Superstorm Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 I think I'm with PSU. Our biggest concern may be further west with the track of the low.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 The mean is solid..4-8" west of line from DCA to ILM...drops off south and east of there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 minute ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Thought this was mostly a later Monday night through Tuesday time frame? Or are you referring to the onset? yes..Tuesday afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Just now, Deck Pic said: The mean is solid..4-8" west of line from DCA to ILM...drops off south and east of there That is solid. An improvement over last run by a good amount, I believe... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: The big issue is temps in the PM on Monday...we plummet in the evening...but that window is scary didnt the storm start around 5am tuesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Just now, Ji said: didnt the storm start around 5am tuesday? 9p Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Just now, Deck Pic said: The mean is solid..4-8" west of line from DCA to ILM...drops off south and east of there That is very solid. So we have GFS/GEFS/CMC/EURO/EPS and maybe UK all in agreement that we get measurable snow and we're within 5 days. I'm starting to believe it might actually happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: The mean is solid..4-8" west of line from DCA to ILM...drops off south and east of there Solid... we go from there... its nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 EPS Mean QPF for MondayTuesday event only..doesn't count Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 6 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: yes..Tuesday afternoon OK, thanks. I can see it being tight for awhile Tuesday afternoon, but then temps plummet as the thing winds up late day. Of course by then, we'd have gotten hit pretty well already. On the other hand, I guess we also want it to cool off rapidly late Monday before the precip starts, but maybe that's not a factor here. ETA: Could this almost be similar to the Feb. 12-13, 2014 event as things stand now? In terms of getting hammered overnight into early morning, followed by light rain/drizzle much of the next day. It's not identical and I don't even think the setup is the same. But was just in the back of my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 JMA is a disaster so confidence is shakenYeah but looks good for tomorrow. Its also not putrid for Tuesday. One system at a time :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Only 40 hours until we get NAM'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Where is Yoda and his famous "We take"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Looks like a mean of 5.5" for DCA for Monday-Tuesday on the EPS. Good 2" increase over the 0z. Farther north you get the better... 10" mean in N MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 12z Panasonic EPS Total Snowfall Mean at 144 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 I'm pretty sure DC proper will suck though the overnight thump might save us....the good stuff is over by midday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 9, 2017 Author Share Posted March 9, 2017 Ryan Maue posting EPS maps on twitter for those interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 12z EPS Control 10-12" or so around DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: Valhalla +1 for Vikings reference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 LWX Afternoon AFD re next week system: .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A weak wave of low pressure will pass well south of the area on Sunday. The edge of upper jet forcing/vorticity advection could clip areas from Monterey to Charlottesville with some flurries or light snow, but areas north of there across the rest of the CWA likely won`t see any precipitation from this system. Temperatures will remain well below normal, with daytime highs a few degrees on either side of the freezing mark. Pattern evolution and model guidance continues to show potential for wintry weather early next week. The most likely time from would be late Monday into Tuesday. Model guidance has been quite persistent with broad, anomalously strong ridging over western North America anchored near longitude 120 W. This is a very favorable position for East Coast cyclogenesis. Models have been inconsistent with the extent of transient downstream blocking over the North Atlantic, which will play an important role in the degrees of phasing of northern and southern stream shortwaves and ultimately the track/strength/impact of the storm early next week. Virtually all guidance now show at least light measurable precipitation, with a few runs (12z GFS/CMC/UKMET) showing a stronger system hugging the coast Monday night into Tuesday. Given the highly anomalous cold in place before the storm and potential phasing, this system bears close watching in the coming days. A reinforcing shot of cold will follow the early week system keeping temperatures below to well below normal through much of next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, mappy said: +1 for Vikings reference Did somebody say Vikings? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 I changed my mind, I think Sunday is the better threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 7 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: 12z ( Mrefs) H5... hour 132 Is MREF just the GFS ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I changed my mind, I think Sunday is the better threat. Say wha???? What are you seeing?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 In seriousness, I do think over amped is the bigger risk, and if you told me right now DC manages not to get snow I would say probably because the trough ends up digging down too far west and the storm cuts inland a bit and they go to rain. BUT....I do not think that is what is going to happen. And even if it did DC would probably still get SOMETHING from a front end thump. But right now we are in a pretty good spot. I would like to see a little bit more of a trend in our favor between the 3 variables I said earlier, (vort dig, early phase, stj energy) so that we have some wiggle room come the last minute adjustment period. You don't want to be riding the southern edge at 48 hours, we know that. But the trends are in our favor right now and were inside that magic day 5 wall. SO I am cautiously optimistic here, was just pointing out what my biggest fear of failure is, because some earlier seemed more worried about a miss to the east or northeast when in reality I think our bigger worry if it comes to it would be a too west solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 What are your thoughts on the potential of this for us if things trend better? Any decent snowstorm would be great, but I'm really about going big or going home. I'm talking top 10-15 snowstorm in Baltimore history. Can we hit 20? 2 feet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: In seriousness, I do think over amped is the bigger risk, and if you told me right now DC manages not to get snow I would say probably because the trough ends up digging down too far west and the storm cuts inland a bit and they go to rain. BUT....I do not think that is what is going to happen. And even if it did DC would probably still get SOMETHING from a front end thump. But right now we are in a pretty good spot. I would like to see a little bit more of a trend in our favor between the 3 variables I said earlier, (vort dig, early phase, stj energy) so that we have some wiggle room come the last minute adjustment period. You don't want to be riding the southern edge at 48 hours, we know that. But the trends are in our favor right now and were inside that magic day 5 wall. SO I am cautiously optimistic here, was just pointing out what my biggest fear of failure is, because some earlier seemed more worried about a miss to the east or northeast when in reality I think our bigger worry if it comes to it would be a too west solution. I see...But I still don't quite get you saying you liked Sunday, a complete miss, better than Tuesday. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 minute ago, osfan24 said: What are your thoughts on the potential of this for us if things trend better? Any decent snowstorm would be great, but I'm really about going big or going home. I'm talking top 10-15 snowstorm in Baltimore history. Can we hit 20? 2 feet? you realize it's March, right? double digits would be impressive and probably historic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.