cae Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 As the surface low gets captured on the GFS, it crushes northeast PA. Ukie appears to show the capture happening a little earlier, and the low moving up the coast a little slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Can't be the only one watching this Day 8ish storm on GFS I see it. It's a legit threat. It's been mentioned. The tues storm becomes a 50/50 and so delays the pattern breakdown a few more days which in turn attempts an encore a few days later. We have seen that scenario before so it's a legit threat but Day 8 so not worth more analysis then that. If you really wanna go crazy far out there are signs we reload one more time the last week of march. But let's get 12-18" Tuesday then we can worry about the cherry on top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Has the 00 UTC ECMWF initialized yet? I heard it is a good model for snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 I see it. It's a legit threat. It's been mentioned. The tues storm becomes a 50/50 and so delays the pattern breakdown a few more days which in turn attempts an encore a few days later. We have seen that scenario before so it's a legit threat but Day 8 so not worth more analysis then that. If you really wanna go crazy far out there are signs we reload one more time the last week of march. But let's get 12-18" Tuesday then we can worry about the cherry on top. My prediction is you jackpot and then lament what could have been if the evolution was better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 A couple of ugly tracks on the GEFS looking at the invidual members, but not sure if it's enough to worry about. Well think of it this way, if things were flipped and there were only 4-5 good members and 16 bad ones how confident would you feel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 My prediction is you jackpot and then lament what could have been if the evolution was better. No it's march and I've been humbled this year. Plus I just want my son to get to use his red snow shovel and sled. If I get over 6" I'll be "ok" and over 10" I'm calling it a complete win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Gefs really likes the day 8-10 threat too. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 No it's march and I've been humbled this year. Plus I just want my son to get to use his red snow shovel and sled. If I get over 6" I'll be "ok" and over 10" I'm calling it a complete win. You're going to do well. The euro précip field is going to be west of the other globals. Better resolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 The euro précip field is going to be west of the other globals. Better resolution. Sigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chase Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 It's March in DC...there's always something to worry about. But this is nothing new on the GEFS...it's been showing multiple scenarios for the last several days. It's been slowly consolidating the bad solutions down. What went wrong with the Snowquester? What type of system was it? Poorly modeled? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 You're going to do well. The euro précip field is going to be west of the other globals. Better resolution. Yea your right that it picks up on the Westminster death band thing better. But the consensus of the others is fine too. Like I said if I get 10" I'll be more then happy. More then that and I'll be over the moon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Sigh. My reaction exactly....Hoping it doesn't do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 What went wrong with the Snowquester? What type of system was it? Poorly modeled? Boundary temps were borderline and required heavy rates. The storm was shearing out and weakening as it moved in and to top it off there was convection down near Richmond robbing moisture transport up here. So it was a long period of light to moderate precip that couldn't overcome warm surface temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Boundary temps were borderline and required heavy rates. The storm was shearing out and weakening as it moved in and to top it off there was convection down near Richmond robbing moisture transport up here. So it was a long period of light to moderate precip that couldn't overcome warm surface temps. Exactly... The snowquester comparison is off. Snowquester failed because it had no cold air to work with, even with a perfect track. We could still fail here but it wouldn't be because of a bad antecedent airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Stop mentioning snowquester it looked nothing like this setup. This storm has more in common with March 93 than it does snowquester. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 EC setting up for a triple phaser at 72hrs. Don't know how far west it will go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 It's amazing what resolution will do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 96hrs, west of the GFS for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 1000mb off of SC at 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 It looks really amped up at 96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 It looks really amped up at 96. I might drive to leesburg for this storm Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Lol. 988 hugging Hatteras. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 850s look a lot warmer in the midwest, Not liking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 96hrs, west of the GFS for sure Yea but the coastal is way more dominant with a faster transfer so perhaps that offsets the more amped solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Yea but the coastal is way more dominant with a faster transfer so perhaps that offsets the more amped solution. I'd wait for Matt..Ampd has been terrible and wrong a few times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 I'd wait for Matt..Ampd has been terrible and wrong a few timesWho cares about 850 Temps in iowaSent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 It's close but look like dc mostly survives. 7" by 1pm and still coming down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Holy amped... 982 of the obx at 108... 850s and 2m still ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris624wx Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 hr 108. Low just off VA/NC border. 850s look pretty good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 It's close but look like dc mostly survives. 7" by 1pm and still coming down. Thanks. Some people really jump the gun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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