yoda Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 00z UKIE at 96 is just SE of CHS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Can't be the only one watching this Day 8ish storm on GFS nope repeat maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 GFS trying for a repeat at 192? 228 boom! Lol. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Yes please... tasteh http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif It'd be great here for sure. East of 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Can't be the only one watching this Day 8ish storm on GFS Doesn't look like there's any "room" for it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 High confidence...there will be a significant storm. Large scale upper level pattern is quite good and consistent run to run. Track will shift some from run to run. Little east, west, warmer, colder. See saw in some cases. I would lean toward a deeper system further south given the energy diving into that trough. Still room for this to change at h96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Paq Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Did I not hear at least once in here that the CMC has a ns bias? Because that ol' girl is in love with the ss on that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 High confidence...there will be a significant storm. Large scale upper level pattern is quite good and consistent run to run. Track will shift some from run to run. Little east, west, warmer, colder. See saw in some cases. I would lean toward a deeper system further south given the energy diving into that trough. Still room for this to change at h96. Thats good to hear Always nice to see your analysis as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Thats good to hear Always nice to see your analysis as well Thanks Yoda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxhoov Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Ukie should be excellent for the entire forum! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 I wish we could see QPF on UKIE after 72... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 LWX updated their Winter Storm Threat graphic and has the region within the Slight/Yellow phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 UKMET is an excellent run... a 987 low at the BM probably means it's a HECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Like that the UK got the northern low out of the SLP fields after 96hrs, cold air will stay in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 I wish we could see QPF on UKIE after 72... In this case it doesn't matter. It's likely as big or bigger than the gfs or cmc. An offshore track to a sub 990 in that spot off the coast of NNJ is classic. It's a crushing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Gefs are going to be sick if I had to guess. There will probably be 3 or less misses surrounded by big hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 In this case it doesn't matter. It's likely as big or bigger than the gfs or cmc. An offshore track to a sub 990 in that spot off the coast of NNJ is classic. It's a crushing. From your keyboard to God's desktop memo please! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Yup. Don't even need the in between panels. It's almost certainly a crush job. Looks a touch east from the 12z run too. I like that we're right at D4 for onset and even the ends of the goalposts have a siggy event. The old saying that the big ones get sniffed out early comes to mind. 0z has been pretty locked for 4 day leads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Gfs has us 30s or colder through day 10 That is unbelievable for March, and even more incredible considering last month. I guess both December 2015 and Feb 2017 should be enough for people to realize that a record warm month in the winter comes with a price. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Cmc is east of all guidance. It's nice to see one east. We don't want any more west than the gfs. That's for sure Agree. It's unlikely it ends up quite as east as the ggem has it. Even it's own h5 argues against it but it's nice to see that as a buffer against the furthest west we can survive gfs solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 We're within 100 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 If you don't like snow, don't look at the GEFS. Snowfall mean now up to 8.5-9" for DC. Waiting for the individual members to be updated on Weatherbell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Heh, gefs is sick indeed. A few undesirable tracks in there but a bunch of shellackings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 For those who can't see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 The last couple of days have resulted in full-bloom of all ornamentals. Could be interesting to see such spring landscape of flowering trees and shubbery covered in a significant blanket of snow. Don't know that I've seen that. Of course, if the Canadian is right, I probably won't be seeing it this year either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Was just about to post. Mean is east of the op. It's beautiful. Also over an 1" of QPF on the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 A couple of ugly tracks on the GEFS looking at the invidual members, but not sure if it's enough to worry about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Looks like 3 members track it just inland along the coast, 1 tracks the secondary too far north for us, and 2 are too strung out/too far east, and another is a combination of the last two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 A couple of ugly tracks on the GEFS looking at the invidual members, but not sure if it's enough to worry about. It's March in DC...there's always something to worry about. But this is nothing new on the GEFS...it's been showing multiple scenarios for the last several days. It's been slowly consolidating the bad solutions down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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