'm old enough to remember is feb 87. That was just insane. Monster sized flakes for 6 hrs straight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Guidance also starting to highlight the coastal flooding threat along the barrier islands...that's another sign this is trending towards a fun event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 8 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: I am still concerned about dry slotting in a setup like this. Especially out this way. But we tend to do pretty well with the front end thump in these scenarios. Regardless of the track and intensity, there will be some dry slotting and mixing especially east of 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Guidance also starting to highlight the coastal flooding threat along the barrier islands...that's another sign this is trending towards a fun event. Except for those on the barrier islands? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 With setups like this, my primary concern is always the infamous r/s line along the corridor...What has to happen to keep that on the eastern half of the bay? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 13 minutes ago, smokeybandit said: Unless you were stuck in a snow hole for 8 hours like I was. NW of 95 definitely had a much better time in last year's blizzard because they never really had a period of flurries or very light snow. The deform band just sat on them. I had a big accumulation and it was great where I was, but I had very light snow that amounted to hardly anything from like 7 am to early afternoon. Once the deform moved east, it was awesome. It puked snow with raging winds for 3-4 hours in the afternoon. That really made the event a lot better for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 21 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: I share in your passion for March snow . Nothing like a wet snow paste bomb. If I could travel back in time to experience 1 storm of my choice it be March 28-29, 1942 FYP My grandmother (who turns 89 this year) has lived in the region her entire life, and still tells me stories about that storm. Always incredible to read about it- the rest of that winter was a dumpster fire too (kinda like this one was for many). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: With setups like this, my primary concern is always the infamous r/s line along the corridor...What has to happen to keep that on the eastern half of the bay? Lol Storm track far enough east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 5 minutes ago, osfan24 said: NW of 95 definitely had a much better time in last year's blizzard because they never really had a period of flurries or very light snow. The deform band just sat on them. I had a big accumulation and it was great where I was, but I had very light snow that amounted to hardly anything from like 7 am to early afternoon. Once the deform moved east, it was awesome. It puked snow with raging winds for 3-4 hours in the afternoon. That really made the event a lot better for me. Missed out on the highest totals during last year's Blizzard. Picked up 16 to 18 inches here, versus many across the Bay and in the North Baltimore Counies that picked over over 28 inches to 30 . Deform never shifted really for hours and hours. So here in Northern Delware the impact was far less and I need to go back to the winter of 09-10 to get back to the biggests dogs. December 09 was incredible , measured 26 inches here at my location, avergaed out , just South of the C and D Canal in Delaware. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Panasonic EPS low locations. Most of those looking purtty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: Panasonic EPS low locations. Most of those looking purtty. Is there a correlation to this and what the next Euro op and ensembles will show ? As is this a lead in to the next possible model trend or forecast or just another variation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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